Hyderabad: The United States democracy, in particular its elections process, is going through its most delicate phase. Over the years, the United States Presidential Elections were known for their excellent policy debates between the leading contenders, remarkably free, fair and open elections, and there was never an iota of doubt regarding the peaceful transfer of power after the elections.
Given the robust electoral democracy at home, the United States often took moral-high ground in international politics and used to chastise various countries across the world for failing to conduct clean elections and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power. Today, the world looks aghast at the deterioration in the US election process.
The political rhetoric in US politics has descended to new low as political opponents are abusing each other as criminals and clowns. The first presidential debate was acrimonious, and there was very little discussion on actual policies between the two contesting presidential candidates. Given the pandemic, a fairly large number of people are voting through absentee ballots.
However, President Trump and others have expressed doubts that these absentee ballots and mail-in provisions are being misused. Political leaders from across the spectrum from various are reaching out to the US Supreme Court with litigations arguing that ballot procedures are being violated or requesting for relaxation of procedures. These developments hint that after the voting there could be prolonged court battle before the results are formalized.
In the midst of all these developments, President Trump did not commit to easy transfer of power. When asked by journalists, he stated that "I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots...and the ballots are a disaster...Get rid of the ballots, and you'll have a very - you'll have a very peaceful - there won't be a transfer, frankly, there'll be a continuation." The fact that the US President did not answer in affirmative that there would be a peaceful transfer of power generated dismay in various world capitals.
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To compound the misery, these elections are taking place in the midst of a pandemic. As a consequence, the usual election activities such as door-to-door campaigns, mega political rallies and other related events were curtailed. However, President Trump went ahead and organised big meetings and claimed that Democrats are not organising similar events because they are not getting big crowds. There is considerable debate in the US today on the nature of an election campaign that should be conducted in the midst of a pandemic. In fact, Trump's approach of moving freely and interacting with a large number of people, before and after contracting COVID-19, has become a deeply contentious issue.
The US government response to the pandemic is an important political issue in the presidential elections. The Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden sharply criticised the current administration for lackadaisical attitude and for failing to protect American people by taking appropriate action to contain the spread of the pandemic. On the other hand, Trump often terms COVID-19 as a "China virus". Such characterisation is an attempt to give credence to the argument that there was a lack of information flows from China about the impending crisis in a timely manner, which contributed to the fatalities in the US.
Further, Trump argues that imposing harsh lockdown would negatively impact the health of the national economy. In the past few days, Trump has argued that the economy is picking up momentum after a slowdown due to the pandemic. It is still not certain as to how people who suffered economically due to the pandemic will vote in the upcoming elections. It is possible that some of them may find Trump's argument of downplaying the pandemic and focus more on allowing the economy to function little more appealing. Interestingly, in a Gallup survey in early October, approximately 54 per cent of Americans felt that Trump's job performance on the economy was good.
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Various pre-election surveys suggest that Joe Biden is way ahead (almost by 9 to 10 per cent) of President Trump in the nationwide polls. On the other hand, in battleground states, the contest between the two contenders seems to be becoming very narrow. According to some polls, in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona Joe Biden is leading by less than three per cent margin. In Iowa and Ohio Trump is leading by less than two per cent margin. These numbers could change in the coming days.
It should be noted that during the previous presidential elections around this time, Senator Hillary Clinton had a clear lead over her rival Donald Trump in various pre-election surveys. However, the election results demonstrated that the pollsters/surveyors could not accurately capture the mood of the nation. In a highly polarised environment, predicting election results is becoming a difficult enterprise. Moreover, in these elections, there was considerable early voting, which is making it difficult to predict the electoral outcomes.
During the campaign, there has been considerable discussion on the personalities of the candidates. Democratic party leaders often sharply criticise Trump for tearing the social fabric of the country and repeated disrespectful behaviour towards the media, minorities and women. Democratic party leaders made persistent attempts to impeach Donald Trump, which did not succeed. On the other hand, Trump and his colleagues also targeted Joe Biden as an establishment man who was in the US Senate for a long time but with very little to show in terms of public policy achievements. President Trump, referring to Joe Biden's son's business dealings, even went to the extent of calling the Biden family "a criminal family."
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If we move away from personality politics, in terms of foreign policy, there is a significant difference between the approaches of Biden and Trump. Joe Biden wrote an article in the noted Foreign Affairs magazine in March. The emphasis of Biden seems to be on non-traditional security issues such as climate change, mass migration, technological disruption, infectious diseases, and the need to combat corruption.
In a lengthy reflection, sadly, India finds mention only once in the whole article. Further, in a paper titled, "Joe Biden's Agenda for Muslim-American Communities" on his campaign website, Kashmir issue was uncharitably clubbed with other issues such as internment camps in Xinjiang and atrocities against Burma's Rohingya Muslims. The paper went on to say that, "in Kashmir, the Indian government should take all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir." Will these policy positions continue if Biden gets elected, it is doubtful to come conclusion at the moment.
On the other hand, Trump's foreign policy performance was mixed. In a big surprise, Trump was able to bring together Israel and other Arab countries. After years of acrimonious relationship, Arab Countries and Israel are moving towards a cooperative relationship also due to the efforts of President Trump. Trump was one of the first presidents to take-on a rising China. While earlier Presidents talked about a tough policy towards China, they did not take any policy measures. On the other hand, President Trump initiated a trade war and has been supporting others, such as Taiwan to stand up to China.
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However, Trump's China strategy lacked an overarching approach, and he neglected relationships with countries in Southeast Asia. The US-Europe relationships also nosedived under President Trump's stewardship. On issues such as Climate Change and strengthening international institutions, Trump did not chart any new path.
On India, Trump often used very harsh words. For instance, disagreeing on the trade issue, President Trump stated that "India is a 'tariff king' and imposes 'tremendously high' tariffs on American products." In the recent Presidential debate, talking about climate change, Trump referred to pollution in India and said: "...it's filthy. The air is filthy."
On the other hand, despite occasional disagreements, India-US relations prospered. India and the US are now actively promoting the Quad framework and are also working to strengthen the concept of Indo-Pacific. In the past few years, India-US defence relations have scaled new heights, and it was evident during the recent standoff in Ladakh with China. India has been deploying heavy airlift aircrafts such as C-17 and others to transport defence equipment to the border regions. The US diplomats and other senior leaders have been supporting Indian positions in various capitals of the world. The defence cooperation between the two countries is becoming structurally strong.
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For instance, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement signed in 2016 allows both countries to access each other's bases for supplies and other replenishments. Similarly, in 2018, both countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, which enabled each other to cooperate in encrypted communication networks. These agreements suggest that both countries are in a trusted relationship. Whoever is the next president, the geopolitical dynamics and the economic relations between the two countries will drive the relationship.
As many analysts noted, this election is a referendum on President Trump and his policies. Whether one agrees or disagrees with Trump, it should be recognised that he is a very unconventional leader. The US has lived with an unconventional leader for four years. Is the US electorate ready to have a president who is often unconventional in his speeches and policies for another four years? We will get to know after the November 03 election.
(Sanjay Pulipaka is a Senior Fellow at the Delhi Policy Group. The views expressed here are personal.)
