New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department has not given any revised date for the onset of the Southwest monsoon which should have arrived five days ago in Kerala. The weather office did predict the onset of monsoon by June 4 in one of its forecast issued in mid-May. However, has not given any revised date after the monsoon missed its date.
Depression evolves-IMD said the depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm. In a bulletin, it said the depression lay about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, at 5.30 am.
"It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea," the Met office said. The IMD had Monday said the formation of the low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea and its intensification is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast.
Monsoon forecast-Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather, in its bulletin, said the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to happen on June 8 or June 9 and it will be a "meek and mild entry". "These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.
Earlier, Skymet predicted the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days. "The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with," according to the private agency said.
Monsoon's date with Kerala- Scientists say the Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In 2002, the southwest monsoon arrived on May 29. The monsoon onset was on June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
Scientists maintain that a slight delay of onset would not have a bearing over the total rainfall over the country during the season. IMD has predicted a normal rainfall for the entire country during the Southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions. As per the prediction, northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall while east and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres. (with Agency inputs)
