New Delhi: The blurred contours of realignment of global forces noticed during the pre-COVID period are now visible clearer than ever before and are hinting towards the polarisation of our world into new power blocks.
To recapitulate very briefly, the disintegration of the USSR at the end of 1991 and the resultant end of the cold war between the power blocks automatically created a unipolar world led by the USA and supported by Europe and other allies. At the time, China was in the infancy of its current strong economic and military stature. India had just begun to rediscover its place in the modern world through globalisation and economic integration with the rest of the world and through diversification of relations.
The Post-Soviet Period
In the post-Soviet period, much has happened, which initially brightened the prospects of a multi-polar world in which China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa were expected to play a significant role in global affairs by reforming the institutions of global governance and creating level- playing fields for the developing countries and emerging economies.
However, for a combination of factors, the world appears to be moving in a different direction. Some of the pull and push factors in this context are discussed below:
The US/Europe- Russia Gap Widens: Russia Drifts Towards China
In the immediate aftermath of the demise of the USSR, the USA and European Union had moved quickly to fill the post-Soviet space with multiple political ideological, economic and strategic objectives. They wanted to make the demise of communism in Europe irreversible and integrate the newly emerged independent countries completely with Euro- Atlantic structures.
The abundance of energy resources in the Caspian and Central Asia were of immense interest, in particular to Europe for reducing dependence on Russian Federation. The rapid Eastwards expansion of the EU and NATO’s presence in the back yard of Russian Federation, tolerated/ignored by the Russian President Boris Yeltsin was firmly resisted by the Russian President Putin from 2000 onwards on the plea that it would have adverse implications for Russia’s security. (Russia describes former Soviet Republics and USSR satellite counties in its immediate neighbourhood as Russia’s “Near Abroad” and considers it as a sphere of its natural influence).
The declaration in April 2008 that Georgia and Ukraine would be admitted into NATO (at an unspecified date) and the recognition of the independence of Kosovo by the American and some European nations provoked Russia to recognise (August 2008) the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia -two breakaway regions of Georgia- and later cause accession of Crimea in Ukraine in 2014.
For these and other reasons, the gulf between Russia and the West widened, particularly after Russia was put to economic hardships caused by the American punitive sanctions. Russia’s accelerated drift towards China in search of a convenient partner was thus inevitable.
China-Russia: Engagement Increases Manifold
The Russia-China relations have evolved over a period of time to reach by 2019 a “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for the new era”, which envisages bilateral cooperation in a wide range of spheres, besides adopting a coordinated approach on regional and global issues. The two- way trade has crossed $100bn mark to reach over $ 108 billion in 2018, with no serious issues on the balance of trade. Energy has emerged as one of the key sectors which offer a win-win situation for the two countries. Cooperation in the defence sector is on the ascendancy.
Border disputes have more or less been resolved. The relations are turning out to be mutually complementary and supplementary.
China and Iran Move Closer
The US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear deal (May 2018) and re-imposition of stringent sanctions on Iran hit hard the Iranian economy. Earlier, the USA had enacted (August 2017) CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) and imposed sanctions on Iran, Russia and North Korea and placed restrictions on other countries’ dealings with America’s adversaries.
Amidst deterioration of relations between Iran and the USA, there are reports of a $400bn economic and security deal between China and Iran. China is expected to invest inter-alia in Iran’s energy sector and in return receive discounted oil and gas. The deal would undercut the USA efforts to isolate Iran and punish it for its alleged nuclear ambitions.
China’s Expansion of Axis of Convenience
The global scenario has thus evolved in a manner which has facilitated a gradual formation of an axis of convenience between China, Russia and Iran. Pakistan and North Korea were already more-or-less China’s client- States. More recently Nepal and Sri Lanka also appear to have joined the China camp. Nepal’s cartographic encroachment on India’s territory and Sri Lanka’s decision to review the Sri Lanka-India-japan joint project for the development of East Container Terminal at Colombo port are obviously at the behest of China. China can count on support from some smaller countries in Africa and elsewhere.
Alignment of Global Forces Against China
According to Reuters, the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, (a government-affiliated think tank associated with China’s top intelligence agency) circulated an internal report in April 2020 in which it concluded that “global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.” A frank and candid conclusion indeed.
Reuters have not revealed further details. The multiple reasons are, however, well-known and some of them are discussed below. A high degree of trust deficit had existed for quite some time between China and the rest of the world. It was caused primarily by the growing power, footprints and influence of China across the continents and its ambition to conquer the world through economic enslavement through unfair means.
China’s international aid and assistance policy, development of infrastructure projects, particularly under Belt and Road Initiative and its by-product i.e. China’s “debt-trap policy”, are all considered as having serious geo-political and strategic and security implications.
Most of the large countries, including the USA and India, are concerned over huge trade deficits with China and its systematically increasing stakes in global companies and institutions of global governance. China’s policy of restricted access to foreign companies to its markets and preferential treatment for its state-run enterprises are also a cause of concern.
China is accused of indulging in cyber espionage. China’s aggression in the disputed South China Sea and the East China Sea is considered a threat to freedom of navigation and aviation in a region through which international trade worth billions of dollars is routed. China’s suspected role in spreading Covid19 pandemic, coupled with China’s attempts to take advantage of the on-going crisis by selling faulty medical equipment and to acquire distressed assets abroad has not only made further dents on the international image and reputation of China but has also resulted in an anti-China campaign whose objective is to hit China where it hurts most- the economy of China.
The idea is to weaken its economy and thereby curtail its global ambitions. Mechanisms are being devised to scrupulously monitor its investments; contracts awarded to Chines companies are being reviewed/cancelled, Huawei’s entry is being blocked and the manufacturing companies are being offered incentives to move out of China.
The USA and partners are flexing maritime muscles in Indo-Pacific Ocean and the QUAD (US-Japan- Australia-India grouping) is meant to warn China against its expansionist designs in the region. The USA is most vocal in its anti-China tirade; the EU is also hardening its positions, and Japan, Australia and some ASEAN countries have their own reasons to be on board. There is a strong popular anti-China sentiment building up in India as well.
The Net Result
The net result of the on-going realignments is that we may soon see two distinct groups in open confrontation with each other. Interestingly, the group being encouraged by the USA consists of countries which subscribe to universal values such as democracy, rule of law, transparency, respect for human rights and minorities etc., whereas the same cannot be said about the other group which has China as its epicentre and Russia, Pakistan, North Korea and Iran as its prominent members, who have scant regard for universally accepted values. Are we then heading for a “coalition of democracies” versus “axis of autocrats”?
