Guwahati: Five seats of Assam namely Karimganj, Silchar, Nagaon, Diphu and Darrang will go to polls for the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 26. Both the BJP and Congress consider these constituencies crucial. In the first phase, voting was held in five of the 14 constituencies of upper Assam on April 19.
In the second phase, the major focus is on Karimganj and Nagaon constituencies, where a significant influence of religious demographics is expected to be witnessed on voting patterns, similar to previous elections.
Karimganj:
This constituency bordering Bangladesh has 1412239 voters including a sizable Muslim population (estimated at 65% according to minority organisations). This seat is considered to be a traditional vote bank for the Congress and AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front). However, the BJP won the seat in 2019 by a narrow margin, capitalising on Hindu and other voters (estimated at 35%). This time, with the seat being general after the recent delimitation of constituencies in Assam (no longer reserved for Scheduled Tribes), there's a high turnout expected among Muslim voters.
Both the BJP and Congress are facing some challenges here. Major challenge for congress are:
- Two Congress MLAs under Karimganj Lok Sabha seat, Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha and Siddique Ahmed are campaigning for the BJP publicly. Even they had campaigned for BJP in Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's election rallies.
- To woo Muslim voters, the CM made two key promises ~ granting khilonjia (aborigines) status to the fisherman community and forming a development council for the Kiran Sheikh community.
Silchar:
Silchar, a major urban centre in Barak Valley, is currently reserved for Scheduled Castes. A total of 1,361,496 people will cast their votes in Silchar, which is the second largest city in Assam in terms of area and population. The seven assembly constituencies under the Silchar Lok Sabha constituency are Silchar, Sonai, Dhalai (SC), Udharband, Lakhipur, Barkhala and Katigarah.
This constituency, dominated by Bengali voters, has traditionally witnessed a battle between the BJP and Congress for several decades. Congress dominated the seat till 2014, winning it eight times. This time, the main fight is expected to be between BJP's Parimal Shuklabaidya and Congress' Suryakanta Sarkar. The BJP is more confident in Silchar due to a perceived Hindu majority. TMC has also fielded a candidate in this constituency. West Bengal CM Mamata Benarjee campaigned for TMC candidate Radheshyam Biswash in a public meeting recently in Silchar.
Nowgong:
Like Karimganj, Nowgong is another constituency where the BJP is trying hard to wrest control from Congress. This constituency has a significant Muslim population (estimated at 58% according to Hindu and minority organisations). Historically, Nowgong was a BJP stronghold, winning the Lok Sabha seat four consecutive times from 1999 to 2014. Despite earlier claims of not requiring Muslim votes, CM campaigned in the Muslim-dominated assembly segments namely Dhing, Lahorighat and Rupahi for BJP candidate Suresh Bora. This time, the contest is expected to be between the sitting Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi and BJP's Suresh Bora, a former Congress leader who switched to the saffron party before the election. The AIUDF candidate, MLA Aminul Islam, could pose a challenge to Congress by splitting the Muslim vote.
According to the Election Commission, the total number of voters in the 9th Nowgong Lok Sabha constituency is 18,04,471. The eight assembly constituencies are Jagiroad, Laharighat, Morigaon , Dhing , Ruphihat , Samaguri , Nagaon-Batadrava and Raha (SC). Of which, four seats namely Laharighat, Dhing, Ruphihat and Samaguri are minority-dominated. This time BJP has concentrated on these Muslim populated seats. CM and his ministers had also taken part in several election rallies in Lahorighat, Rupahihat, Dhing and Samaguri.
Diphu/ autonomous district :
Diphu, a constituency reserved for Scheduled Tribes, is formed by three autonomous hill districts namely Dima Hasao, Karbi Anglong and West Karbi Anglong. The voters here primarily belong to Karbi and Dimasa communities. BJP's Horensingh Bey won the seat in 2019. This time, the key candidates are BJP's Amarsing Tisso, Congress's Joy Ram Engleng and ASDC (Autonomous State Demand Committee's) Jotson Bey. The total number of voters in Diphu constituency is 893058.
Darrang-Udalguri:
Darrang-Udalguri Lok Sabha constituency, with 11 assembly segments, has a mix of Bodo, Koch-Rajbongshi, and other communities. The total number of voters in this constituency is 21,87,160. Currently held by the BJP, Darrang-Udalguri will see a contest between BJP's sitting MP Dilip Saikia and former Congress MP Madhab Rajbangshi. The Bodoland People's Front (BPF), dominant force in the Bodoland Territorial Region, has also fielded a candidate, Durga Das Bodo. However, the Muslim-dominated Dalgaon assembly segment with over 6.9 lakh voters is crucial. A split in the Congress vote bank in Dalgaon seat due to the BPF candidate Durga Das Bodo could make it easier for the BJP to win Darrang-Udalguri.
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