India-Male Ties to Face a Lot of Turbulence; Ball Is in Muizzu's Court, Says Expert

The future of India-Maldives relations depends on President Muizzu's decisions. His past behaviour suggests that he may continue to take Maldives closer to China, writes ETV Bharat's Chandrakala Choudhury.

New Delhi:The relationship between India and Maldives is likely to face a lot of turbulence. Additionally, Muizzu, the current leader of Maldives, is expected to strengthen ties with China as there are no longer any legislative constraints. This situation is likely to be challenging for India, Harsh V Pant, Vice-President for Studies at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, told ETV Bharat.

This comes as Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won the election in a landslide victory on Sunday. According to sources, the People’s National Congress (PNC) won 70 out of 93 seats to take full control of Parliament and the main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is seen as pro-India, won only 15 seats this time against 65 in the previous Parliament.

The recent electoral victory of the Pro-China party in Maldives is likely to have a significant impact on the relationship between India and Maldives, according to an expert on the subject Harsh V Pant. He warns that there could be a lot of turbulence ahead as President Muizzu is expected to view this win as an endorsement of his policies, which are known to target India. With no legislative constraints, he will steer the country closer to China, which could create a challenging situation for India and Maldives.

“Therefore, it is important for President Muizzu to recognise the significance of India-Maldives relations and manage them effectively. Failure to do so could lead to significant consequences for Maldives as well as a negative impact on the bilateral ties between India and Maldives”, Pant added.

In the current scenario, the future of India-Maldives relations depends on President Muizzu's decisions. His past behaviour suggests that he may continue to take Maldives closer to China, which could lead to significant turbulence in the bilateral relationship. It is crucial for Muizzu to understand the importance of India-Maldives relations and manage them in a balanced manner. An anti-India policy or rhetoric could prove costly, not only for the bilateral relationship, but also for the Maldives as it is never a good idea for any country to put its eggs entirely in one basket i.e; the Chinese basket in particular, the expert explained.

With China being the beneficiary, it is imperative for Muizzu to recognise the significance of India-Maldives relations and take appropriate measures to balance his foreign policy assumptions. In the end, the ball is in Muizzu's court, and he needs to decide how he wants to shape the future of this relationship, Pant said.

The recent election in the Maldives has taken place amidst the already strained relationship between Maldives and India. Since President Muizzu has assumed power, his anti-India campaign during last year's presidential election has caused serious concerns for India. Muizzu has even forced India to withdraw its military personnel operating three aviation platforms in the Maldives by May this year. To add to this, Muizzu went against the traditional policy and visited China in January this year where he met with top Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping. This visit resulted in the signing of a defence cooperation agreement and several other infrastructure develop

The diplomatic tussle between the two countries took an ugly turn after a few Maldivian politicians made derogatory remarks against India and PM Modi following his visit to Lakshadweep in January 2024. PM Modi's visit was viewed as an attempt to boost tourism in the archipelago at the cost of Maldives.

It is important to note that Maldives is India's key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and occupies a special place in its initiatives like SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the Neighbourhood First Policy of India.

The impact of the strained India-Maldives relations is not just limited to diplomatic ties, but extends to tourism diplomacy as well. Maldives, once a popular destination for Indian tourists, has seen a significant decline in Indian visitors, with India now ranking sixth in the top 10 markets for Maldives tourism. This is in contrast to China, which has emerged as the top market for Maldives tourism. This shift in tourism statistics highlights the need for both nations to work towards improving their bilateral relations. It is crucial for Maldives to recognise the significance of India-Maldives ties and balance its foreign policy assumptions to avoid negative impacts on the bilateral relationship. A balanced approach would not only benefit both countries, but also ensure the prosperity of the tourism industry in the Maldives.

The Maldives' Ministry of Tourism released its monthly report on tourist arrivals recently. According to the report, as many as 56,208 Indian tourists visited Maldives between January and March 2023. This number declined to 34,847 in January-March 2024. Meanwhile, 17,691 tourists from China visited Maldives during January-March 2023. It rose to 67,399 during January-March 2024.

Meanwhile, congratulating the Maldives on its win, China on Monday said it would seek to strengthen ties with the Maldives. "China is willing to work with the Maldives to maintain traditional friendship (and) expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

"Beijing aimed to continuously deepen the China-Maldives comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership as well as accelerate the construction of a community with a shared future for China and the Maldives and better benefit of the people belonging to two countries”, Wenbin said during a regular press briefing. "We congratulate the Maldives on successfully holding its parliamentary election and fully respect the choice made by the Maldivian people," Wang said.

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