UP Polls: Cow factor and BJP's course correction for last 2 phases

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's photos have gone missing from party posters and banners put up in Gorakhpur and the BJP slogans across the state have also been slightly, but significantly been modified, writes senior journalist Srinanand Jha.Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's photos have gone missing from party posters and banners put up in Gorakhpur and the BJP slogans across the state have also been slightly, but significantly been modified, writes senior journalist Srinanand Jha.

If cows emerged as the major campaign theme ahead of Sunday's poll for 61 seats across 12 Uttar Pradesh districts in the fifth phase, the reasons are not far to find. Eastern UP where the six and seventh phases of the poll are scheduled, is among the most poverty-stricken and backward of the country's areas, with a landholding of a mere 600 square metres per person against the national average of 1.1 hectares. For voters in the fifth, sixth and seventh phase, who mostly own small and scattered plots, the menace from stray cattle remains an issue of predominant and critical concern.

In keeping with the earlier phases, the voting percentage for the fifth phase--encompassing 12 districts across Ayodhya, Amethi, Chitrakoot, Rae Bareli and Shravasti--remained at a modest 55 per cent. The "beneficiary factor" (of providing direct monetary benefits to the poor) was also likely to have a bigger resonance in this underdeveloped region. But, the question hangs: Has the BJP in the fifth phase been able to compensate for its perceived losses of the earlier phases?

What has changed since 2017

In the previous 2017 elections, the BJP together with alliance partner Apna Dal had won 50 of the region's 61 seats while the Samajwadi Party had been wiped out and the Bahujan Samaj Party had won in only three seats. Yadavs and Muslims are considered core supporters of the SP, but do not constitute a huge chunk of voters with the non-Yadav OBC such as the Kurmis and Keoris existing in big numbers.

Scheduled Castes make up for 22.5 per cent of the electorate in the region, but these communities are divided between the Jatav voters (comprising BSP chief Mayawati's loyal vote bank) and other backward communities, including the Pasis, Dhobis and the Koris. In the previous elections, the BJP had been able to string together a rainbow coalition of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Scheduled Castes. Sections of Pasi and Maurya voters are reported to have moved away from the BJP, while OBC castes, including the Kurmis, are also said to be disenchanted with the saffron party because of what is perceived as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's preference on promoting the Rajput community.

Sections of Backward and OBC voters are said to be disenchanted with the BJP for multiple reasons. These include the grievance that the Central government has "diluted" the reservation policy by including the Economically Weaker Sections in the category. Ground reports also suggest that sections of OBCs and Dalits have drifted away from the party because persons belonging to these communities are said to have been the targets of what is called the UP government's "thoko niti" (encounter policy).

The BJP's course correction

There are signs of a course correction being attempted by the saffron party ahead of the remaining two phases of the poll. Certain noteworthy developments of the past few days: First, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's photos have gone missing from party posters and banners put up in Gorakhpur where he is also the candidate. Gorakhpur is scheduled to go to polls in the sixth phase on March 2. Second, the BJP slogans across the state have also been slightly, but significantly been modified.

The earlier slogan said, "Soch Imaandaar, Kaam Damdar, Abki Baar Yogi Sarkar." The revised version reads: "Soch Imaandaar, Kaam Damdar, abki baar BJP sarkar." It is also not insignificant that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has, in recent days, been seeking votes in his own name. Speaking at a recent rally, the Prime Minister raised the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war, asking people whether in these turbulent times did not the people want a strong Prime Minister? Modi has also asked for votes as repayment for the "salt" or free meals provided to the poor by the Central government. He has also sought to raise an emotional appeal, stating at a recent gathering that "some people wanted him dead."

It is also significant that former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharti's photos have appeared alongside Modi in the party hoardings and posters put up in Gorakhpur. Bharti has been the party's backward face and has a following amongst the OBCs in Madhya Pradesh, as also in pockets of Bundelkhand. But, to project her in Eastern UP indicates that the BJP think tank realises that the Hindutva factor is not as effective as earlier.

Yogi's strengths and weaknesses

Yogi Adityanath is arguably the BJP's most popular face after Prime Minister Modi. The party's campaign for this election, therefore, has been contested under his leadership. The Prime Minister has also come up with slogans such as "Yogi hai Upyogi Hai" (Yogi is Useful) and "Aayega to Yogi Hi" (Only Yogi will win). At the same time, the BJP leadership is seen as having downplayed Yogi on a number of occasions.

Political talk has, in past months, veered around speculations that Yogi had desired and even made preparations to contest from Ayodhya, but the move was stymied at the last hour by the Central party leadership. The result of all this; the BJP election machinery this time has not appeared as united and robust as earlier, with the party cadres lacking in enthusiasm. The BJP could still reach the majority mark when votes are counted on March 10, but the party is unlikely to retain its earlier strength in the assembly.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer, facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)