'For India, Solih has to win': Maldives Foreign Minister's India visit more about presidential election than assistance

New Delhi: Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid's India visit comes two months ahead of the presidential election in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation.

During the course of the visit, Shahid held a meeting with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and also delivered the 43rd Sapru House Lecture on the topic 'The Power of Small – The Maldives Story'. Shahid’s visit comes just a month after the visit of Minister of State for External Affairs V. Muraleedharan to the Maldives during the course of which the two sides signed 10 more projects for funding under the $100-million additional assistance given by India.

As part of New Delhi’s Neighborhood First Policy, the Maldives is strategically significant to India because of its location in the Indian Ocean. India and the Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in antiquity and enjoy close, cordial and multi-dimensional relations. However, regime instability in the Maldives since 2008 has posed significant challenges to the India-Maldives relationship, particularly in the political and strategic spheres.

A source with expertise on the politics of the Maldives told ETV Bharat said that Shahid’s latest visit had more to do with the Maldivian presidential election scheduled for September 9 than with developmental assistance issues. Incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is seeking re-election after having defeated Speaker of the Majlis and former President Mohamed Nasheed in the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) primaries in January this year.

Following the primaries, Nasheed and Solih, both childhood friends, fell out politically. A few months down the line, Nasheed quit the MDP and floated a new political outfit called The Democrats. According to the source, Nasheed has claimed that he has 6,500 members in his party against the mandated minimum of 3,000 members needed to form a political party. This has sparked speculations as the MDP too has claimed that its membership has gone up. From where did Nasheed get all these members for his party?

As of now, there are four candidates in the fray. Apart from President Solih, Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhooree Party and Mohamed Nazim of the Maldives National Party (MNP) are out campaigning. Founded by Nazim in 2021, the MNP will be facing its first major national elections. However, the main contest is expected between Solih and former President Abdulla Yameen of the People’s Party of Maldives (PPM).

Yameen, who had antagonised India with pro-China policies during his presidency, has been jointly nominated by the PPM and the People’s National Congress (PNC). He is currently serving an 11-year prison term in connection with a money-laundering case. He will be able to contest only if he manages to gain freedom before August 3 when nominations close. If Yameen does not contest, he may nominate another candidate from his party, according to the source.

Meanwhile, Nasheed is yet to name a candidate from his newly-formed party for the presidential election. According to the source, in fact, Yameen’s party had approached Nasheed for a tie-up. But Nasheed was initially against this because of the PPM’s ‘India Out’ campaign. Following this, Yameen has been going slow with his 'India Out' campaign for some months now. Nasheed then suggested to Yameen that they should put up a consensus candidate against Solih. But Yameen had immediately rejected the proposal.

Meanwhile, none of the parties has announced a vice-presidential candidate. “Putting up a vice-presidential candidate will bring extra votes,” the source said. “Solih has not yet decided on a running mate. (Foreign Minister) Shahid may become the running mate of Solih.” The source added that Shahid may eye the presidential election five years from now. According to the constitution of the Maldives, one person cannot be president for more than two terms. Solih has been President since 2018.

But as of now, New Delhi will be happy if Solih goes on to win the election as he is seen as pro-India. “For India, Solih has to win,” the source said. “Solih is identified too much with India. The reverse is also true.”