Last October, the Indian government, normally reticent in taking sides in a fratricidal conflict, decided to export $249 million worth of lethal weapons to Armenia, which is locked in an extended standoff with its neighbor, Azerbaijan- a troubled legacy of the breakup of Soviet Union. This is not the first time India sold arms to willing nations, but this is indeed decidedly a unique moment for India’s foreign policy as it decides to arm Armenia so that it could fight off Azerbaijan, which is siding with interests hostile to India.
The weapons that India is selling to Armenia include the extremely lethal and effective multi-barrel rocket launcher, PINAKA, that had acquitted itself at the Kargil war. Through its rapid firing ability, it can clear an area of about a kilometer. Armenian army that came to grief at the hands of Azerbaijan's reinforced armed forces equipped with Turkish weaponized drones, Bayraktor, and more hopes to turn its fortunes around with Indian weapons.
Though Azerbaijan is very close to Israel, a major weapon supplier and a close friend to New Delhi, the complex ties that both the countries (Azerbaijan and Armenia) share gives a twist to the conflict. India’s reservations are about the growing nexus between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan. Though too many contradictions reside in this relationship as Israel, European Union and US are also close to Baku, but New Delhi has its own views on how this nexus will play out in its neighborhood and how it will empower Pakistan.
The flip side of this view suggests that too much must not be seen in this sale of weapons as India is largely filling in the weapon needs of Armenia after Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukraine War. The big question is did India send in all these weapon systems at the request of a beleaguered Russia?
Be that as it may, the Indian government has shown a certain penchant to emerge as a global weapon supplier. In 2022 alone, it is expected to sell weapons worth Rs. 13,000 crores to all kinds of countries. The government expects to earn Rs.35,000 crores in the next 2 years. These include a $375 million Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, which is an outcome of Indo-Russian collaboration. The first major buyer of Brahmos is the Philippines. The Indian government is in conversation with Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia for new orders, which is expected to earn the joint venture, Brahmos Aerospace Company $ 5 billion by 2025.
In all, there are 25 countries where 50 Indian defense export companies sell their goods and systems. Besides Armenia which bought the multi-barrel gun from an Indian private sector company, Solar, there are other companies that have sold helicopters and weapon-locating radars. A defense manufacturer told this writer that there is growing optimism in the defense sector. More domestic manufacturers are pitching for tenders floated by ordnance factories after this sector has been reconstituted. Their worry, though, is that the bulk of the contracts in the coming days will go to the big boys of the industry, Adani, Ambani, Tatas, Larsen, and Toubro etc. In their view, the small companies will either disappear or will be forced to work for them. The belief is that such a consolidation of the sector would limit the growth of the ancillary units of the defense sector.
The bigger story emerging from the defense sector reportedly is the suggestion emanating from the US that it could help India replace Russia as an arms supplier. To a question on reasons behind India’s dependence on Russia, Western think tanks claiming access to Pentagon thinking have been claiming that the only way New Delhi will part ways from Moscow is if it stops relying on its Russian weapon systems. And that would be possible if it stops importing them from Russia and becomes self-reliant. India is one of the highest arms importers in the world. The belief is that some of the weapon manufacturing factories that are under US sway in erstwhile Soviet republics like war-torn Ukraine could be relocated to India. Contrarily, India could have a licensing arrangement with these companies.
Though no official word has come from the defense ministry, informed sources claim that India’s dependence on Russia for weapons is not irreplaceable and is constantly reducing. Though there are misgivings about how the Ukraine conflict will impact the supplies of Russian wares to India, what is indubitable is that the weapons from Moscow cannot be easily forgotten. It was in 2021 that Russian President Vladimir Putin operationalized the anti-missile system, S-400. This system, which makes many Indian cities safe from hostile attacks from enemies, has rankled the US administration for quite some time. The US has threatened to take action against India under the provision of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), but decided to put this issue on hold. Russia has also supplied 71 percent of the 600 odd fighter jets to India. India is dependent on its spares and ordinance on Russia for this. Besides, India makes AK-203 under license, T-90s and T-72s, and much more. It’s a relationship that has survived the test of time, but now the West wants India to distance itself from Moscow soonest. Is it even possible?
