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Bihar NDA proves exit polls wrong, pips Mahagathbandhan

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Published : Nov 11, 2020, 7:48 AM IST

The Bihar NDA proved the exit polls wrong, as it secured a simple majority in the Assembly. The exit polls had given an edge to the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, which fell short of the NDA in the actual results.

Bihar Election
Bihar Election

Hyderabad: With the results for the Assembly elections in Bihar finally being officially announced in the wee hours of Wednesday, the ruling NDA has secured a simple majority, thereby retaining power in the state.

The result, however, differs from the exit polls which either predicted a fractured verdict or gave an edge to the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

Exit Polls vs Actual Results
Exit Polls vs Actual Results

Here's a look at the difference between the prediction made by the popular exit polls in the country and the actual results announced.

Several exit polls gave the RJD-led Opposition alliance in Bihar an edge over the ruling NDA while a few even predicted a clear majority for the Mahagathbandhan which had projected Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face.

The actual results, however, were starkly different, as the BJP outshone its alliance partner JD(U) to win a whopping 74 seats, thereby carrying the NDA safely over the majority mark.

The Mahagathbandhan performed below the exit poll predictions, as they could only manage 110 seats, falling 12 short of the magic number.

Read: Exit polls give Mahagathbandhan the advantage in Bihar

However, what most of the exit polls got right was their prediction that the RJD (75 seats) would again emerge as the single largest party in the 243-member Assembly along with a clear dip in the seat tally of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) (43 seats -- down from 71 in 2015).

Exit polls are typically based on feedback from a limited number of voters in select areas and none of them has a 100 per cent accuracy record.

In the last Assembly elections held in 2015, the RJD had won 80 seats with a vote share of 18 per cent, while JD(U) won 71 seats with a vote share of 11 per cent. The BJP had won 53 seats with 24 per cent vote share and Congress had 27 seats and seven per cent votes.

At that time, the JD(U) had fought the election in alliance with the RJD and Congress among other parties, while LJP was in the BJP-led NDA alliance. The LJP had got two seats with five per cent vote share.

This time, JD(U) is back in the NDA, while LJP fought the election alone. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when both JD(U) and LJP were in the NDA, the alliance had won 39 out of 40 seats in the state.

Read: NDA gets simple majority in Bihar assembly; BJP comes out with flying colours

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