Hyderabad: States are worrying about a regional war in Middle East, following a series of attacks in Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and Iraq over the past several days. Hamas infiltrated Israel on Oct. 7, killed some 1,200 people and kidnapped another 240. More than 100 hostages remain in Gaza. Israel’s retaliatory strikes have killed around 22,000 people.
Sayyed Razi Mousavi, one of the top Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders was killed on 25/12/2023 in Syria. On 2/1/2024, Hamas deputy leader al-Arouri was killed, along with six others, in a drone strike in Beirut. The twin explosions on 3/1/2024 killed nearly 100 people in Iran, at the tomb of Qassem Soleimani (the late Iranian military commander who was killed in a 2019 U.S. drone strike), in Iran.
Tensions in the region soared up even higher on 4/1/2024 after United States (US) launched a drone strike in Baghdad that killed the Iran-backed militia leader Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi. In addition to these incidents, earlier, on 31/12/2023, the US navy sank three Houthi boats, killing all the crew members, in response to a distress call from a cargo ship.
As of 4/1/2024, there had been 25 attacks against commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, more than a dozen countries led by the Washington issued a warning against Houthi militants to face consequences against continuing their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, a sea lane that is vital to the global economy.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel has been targeted on several fronts including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria (West Bank), Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. Lebanese Hezbollah from the north; Hamas from the South; Houthi group from Yemen; Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Syrian groups funded by Iran bring the war to Israel’s borders.
At the backdrop of this scenario, according to media, Israel established a new unit, known as Nili, (The Eternity of Israel Will Not Lie) to hunt down and eliminate every individual who played a role in the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation (7 October attacks). By the assassination of Reza Mousavi and Hamas no.2 Saleh al-Arouri, Israel gave a clear message to important persons of Hamas --Mohammed Deif, Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, Moussa Abu Marzouk and to Hassan Nasrallah, the Shia cleric head of Hezbollah, that they are not safe anywhere.
Israel has also conveyed that it will no longer tolerate Hezbollah’s military activity in Lebanon south of the Litani River, despite the rulings of UN Resolution 1701(2006) that ended the Israeli-Lebanon war. Yet, Israel may not currently wish to take risk by opening a new clash with Iran but its strikes seems to be part of a policy of eliminating those who involved the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation.
Tehran wants to hold the Middle East according to its strategic interests, with an intention to impede the progress of improving diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab countries; pressuring the US to withdraw its forces stationed in Iraq, Syria and the Arabian Gulf and to fortify its control in nearby international waters.
Iran is also developing its strategic relationship with China and Russia through the joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean (January 2023) and the naval exercises “Security Bond-2023” in Gulf of Oman in north Arabian Sea. Such strategic environment and in the context of the killing of Mousavi and bomb explosions, experts opine that Iran does not want to engage in a direct war and prefers to prolong the proxy war with the assistance of the axis of resistance which encompasses militant groups in Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria.
Instead of war, these groups backed by Tehran may escalate attacks against Israel’s interests anywhere. Hezbollah is unlikely to declare full scale war against Israel but it may probably increase the intensity of its nonstop attacks on northern Israel. Instead of retaliating across the Israel border with Lebanon, Hezbollah may target Israel by attacking diplomatic missions and Jewish Diaspora.
Iran brought Hamas into the conflict by providing with funds, weapons, and training to attack Israel on land and equipped Houthis to try to blockade the Red Sea. It will continue this process and also, threaten key oil shipping lanes by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would wrap up the oil trade, increases oil prices.
Although the US does not want a full-blown war, the current conflict may lead to dangerous situation, if a mass casualty attack by Iranian proxies against a US or allied ship in the Red Sea sustains serious damage, it calls for a robust military action. As well, the presence of US navy and the Iranian destroyer raised the possibility of miscalculations with rival navies operating in close quarters in troubled waters.
Meanwhile, the capricious circumstances resumed the hijacking of commercial ships and attempted hijackings by suspected pirates near the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea region was after a six-year quiet period. Recently, Indian naval commandos on 5/1/24 foiled a hijack attempt of a bulk carrier, MV Lila Norfolk, off Somalia's coast and rescued all the 21 crew members, including 15 Indians.
The Indian Navy has amplified its surveillance of the Arabian Sea after a recent raise of attacks in the region. After the Israel-Hamas war, the economy of Iran is weak due to the decline of Rial against the US dollar. Consequently, it is not in Iran’s interest to get complicated by directly engaging the war, but, its strategy to build up the resistance axis will go on.
In case of Israel, it is also not interested to take risk by opening new war front with Iran, however, it will go on with its targeted killings. In the meantime, US is planning to step up diplomatic efforts with Lebanon as part of an effort to pressure Hezbollah not to escalate the conflict. Therefore the chances of regional war are rather reasonably low, but higher than before.
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According to retired Adm. James Stavridis, “the chances of a regional war in the Middle East go up from 15% to as high as 30%.” The higher degree of regional war would impact the global economic, military and political ramifications. US and its allies as well as India who has cordial relations with both Russia and Iran have good reasons to avoid the explosive environment by addressing the real reason for the disorder of the region.
