New Delhi: With geopolitical analysts predicting a new cold war with the threat of incursion by Moscow on Ukraine seeming imminent, one thing that would likely to remain constant is New Delhi’s equation with both Russia and United States. In this context, experts says that New Delhi is likely to maintain a diplomatic stand wherein it will neither upset Russia nor will dismay the US.
Talking to ETV Bharat, Dr Rajan Kumar, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU says that it is pertinent to note here that when Russia in 2014 incorporated Crimea into its ambit, New Delhi did not criticise the move by Moscow which triggered a new escalation in the region and said that "there are legitimate Russian and other interests involved and we hope they are discussed and resolved.”
At this critical juncture, New Delhi is likely to maintain its status-quo in such a situations and is likely to pronounce that this issue needs to be resolved by taking all the stakeholders into account and that they all should negotiate peacefully says Dr Rajan.
In the same light, India on Wednesday at the UNSC open debate on the Middle East reiterated its firm and unwavering commitment to the peaceful resolution of the Palestine issue and supported a negotiated two-state solution.
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Dr Rajan further underscores the significance of Indo-Russia's relations and adds that it is unlikely that New Delhi would take a stand which could upset Moscow. On the equation that the threat of incursion by Moscow on Ukraine seems imminent, the tumultuous situation in the region indicates that the situation is unlikely to get resolved in a shorter span of time.
While the United States is taking loud measures against Russia, the latter knows that US being too much focused on the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea would not send its troops into the region. Also, Moscow knows that there is a division in European countries, primarily the biggest blocks of EU, Germany and France adds Dr Rajan.
Also, Europe is dependent on Russia for gas supply as 30% of the natural resource comes from the latter and the former would certainly not want that this supply gets halted during the peak winters.
When being asked whether the US could put sanctions on India over S-400 missiles if New Delhi does not supports US on this crisis, Dr Rajan reiterates that firstly India would note take any stand which could put a stain on Indo-Russia's relations.
Secondly, there is no point over putting sanctions on India by US over S-400 because the entire Asia Pacific policy drafted under the Obama regime, which continues today in a much rigorous way, would fail if any sanctions are put against India. And US knows that in this region, India is their major ally.
