Lucknow: The battle for Uttar Pradesh will begin on Thursday with polling scheduled to take place in 58 assembly seats spread across 11 districts in the western part of the state. The seven-phase polls that will conclude on March 7 will decide the fate of 403 members of the Legislative Assembly in Uttar Pradesh. The votes will be counted on March 10. The term of the current assemblies in Uttar Pradesh will expire on 14 March 2022.
Apart from Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur, and, Uttarakhand are also going for polls. Whereas, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Goa will vote on February 14th. Polls in Manipur are to be held in two-phase on February 27th and March 3.
In UP, the campaigning in the constituencies going to vote in the first round of the seven-phase election in the politically crucial state ended on Tuesday evening. The polling will start at 7 am in these constituencies according to the guidelines of the Election Commission to ensure Covid-safe polls. The voting will end at 6 pm. Ministers whose fate will be decided in the first phase include Shrikant Sharma, Suresh Rana, Sandeep Singh, Kapil Dev Agarwal, Atul Garg and Chowdhury Lakshmi Narain.
Jat-dominated areas
The first phase will cover the Jat-dominated belt of western UP from where farmers had participated actively in the stir against the Centre's three agri laws in the national capital. The districts where the elections will be held in the first phase are Shamli, Hapur, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, and Agra. At least 36 seats in the Purvanchal region are going to be a gamechanger in the government formation in the state. They all fall in the five districts of Jaunpur, Gazipur, Chandauli, Mirzapur, and Bhadohi. The seats come under the Varanasi Parliamentary Constituency from where PM Modi won the MP seat twice.
Previous trends indicate that those political parties which won the majority of these 36 seats were able to form the government in Uttar Pradesh. In 2007, the Mayawati government was constituted in Uttar Pradesh because the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) then secured 20 seats out of the 36. In 2012 assembly polls, the Samajwadi Party under the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav secured 21 of the 36 seats. The party eventually formed the government after securing a majority in the assembly elections. In 2017, the BJP fought UP elections without any CM-face. Despite this, the saffron party came out victorious on 21 of the 36 seats in Purvanchal, and later Yogi Adityanath was named as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.
As many as 623 candidates are in the fray in the first phase and around 2.27 crore people are eligible to vote in this phase. In 2017, the BJP bagged 53 of the 58 seats, while the Samajwadi Party and the BSP had got two seats each. One seat had gone to the Rashtriya Lok Dal.
Virtual canvassing
The canvassing for the first phase remained confined to the virtual medium due to a ban on roadshows and physical rallies in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Leading the campaign for the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched for a double-engine government for fast-paced development while attacking the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) combine. While Union Home Minister Amit Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath tried to put the spotlight back on alleged "exodus" of Hindus from Kairana before 2017, SP president Akhilesh Yadav claimed that people have made up their mind to vote out the BJP from power.
The SP-RLD alliance has centered their electioneering on farmers' issues and has attacked Adityanath over poll promises. BSP chief Mayawati, who started campaigning late, reminded people of her government's track record on law and order in the past. The Congress under the leadership of its general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has generated interest as seen in door-to-door campaigns.
Poll watchers
The first round of state poll will be a decider, as it would set the momentum for the next six rounds, say poll watchers in Agra. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav with his new alliance partner Jayant Chaudhary, RLD President, have been campaigning hard in the rural segments. The BJP has all the stalwarts from Amit Shah, Hema Malini to Rajnath Singh, J P Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with the two deputy Chief Ministers -- Keshav Prasad Maurya and Dinesh Sharma -- campaigning in the area.
"Undoubtedly this has been one of the most fierce electoral battles, with no holds barred, and the outcome could be anybody's guess, given the specifics of the rapidly shifting political contours," says political commentator Paras Nath Choudhary. Most observers of the political scene in this area agree that there has been a massive caste and community polarisation which tends to push the developmental debate in the background.
"Clearly, the Muslims are united and are expected to vote together for the winning anti-BJP candidate, who will in all probability, get the support from the dominant Yadav community," according to poll watcher Rahul Raj. In Agra, until now the loyal Agarwal community stands divided with a section openly challenging the BJP candidates. The numerically strong Agarwal community had demanded a few tickets, at least two of the nine in Agra district, but the party chose to field Purushottam Khandelwal and Yogendra Yadav.
Former Uttarakhand Governor Baby Rani Maurya has been fielded from the Agra Rural Assembly constituency. For the Etmadpur Assembly constituency, the BJP placed faith in a last-minute defector Dharam Pal. Another surprise was in store when the BJP fielded local MP and a Union Minister of State, S P Singh Baghel, from Karhal in Mainpuri district, against SP's Akhilesh Yadav. Obviously, Baghel has nothing much to lose except causing anxious moments to Akhilesh, who insiders say, will find himself a bit tied down.
"We witnessed a lot of confusion and uncertainty till the last minute in the distribution of tickets by all parties. Defectors were warmly welcomed and a low level of public discourse with a markedly communal flavour has been the trend. All parties must share the blame," said social activist Sudhir Gupta.
Security bandobast
Nearly 50,000 paramilitary personnel from 412 companies of central paramilitary forces have been deployed at different locations to maintain poll-bound state's law and order as the election campaign for the first phase of assembly polls in western UP ended on Tuesday evening. The police have sealed the borders of the State and strict vigilance is underway to maintain peace in 58 assembly constituencies which will go for polling tomorrow. The polling duty staff are moving for the 3,911 booths. For the nine Assembly constituencies, there are 34.61 lakh voters and 107 candidates.
"The highest deployment will be seen in Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh and Meerut. In Mathura alone, 75 coys of paramilitary have been deployed and the total force deployed is 21,000 in this constituency," the security officials said about the deployment of troops in sensitive areas. The officials also informed that thorough vigilance is being done at the state borders of both Haryana and Rajasthan where police officials are listing the car numbers. Amidst tight security, polling officers and the teams have started assembling at Krishi Utpanna Bajar Samiti to collect all the required election materials since 7 am on Wednesday.
"There will be movement of force throughout and voting will be held amidst tight security. Duty cards were allotted. The liquor shops have been closed for 48 hours and will open only once the voting is over," the officials added. Moreover, if hoardings, banners or posters of candidates will be seen within a radius of two hundred meters of the polling booths it will be taken down immediately. At the election booths, candidates who will put more than three by four and a half feet banner will be considered as a violation of the Model code of conduct, the official said.
Earlier, the governments of all the poll-bound states have been instructed not to misuse the official machinery. Shamli, Mathura, Agra, Muzaffarnagar, Bagpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr and Aligarh will go for polling tomorrow. In Uttar Pradesh, elections will be held in 403 assembly seats in seven phases from February 10 to March 7.
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