Hyderabad: The BJP's historic victory in the Gujarat assembly elections, which saw it smash its own record, was made possible by a powerful campaign run by the saffron party's stalwarts under the command of PM Narendra Modi.
The personal appeal PM Modi made to Gujarat citizens for support was heeded, as is evident by this smashing victory. More than half of the electorate voted for Modi, based on the percentage of votes the BJP received. Now that they have nearly decimated the opposition, the BJP will be free to decide on their own in the state assembly.
Given the number of legislators the opposition would have over the next five years, there would rarely be a voice heard from the gallery sitting opposite the ruling party in the house. Nothing, not even the Dalit issue, the Bilques Bano rape case, or the anti-incumbency, could dent the BJP.
The level of insulation was such that Modi had overshadowed any element that could have possibly impacted the BJP's performance. The party's grassroots activists, pana pramuks, asked people to ignore the party if it had not done enough for them while also urging them to vote for Modi because he is the son of the soil.
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The candidates in the opposition camp -- Congress, AAP, and AIMIM -- opposing the BJP in the state have been fatal for one another as the vote percentage is not shared between them rather it is scattered among them. There were so many Muslim candidates in some constituencies that they could only serve as a source of division and would not in any way benefit any of the opposition parties, not even the AIMIM led by Assadudin Owaisi.
The BJP's overwhelming majority in the state is the consequence of a well-thought-out strategy that the party may have adopted in response to the AAP's good performance in the previous Surat municipal elections when it won 27 seats.
The BJP also paid attention to Owaisi's regular visits to Gujarat for one or the other reason. For them, the Congress posed a major threat that had previously existed, particularly in the Saurashtra region, where Prime Minister Modi himself had begun his campaign to water down the Congress influence.
When he addressed the people of the entire state, he was actually camping out in the Saurashtra region conducting a number of rallies. He threw his verbal assault against the opposition in the region that had previously been a stronghold for the Congress, where they had won the majority of seats in the previous elections.
In 2017, Congress won 28 of the 48 seats in Saurashtra, while the BJP won only 19 seats from the region. Of the 53 seats in north Gujarat, 24 were won by the Congress. Even in Vadnagar, Unjha, the hometown of Prime Minister Modi, the Congress candidate defeated the BJP candidate by about 19000 votes.
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But this time, the Hindutva ideology of the BJP has penetrated beyond its base of support and entered into society to mainstream the dogma. This idea of Hindutva has virtually made the opposition insignificant in the state.
In contrast, the pattern is not seen in Himachal Pradesh, another state where the BJP performed poorly and was unable to even secure the required number of seats to retain its power in the state. Given the percentage of Muslim votes in the state, the idea of Hindutva did not work for the BJP in the hill state.
It is the government employee that has probably played a significant role in influencing the electorate as a whole. And it is obvious that the old pension scheme has favoured the Congress the most.
The saffron takeover that was witnessed in Gujarat is entirely opposite in Himachal Pradesh. The Congress is forming the government in the hill state, while the BJP is holding onto power in Gujarat for the seventh time. The pattern of changing the government in Himachal every five years has not changed.
This time also the trend remains the same. But the trend that Gujarat has set will definitely have long-term gains for the BJP as more states are going to polls in 2023. Given the kind of acumen the party has in learning from its failures, it throws a big challenge for the opposition to remain in the competition.
