'If Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates into 'Regional Conflagration', It Would Be a Drawback for India'

New Delhi : India is currently in a delicate situation as it navigates the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite the risk of escalation and an all-out war between the two nations, India has taken a firm stance of neutrality as it values its good relations with both Iran and Israel and has significant interests in West Asia. However, this raises important questions about India's position and what is at stake for New Delhi. Will the ongoing conflict in the region impact India's economic and strategic needs?

In conversation with ETV Bharat, India's former diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar, said, “Iran and Israel are both of utmost concern for India, and New Delhi has taken a very strategic and balanced approach to the conflict. India has excellent relationships with both nations, and it has historic, cultural, and civilisational ties with Iran. Despite the temporary standstill in energy partnerships between the two nations when Trump put sanctions on the export of oil from Iran, Iran remains strategically important for India. The Chahbahar port in Iran and the International North-South Transport Corridor are essential gateways to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia, and other countries in the Caucasus region. India recognises the importance of Iran on various dimensions."

“Similarly, Israel and India share a strong relationship,” said Sajjanhar. “India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992, and since then, the two nations have expanded their relations in business, security, technology transfer, manufacturing, agriculture, and new technology. Defence is an essential element of the bilateral ties, which makes both Iran and Israel important for India. New Delhi's top priority is to prevent further decline in relations between the two nations and avoid any escalation of conflict.”

Sajjanhar also cautioned that if the war does break out, the process of evacuating Indian nationals from the conflict zone will become very problematic. India still hopes that the situation will be resolved diplomatically and that peace will prevail in the region.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, more than 18,000 Indians are working in Israel as caregivers and agricultural workers, and many have already left for Israel as a part of an agreement signed between the two countries to send workers to replace them with Palestinians there. Over 4000 Indians are residing in Iran.

Further, the Former diplomat explained that though Iran has been working against the interests of Israel through proxies like Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah, this is the first time that Iran has launched an attack on Israel from its soil, escalating the already adversarial relationship between the two countries. "The attack has also attracted the attention of several countries, including the US, UK, France, and Jordan, who have come to the defence of Israel. Saudi Arabia and UAE also shared intelligence with Israel about the impending Iranian attack. Therefore, it is very clear that none of these countries wants war that Iran has been advocating for a long time”, he added.

Due to the uncertain situation in the region, India issued an advisory urging its nationals not to travel to Iran and Israel and has instructed its citizens residing in these countries to restrict their movements and get in touch with Indian embassies. However, a day after the advisory was issued, Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles as a retaliation to an attack by Israel on an Iranian consulate. In response, India has called for immediate de-escalation of violence, exercise of restraint, and return to diplomacy. The Indian Embassies in the region are closely monitoring the evolving situation and are in touch with the Indian community to ensure their safety and security.

How the conflict in the region could affect India's economic and strategic needs? Ashok Sajjanhar said if the conflict escalates into a 'regional conflagration', it would be a major problem not only for India but for the entire world, particularly the developing nations. Around 80-90 lakh Indians work in West Asia, and a war in the region could make it challenging for India to evacuate its nationals. “India is heavily reliant on the region for its energy supply, with 83-85% of its energy needs being imported from West Asia. Additionally, trade relations with countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia could be impacted”, he added.

“India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an economic, defence, and strategic partnership with the region could also be affected if the conflict were to expand. India has been expanding its economic and strategic partnership with the region, including the India-UAE FTA and other significant initiatives like I2U2. The former diplomat pointed out that India is also set to sign an FTA with Oman”.

It is pertinent to note that West Asia is the largest source of remittances from the Indian diaspora, accounting for 40% of the total 100 billion dollars India receives each year, which is used for budget financing.

India is currently concerned about the 17 Indian crew members on board the MSC Aries, an Israeli-affiliated container ship captured by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Following talks with India's External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar, the Iranian Foreign Minister has assured that Indian diplomats will soon be allowed to meet the Indian crew members. Dr Jaishankar spoke with Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Monday and raised the matter of the 17 Indian crew members. They also discussed the current situation in the region, with Dr Jaishankar emphasizing the importance of avoiding escalation, exercising restraint, and returning to diplomacy.

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