Hyderabad: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre has announced a recently resigned Governor and its former and incumbent party chiefs as its candidates in the high-volt battle for the south in the upcoming general elections, amid intense rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will continue till day of silence.
BJP has chosen former Governor, Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, as one of the candidates, hoping that her electoral plunge after holding a constitutional post will help it add more seats from the south.
As Governor of Telangana and Puducherry, Soundararajan was making headlines in the state and as well in the Union Territory neighbouring Chennai South constituency. A doctor by profession, she has entered the poll fray along with former IPS officer and incumbent BJP state unit chief, K Annamalai, and former state unit chief and Union Minister L Murugan.
Soundararajan, who resigned days before as Governor, filed her nomination for the Chennai South constituency on Monday. She has unsuccessfully contested to the State Legislative Assembly. The latest of her electoral fights was in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. She fought against Kanimozhi Karunanidhi and lost by a margin of nearly 3.5 lakh votes.
The 128 Seats From South
Political pundits say PM Modi's frequent outings to multiple southern destinations in the past few months were aimed at winning most of the 128 seats from the southern states. Of the 128, the BJP has 30 and its rival Congress has 27 while the rest are held by the other constituents of the Opposition INDIA bloc barring a few seats.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party polled 51 per cent in Karnataka sweeping the state's 25 out of 28 seats. In Telangana, it managed to secure 19.45 per cent vote share and win four of 17 seats.
The party could not win a single seat in three other southern states -- Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh -- while polling 12.93 per cent, 3.6, and 0.9 respectively.
Heavy Weights In Fray
In 2021, the Union Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting, Murugan contested from Dharapuram seat, when he was the state unit chief and the party was in alliance with the AIADMK. He lost from the seat by a margin of 1,393 votes to the DMK candidate, Kayalvizhi.
Four of his party colleagues made it to the Assembly successfully piggybacking off the AIADMK, prompting the party high command to dish out a plum reward to Murugan who was elevated as union minister.
It eventually led to the shakeup in the party ranks with K Annamalai being parachuted into the party as state president. Annamalai who fought the elections in the AIADMK alliance from Aravakurichi seat finished behind the DMK candidate R Elango, by a margin of nearly 25,000 votes. After Annamalai took over the reins of the party, the alliance with the Dravidian party turned sour, mostly due to the motor-mouthing by the former IPS officer from Karnataka cadre. Annamalai's remark on Dravidian stalwart and late Chief Minister C N Annadurai did not augur well with neither of the Dravidian parties. He also criticised MGR and Jayalalithaa, the former chiefs of the AIADMK, and drew brickbats from the AIADMK.
Ahead of the Parliamentary election, the saffron party had finalised its alliance deal with a north Tamil Nadu party- Pattali Makkal Katchi, looking to jumpstart its poll prospects in the southern part of the country.
The Alliance
The BJP has formed a third front with an umbrella of parties including India Minor players like Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi, Puthiya Needhi Katchi and former Union Minister GK Vasan-led Tamil Manila Congress.
It has accommodated former Chief Minister and sacked AIADMK coordinator O Panneerselvam who is now locked in a legal tangle with the AIADMK led by Edappadi K Palaniswami.
The other constituents include Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam led by TTV Dhinakaran, who is also the nephew of close aide late CM J Jayalalithaa. Sasikala was convicted along with Jaya in a disproportionate assets case, in which charges against the former AIADMK supremo were abated by the Supreme Court on her passing. While the party hopes strongly to open its tally in Tamil Nadu, it remains to be seen whether it would find resonance with the voters.
Vote Share
Going it alone, the BJP garnered 2.9 per cent votes in 2016. It joined hands with AIADMK in the 2019 General Elections, earning 3.7 per cent vote share. In 2019, the PMK which was part of the AIADMK alliance polled 5.5 per cent.
The saffron party and the north Tamil Nadu party polled 3.8 and 2.6 per cent in the subsequent Assembly polls in 2021.
Dhinakaran's AMMK polled 8.4 per cent in byelections to Assembly segments and 10.4 in the LS polls in 2019, while it dwindled to 2.4 per cent in 2021 Assembly polls. Former Union Minister GK Vasan-led Tamil Manila Congress which polled nearly 0.5 per cent in 2019 general elections and unsuccessfully contested from seven seats in AIADMK's 'Two Leaves' symbol.
The Kerala Story
BJP also wants to make inroads in neighbouring Kerala. The party is focused on Palakkad, Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta and Kasargod, where it believes it is up for the tri-corner contest against the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI-led Left Democratic Front.
Going Strong In Palakkad
In Palakkad, the rightwing party has accrued to power by winning the 2020 municipal election with a clear mandate.The party’s fortunes have been improving over the course of time as it was able to improve its tally in the municipal election from 24 to 28 to secure the top post in the 52-member council. Traditionally, the party has been enjoying the local support from the migrant population, especially Tamil Brahmins and guest workers from the rest of the country.
Thrissur Saga
As for Thrissur, the party banks on actor Suresh Gopi who unsuccessfully contested from here in the 2019 polls. Gopi will take on Congress' Muraleedharan, son of late Chief Minister K Karunakaran, and brother of Padmaja Venugopal, who joined BJP earlier this month. In 2019, the mollywood star garnered 2.9 lakh votes and stood third with a vote share of 28 percent. Congress MP TN Prathapan came on top with 4.15 lakh votes, accounting for a vote share of nearly 40 percent, while his nearest rival from CPI Rajaji Mathew Thomas polled 3.2 lakh votes, amassing a vote share of nearly 31 percent. Gopi upped his vote share in the subsequent Assembly Polls from Thrissur Assembly constituency, bagging 31.5 per cent vote share, while retaining the third spot, in 2021. While CPI candidate P Balachandran finished on top, the then Congress leader Padmaja lost by under 1,000 votes.
Pathanamthitta And Lord Ayyappa
Pathanamthitta is where the famous Sabarimala temple is located. This is where Modi launched his campaign invoking Lord Ayyappa, favouring Anil Antony, the son of long-time Congress leader AK Antony, who defected to the saffron brigade last year. The party consolidated the Hindu votes, milking the sentiments against the objections to the women's entry into Sabarimala Ayyappa temple in 2019.
Tharoor Vs Rajeev In Thiruvananthapuram
The Thiruvananthapuram fight will be interesting as the union minister of state, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, has entered the poll fray. His first hurdle will be the outsider tag while the sitting MP from here is Shashi Tharoor, who has been returning to Lok Sabha since his first win in 2009 and is seeking a re-election on Congress ticket. Also, the BJP is the principal opposition in the municipal corporation. Tharoor's personal connections run deep, cutting across party lines. Rajeev’s ability to spring a surprise will be put to test here.
Kasaragod
In Kasaragod, the party candidate ML Ashwini is a block panchayat member of Manjeshwar. In the Assembly segment of Manjeshwar, the saffron party has been finishing second only after the Indian Union Muslim in the recent elections.
She is a polyglot who can speak in Malayalam, Kannada, Tulu, Konkani, English and Hindi. This skill of hers holds the key as the district remains to be a haven for linguistic minorities.
In Karnataka and Telangana, the party hopes to improve its chances by fielding heavyweights and giving opportunities to members of political dynasties. Come June 3, it will clear the air whether the strategies of the saffron party worked in the south or not.
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