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From: Rajeev Rajan
Delhi, Oct 25, 2019
Heading: National Messages of state election results in Maharashtra & Haryana
Main-story: April to June quarter saw India’s GDP growth slumping to a 7-year low of 5 %. Due to rising food prices, the retail inflation rose to a 10-month high in August. In May 2019, the rate of unemployment was at a 45-year-high of 6.1 %.
Alike other parts of India; farm-distress, rising food prices and growing joblessness remained the real issues confronting the people of Maharashtra & Haryana. Consequently, an anti-incumbency sentiment has begun creeping into a section of voters over incumbent govts’ inability to fully fulfil its Achhe Din for all promise.
To neutralize voters’ anger over such real issues, the ruling BJP heavily banked
on the defectors from the rival Cong-NCP camp in Maharshtra
and
disunity among the anti-BJP parties in Haryana.
Alongwith, BJP laid added emphasis on Article 370 nullification and NRC which aims to deport the (Muslim) infiltrators. Then, Indian Army on 20 Oct – exactly a day ahead of the voting – fiercely retaliated Pakistan’s firing along the LoC, immediately recalling the voters the national security concerns.
The strategy worked, but not fully. Though BJP+Sena won 161 seats, BJP’s own tally fell from 122 in Nov 2014 to 105 now. In Haryana, BJP - though emerged as the single largest party - has fallen short of the magic figure. Its tally fell from 47 in Nov 2014 to 40 now.
The end results are sure to prompt BJP to tread with caution in raising national security & communally polarizing issues in the upcoming state elections. Given the fact that most of the defectors fielded by it have lost, BJP will also be much more cautious in giving party-symbol to the turn-coats in the coming elections. Jharkhand goes to poll in a few weeks from now and Delhi in Feb 2020.
While BJP workers are guarded in celebrating the Maharashtra & Haryana results, the results injects enthusiasm in the Opposition ranks. In Maharashtra, the anti-BJP parties are down but not out.
This is significant. In national election 5 months before, NDA had a 51.3% vote share in Maharashtra and 58.3% in Haryana, leaving opposition parties a dispirited lot. But they recovered quite fast, offering a tough fight to BJP. Though they will not be able to form the next govt in Maharashtra or Haryana, their performance indicate they can outsmart BJP if they offer a united fight.
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Congress’ impressive show in Haryana reaffirms that the Grand Old Party retains its appeal in all sections of society. Even as BJP branded Congress’ CM face Bhupinder Singh Hooda as a leader only of Jat caste, Congress won 31 seats. Playing Jat vrs non-Jat card to the hilt, BJP could not consolidate all non-Jat castes at most of the seats. Several non-Jat castes found Congress a better option than BJP.
But more significantly, Congress’ good show in Haryana came, even as the First Family of the party largely stayed away from campaigning. Sonia Gandhi was to address a rally in Mahendragarh in Haryana. But she cancelled it at the last moment. Former party president RaGa addressed only 2 rallies in Haryana. Similarly, RaGa addressed only 5 rallies in Maharashtra. Party president Sonia Gandhi skipped Maharashtra altogether. Priyanka Gandhi - after becoming a national general secretary on 23 January - had campaigned extensively in the 2019 general elections. But she did not campaign in any of the 2 states.
Even as the state units of the party felt rudderless in absence of the Gandhis, the anti-BJP voters in both states reposed their trust in Congress and regional parties ideologically opposed to BJP. Courtesy them, Congress survived in Maharashtra and performed impressively in Haryana. This signals that the Grand Old Party can survive even without pro-active role of the First Family in campaigning.
On the flip-side, fall in BJP numbers both states underlines the need of checking the over-exposure of PM Modi and party president Amit Shah in state elections. PM Modi addressed 16 rallies (9 in Maharashtra and 7 in Haryana). BJP president & home minister Amit Shah addressed 16 rallies in Maharashtra and 12 in Haryana.
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Its below-expectation performance in both states is sure to prompt BJP to revisit its unconventional decision in selecting the CMs on the basis of counter-consolidation of the other castes against the dominant caste.
5 years back, BJP made Devendra Fadnavis, a non-Maratha, the CM of Maharashtra which has always been dominated by the 31 %-strong Marathas. Even as several Maratha leaders defected to BJP & Sena just ahead of the poll, the Maratha voters remained loyal to their traditional favorite NCP & Cong.
Similarly, in a state dominated by Jats, BJP made Manohar Lal Khattar - a Punjabi - the CM in Nov 2014. 30%-strong Jats vented their ire against BJP. They ensured victory of the non-Jat candidates fielded by Congress and JJP; and defeat of Jat candidates fielded by BJP. State’s finance minister Captain Abhimanyu & agriculture minister OP Dhankad are among the BJP’s Jat candidates who lost due to counter-sentiments of Jats against BJP.
Clearly, BJP strategy to consolidate the non-dominating castes against the ‘one-upmanship’ of a single caste has not yielded the desired result. Hence, it is set to be cautious particularly in Jharkhand where girijans comprise 26 % population. Playing the tribal vrs non-tribal card in 2014 election, BJP had made Raghubar Das (an OBC) the first no-tribal CM of the state.
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Besides, the outcome of the assembly polls will enable Shiv Sena & NCP to retain their existing roles in the national politics. While Sena has already started insisting for equitable distribution of power in the state, it will continue to be critical of BJP in the national politics. The differences between BJP and Sena is set to become wider in the coming days, even as they form another coalition govt in Maharashtra.
At another level, central agencies – which raised serious corruption and anti-national accusations against NCP leaders just ahead of the polling – will revisit their stand on corruption cases involving NCP leaders. With NCP raising its tally, morale of NCP chief Sharad Pawar is high. Pawar’s stature in national politics naturally gets enhanced.
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The mandate of these states will also influence BJP floor leaders in the Parliament when the winter session starts on 18 November. The saffron strategists would be more conciliatory in approaching the non-NDA parties for support on key bills.
Box-item: BJP’s below-expectation performance in both states indicates that the narrative has NOT fully shifted from cobbling together the winning number through social engineering to communal polarization & nationalist rhetoric.
BJP is sure to realize the limited receptiveness of nationalist rhetoric & communal polarization; and pay adequate attention on real issues like farm-distress, rising food prices and unemployment.
Clearly, BJP brand of muscular nationalism - which targets Pakistan & minorities within India – has NOT become the new national identity. So, if the anti BJP parties engage in the new national identity - which is plural as opposed to singular Hindu nationalism of BJP, they surely stand the chance to defeat BJP.
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Side-story-1: Old Guards prove their mettle, once again !
Even if their parties are short of the numbers required to form the govt, NCP chief Sharad Pawar (78) and Congress’ old warhorse Bhupinder Singh Hooda (72) are the man of the moment in their respective state.
Devastating BJP plan of ushering in post-Pawar era in Maharashtra after this election, NCP has won 56 seats, raising its tally by 15 seats. Soon after his party’s impressive show, Pawar said: “People dislike the arrogance of power”; alluding to BJP president Amit Shah pre-poll statement wherein he had said: “If we open our door, all NCP leaders except Pawar would join BJP.”
Taking a dig at NCP leader who switched to BJP-Sena just ahead of the poll, Pawar said: “People also dislike the turncoats.” Mentionably, many such defectors lost to the NCP’s candidates in NCP strongholds in western Maharashtra and Marathwada.”
Mentionably, Pawar single-handedly led the Opposition campaign in Maharashtra, as Congress remained consumed by infighting and the lack of a strong state leadership.
The former CM did not stop his speech in Satara even as it rained heavy, his white shirt soaked in rain-water. The video went viral on social-media and main-stream media; becoming one of the defining images of the entire election campaign. Overlooking his advancing age and swelling number of defection from the party ranks, Pawar muddled through, addressing multiple rallies. Consequently, he became the sole target of the ruling BJP.
The seasoned politician upturned the personal attacks against him to his own advantage, saying: “Maharashtra is the land of Shiva Ji Maharaj. It will never bow before Delhi.” Knowing that people disapprove attacks below the belt, Pawar left it to the people of the state to respond when the incumbent CM Devendra Fadnavis mocked him over its septuagenarian campaigner.
Pawar also took full advantage of BJP’s attempts to garner votes in state election over national security and communally polarizing issue of scrapping of Article 370. “These issues have little relevance in a state election where people are more concerned about real issues like joblessness and agri-crisis.”
His efforts were not in vain. His NCP emerged as the senior alliance partner in the state for the first time, reducing the Congress to number 4 position in Maharashtra.
Unsurprisingly then, Pawar – after his party’s impressive show - thanked PM Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and CM Devendra Fadnavis for saying all what they have said against him in the campaigning.
Pawar also hit back at defectors like his former party MP from Satara, Udayanraje Bhosale (a direct descendent of Shivaji Maharaj) who lost to NCP candidate in the parliamentary by-polls.
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In Haryana, Congress Old warhorse and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is the obvious man of the moment. Nurturing serious differences with RaGa, Hooda was sulking till Sonia Gandhi became party’s president once again. Hooda began another innings in the party when Sonia Gandhi made him the leader of Congress legislative party and chief of the election management committee.
This was half the battle won, as Hooda had got his way by getting RaGa appointee Ashok Tanwar removed as state Congress president. Setting aside his earlier differences with newly appointed state Congress President Kumari Selja, Hooda banked on his old relations in the state.
An evergreen friend, Hooda has always kept in touch with long-time cohorts, no matter where they are. In private conversations, Hooda always maintains: “One never knows when one may come in handy”, a belief which he would be banking on now, as Congress is frantically trying to win over the support of JJP which has won 10 seats. In Hooda’s resurrection, Congress in Haryana gets a new lease of life as well.
But this augurs ill for the favorites of RaGa in other states. Buoyed by Hooda’s spearheading a tough fight against BJP, Old Guards in other states – including Kamalnath in MP and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan – will surely be emboldened in undermining RaGa’s favorites Jytoraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot.
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Side-story-2: Warning sign for AAP in Delhi
· The revival of Congress in adjoining Haryana is set to enthuse party workers in Delhi, much to the dismay of the ruling AAP
· AAP has always gained in Delhi at the cost of Congress
Main-story: Failing to open its account in Delhi in 2019 general election, AAP in Delhi has been treading extremely cautiously. Since then, Delhi CM & AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has been on a course correction drive. Since then, Kejriwal has not once attacked PM Modi; taking cognizance of the strange sentiments among several Delhiites: ‘Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM”.
Since then, the graph of AAP has been steadily on the rise in Delhi. Several pro-people steps by AAP govt like no charge for electricity for meter reading upto 200 units, reducing the water bills, muhalla clinics et al have been playing roles in raising the AAP graph.
However, the fact remains that AAP has always gained in Delhi mainly at the cost of Congress, as BJP continues to retain its traditional support base. After the recent death of Sheila Dixit, the Delhi unit of Congress has been rudderless. The Grand Old Party also lost the faith of the 20 %-strong Purvanchali poor (who have set up shops and homes on govt lands) and 14%-strong minorities, the 2 social sections which had voted for Congress in the 2019 general election.
After Sheila’s death and RaGa’s resignation as party president, the 2 social sections turned sceptical of Congress and began gravitating towards AAP.
However, Congress impressive show in adjoining Haryana has sent a positive vibe to these 2 social sections. As a matter of fact, these 2 sections keep shuttling between Cong & AAP, as they are willing to choose either in order to keep BJP out of power. Deeply suspicious of BJP’s Smart City project, the poor Purvanchali fears that a BJP govt in Delhi would send them back to their native places in UP-Bihar. The minorities dislike BJP for its Hindutva plank.
Thus, Congress’ revival in Haryana - apart from enthusing Congress workers in Delhi – enables the party to lure the poor and the minorities away from AAP.
(Ends) Regards,
Rajeev Rajan Special Correspondent, Eenadu Cell No: 9121167518
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