New Delhi: The Ukraine conflict has been a watershed development in enhancing India’s prominence in the global comity of nations like never before. And now, the victory of the Anthony Albanese-led Labor Party in Australia’s federal elections on Saturday is set to underline it further. Incumbent PM Scott Morrison conceded defeat on Saturday before the official declaration of the results and even before the counting of the 2.7 million postal votes. The total electorate comprises about 17 million Australians. Anyone who is 18 plus has to vote in Australia, failing which one has to pay a A$20 (US$15) penalty. Morrison said he did so because an Australian leader needed to attend the Quad meeting in Tokyo, which is slated for May 24.
On his part, expressing keenness to be in Tokyo, the PM-elect Albanese said, “The Quad leaders’ meeting is an absolute priority for Australia and it enables us to send a message to the world that there is a change of government.” On his day of arrival in Tokyo on Monday, PM Modi is to have one-to-one meetings with 35 business leaders. The next day, he will have one-to-one meetings with President Joe Biden, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida and Albanese besides the Quad Summit where the world leaders will engage together.
China Stand
But, what remains a question is whether Albanese will take positions against China with the same zeal and enthusiasm as that of his hardline predecessor, who acted as a force-multiplier for the US-led ‘Quad’ or even the newly-formed AUKUS, both understood to be platforms to counter the growing power and assertiveness of the Chinese. ‘Quad’ or the ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ comprises India, the US, Australia and Japan while AUKUS comprises the US, Australia and the UK. While the ‘Quad’ was first ideated in 2007 and picked up steam in 2010, the formation of AUKUS was announced on September 15, 2021.
If Albanese does not back the ‘Quad’ or the AUKUS with the same intensity as his predecessor Morrison, there would be definite erosion in the importance and significance of the two groupings. Such a development will further leverage India’s position and further establish India’s centrality in the US’ Indo-Pacific policy. Already, the Ukraine conflict has underlined India’s ‘swing quotient’ as it has become embroiled in a tug-of-war between the US-led block of NATO countries and others and the emerging Russia-China axis, with both sides keen to enlist India’s support.
The second-most populated country in the world with a huge market, the IMF has projected that India may become the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2022 with a growth rate of higher than eight per cent. With the Ukraine conflict likely to lead to a reshaping of the old world order, India, thus far, pursuing a policy of strategic autonomy, which prioritises peace between the warring sides, has refrained from taking sides.
Australia’s position on China will be more important also because China has concluded a deal with the strategically located Solomon Islands in the Pacific in April that would allow Chinese Navy ships and vessels to use the facilities thereby extending China’s reach in the South Pacific and proximity to the Australian and New Zealand coastlines.
Reports are indicative of the Chinese pursuing similar deals with other island nations in the region like Kiribati, which would undoubtedly strengthen China’s foothold in the region. Meanwhile, Albanese had indicated in the recent past that China would be viewed differently if his Labor party is voted to power--"in a mature way”--not by being provocative for the sake of it to make a domestic political point.”
Similarly, the Labor Party’s shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus had said at an election panel debate that finding common ground with China on shared interests such as climate change was key to striking a reset without compromising Australia’s values and security. So, while a Labor Party government in Canberra may be reluctant to change the general position on China, it is expected to be a lot less provocative to rattle Beijing. Other things remain constant, which is good news for India.
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