New Delhi: Amid violence escalating in Afghanistan (अफ़ग़ानिस्तान) perpetrated by the Taliban (तालिबान), a three-day conference-'extended Troika' is underway in Doha, Qatar convened by Russia to discuss the peace process in the war-torn country, with attendance from the Taliban, the United States, China, Pakistan (पाकिस्तान) and host of other countries. An analyst believes that Intra-Afghan peace negotiations won’t likely bear any fruit because the Taliban at the moment feel that they have their momentum on their side and they don’t see any major opposition to break it.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Professor Harsh V. Pant, Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation, said, "Unless America starts to militarily reinforce certain redlines, there is hardly any incentive for Taliban to negotiate in good faith. By and large, the Intra-Afghan process has broken down and I do not see any prospect of China, Pakistan or the US and Russia trying to put the Humpty Dumpty back together".
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"The political reconciliation process at the moment is in tatters and the challenge for Afghanistan certainly in coming years will be how the anti-Taliban forces can present a front that is significant and powerful enough to make Taliban reconsider its military moves. At the moment Taliban feels that it can gain power through the use of force and that leaves them with no real incentive to negotiate. Therefore, the larger framework for the so-called peace process is not materializing and the challenges will continue. The movement towards military conflict towards civil war continues in Afghanistan and ordinary Afghans are the worst sufferers,” Pant said.
The Taliban has made rapid gains across Afghanistan in recent weeks which clearly indicate that the insurgent group isn’t prioritizing a negotiated peace in Afghanistan. The extended Troika meeting saw the participation of top Afghan peace negotiator Abdullah Abdullah and US special representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, along with the representatives from the UN, Qatar, US, UK, EU, China and Pakistan. India has again been kept out of the meeting.
Commenting on India’s exclusion from the extended Troika, Pant underlined that it is not surprising that India has been left out because Pakistan and China never really wanted India to be a part.
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"Russia is an important partner of India but it is increasingly also under the spell of China. Even if Russia had tried, it is very difficult to see how it could have convinced China and Pakistan to bring India to the table. They see India as a major problem because of its stand on Afghanistan, which has been made repeatedly clear in recent weeks. Whether the extended Troika meeting can achieve its result without any country representing the cause of the Afghan government or anti-Taliban forces in the Taliban remains to be seen, because, at this point, China, Russia and Pakistan all seem to be toeing the Taliban line. So clearly, if that is the situation, I don’t think the non-Taliban factions would have enough confidence in the ability of such a Troika to achieve results in their favour," he explained.
The extended Troika meeting was called by Russia to push intra-Afghan talks to find a political settlement in Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban have launched a massive offensive by capturing almost nine provincial capitals. Further, when asked whether peace would return to the war-ravaged country, Pant said that unless there is a political reconciliation between Taliban and non-Taliban political stakeholders, it is very unlikely that peace would return to the war-ravaged nation.
Read: Afghan officials: 3 more provincial capitals fall to Taliban
"India has been saying for a long time that even if Taliban capture 90% of their territory, they will keep on facing opposition from the 10% so long as a credible political structure is not in a place that takes into account the aspirations of all stakeholders. I think peace is very unlikely to come shortly unless there is pressure from all sides, including China, the United States, Russia and other major countries," he pointed out.
Notably, India will on Thursday participate in a meeting of key countries being hosted by Qatar to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. The meeting will also be joined by Turkey and Indonesia among others. While India has been backing the Afghan government and is in talks with other stakeholders in the war-torn country, it has repeatedly opposed the imposition of any regime by force.
India has maintained that the peace process must be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled and has to respect the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan (अफ़ग़ानिस्तान). Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating as the Taliban has intensified its offensive with the complete drawdown of the US troops. On the other hand, New Delhi (नई दिल्ली) had on Tuesday advised the Indian nationals in Afghanistan to make arrangements to return home immediately. On Wednesday, 50 staff and diplomats were evacuated from the consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif.
Read: As extended troika on Afghanistan meets, India not in picture
