Hyderabad: Post IMD and Skymet forecast of above-normal rainfall this year, rating agency CRISIL said on Tuesday that regional distribution of rains will be a key monitorable this year given the uneven spread last year. In 2023 as well, the east and northeast received below average rainfall, at 82 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
If this year's predictions were to manifest, states in this region key producers of rice, sugarcane and maize could face yet another year of rainfall distress, CRISIL said in its first cut macroeconomic report. Reacting to the Crisil report, Suraj Agarwal, Managing Director & CEO of RiceVilla, a rice marketing and exporting company, said, “The monsoon deficit is unlikely this year. What may happen is that there may be a deficit in one state and an abundance of monsoons in other states. This is becoming the weather pattern in the country now.”
Agarwal added that global demand for paddy and wheat remains high and many farmers are shifting from cotton to these two crops as they are getting good prices for their produce. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), rain in the country’s southwest is expected to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with a 5% margin of error. IMD defines normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the season.
Amit Saraogi, founder and owner of Anmol Feeds, said, “What is most important is the time of arrival of the monsoon. It may rain above normal, but if the monsoon is delayed then the entire ecosystem of production of the crop gets delayed. Suppose, rain is required in July for a certain crop. But, it doesn’t rain in July and it rains heavily in August and September. This will destroy the crop. We have to see how the monsoon behaves.” Anmol Feeds produces animal feed for which it requires maize and soy meal.
While El Niño conditions are moderate, they are expected to ease to neutral in the coming months; La Nina conditions are expected to develop during the second half of the monsoon season. La Nina following in El Niño’s footsteps generally favours the Indian monsoon, as per the past 72 years’ data studied by the IMD.
Of the nine times this phenomenon occurred during these years, rains were normal in two, above normal in two and excess in five years. The Indian Ocean Dipole (sometimes referred to as the Indian El Niño) is currently neutral; it is likely to turn positive in the second half of the monsoon season. This is another factor that is likely to benefit the Indian monsoon.
Regional and temporal distribution: For now, in its first long-range forecast (LRF), the IMD has predicted a high likelihood of below-average rainfall in some areas of east and northeast India. More rigorous information on the date of monsoon onset and its special and temporal distribution will be available in forecasts released in May.
Rainfall distribution will be watched closely this year. Uneven distribution over regions and time in the past fiscal, with other weather disturbances, had hurt agriculture output and incomes while keeping food inflation persistently high. Food inflation climbed to 7.5% on-year in fiscal 2024 from an already high 6.6%; agricultural gross value added (GVA) dropped to 0.7% from 4.7%. Areas and/or crops that face a monsoon shock (if at all) for the second straight year could suffer more than others.
Crisil has said that the temporal distribution of rains will be the other key monitorable. This is because sowing decisions are based on rainfall arrival and its quantum. With 43% of India’s total cropped area rain-dependent, adequate rainfall is required in July and August, the critical months for the kharif crop. In 2023, the temporal distribution was highly uneven, with rainfall oscillating between deficit and above normal.
Read more: India Likely To See Above-Normal Monsoon With 106 Per Cent Cumulative Rainfall: IMD
