Despite Palestine President losing popularity, India needn’t worry, poll indicates

Following the war in Gaza, while the popularity of Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas has fallen in the Palestinian territory of West Bank, that of the militant outfit Hamas has more than tripled. What are the implications for India? ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan writes.

New Delhi: Even as reports suggest that Israeli President Benjamin is losing in popularity among people in his own country because of the war against Hamas in Gaza, a new poll shows that Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas too is falling in terms of popularity among Palestinians living in the West Bank. At the same time, the popularity of Hamas has more than tripled in the West Bank ever since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7.

According to the poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in both the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank the results of which were released this week, the majority of those polled majority believe that Israel will not succeed in eradicating Hamas, or in causing a second Palestinian Nakba or expulsion of the residents of the Gaza Strip.

“Indeed, a large majority believes that Hamas will emerge victorious from this war,” the PCPSR said in a statement. “A majority also says Hamas will resume control over the Gaza Strip after the war.” According to the poll, support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip has increased but not significantly.

“It is worth noting that support for Hamas usually rises temporarily during or immediately after a war and then returns to the previous level several months after the end of the war,” the PCPSR stated. At the same time, the poll found that support for President Abbas and his Fateh party has dropped significantly.

“The same is true for the trust in the PA (the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority that is in power in the West Bank) as a whole, as demand for its dissolution rises to nearly 60 percent, the highest percentage ever recorded in PSR polls,” the PCPSR stated. “Demand for Abbas’s resignation is rising to around 90 percent and even higher in the West Bank.”

Abbas, 87, who succeeded Yasser Arafat as the Palestinian President, has insisted on the single method of political negotiations, emphasising popular nonviolent protests as a means of showing that Palestinians reject the status quo in the Israel-Palestine issue. According to a report in the Al Monitor news website, the aging Abbas, who never had the charisma of his predecessor Arafat, further lost popularity after he abruptly postponed Palestinian general elections in 2021 and continued to maintain security coordination with the Israelis. The principled political position of Abbas - depending solely on the UN and international diplomacy - has failed him.

Hamas has also got appeal among Palestinians in the West Bank because of Fatah’s failure to deliver on issues like the Oslo Accords, a pair of agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation, the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and Jewish settlers. But, interestingly, according to the PCPSR poll, despite the decline in support for Fatah and Abbas, the most popular Palestinian figure remains Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader. Barghouti will still be able to beat Hamas’s candidate Ismail Haniyeh or any other if polls are held now.

So, what are the implications for India given Hamas’s rising popularity in the West Bank?

Going by the poll, New Delhi will not have much to be worried about. Even if Abbas loses, Fatah is not likely to lose power because of Barghouti. As mentioned above, though Hamas is gaining in popularity, its leader Haniyeh stands to lose if he contests for the post of President against Barghouti. As things stand now, India will not have to face the proposition of dealing with a Palestine Authority that is controlled by Hamas. But it is worth noting that India neither recognises Hamas nor describes it as a terrorist group.

According to the poll, if the presidential election between Fatah’s Abbas and Hamas’s Haniyeh is held today, there will be only 53 percent voter turnout. Abbas will get 16 percent of the vote and Haniyeh 78 percent. However, if the contest is between Barghouti, Abbas, and Haniyeh, voter participation would rise to 71 percent. Barghouti will get 47 percent of the vote, Haniyeh 43 percent, and Abbas 7 percent. If the contest is only between Barghouti and Haniyeh, voter participation would rise to 69 percent. Barghouti will get 51 percent of the vote and Haniyeh 45 percent.

So, who is Marwan Barghouti?

Barghouti, a Palestinian political figure, was convicted of murder by an Israeli court and is recognised as a key figure in both the First and Second Intifadas. Initially supporting the peace process, he later grew disillusioned and emerged as a leader of the Second Intifada in the West Bank after 2000. Barghouti led Tanzim, a paramilitary branch of Fatah, and has been labeled a terrorist by Israeli authorities who accuse him of orchestrating various attacks, including suicide bombings, against civilian and military targets.

Arrested in 2002 in Ramallah by the Israel Defence Forces, Barghouti was tried, convicted, and sentenced to five life terms. Despite refusing to mount a defence, asserting the trial’s illegality, he continues to wield significant influence within Fatah from behind bars.

In August 2023, Fadwa, the wife of Barghouti, engaged in diplomatic discussions with high-ranking officials globally, including Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. Her objective was to champion her husband's release and promote him as a potential successor to Abbas.