New Delhi: Two recent seemingly unconnected events—not much separated in time as much as in space—are indeed striking in the backdrop of the power play and strategic moves by the US on one side and the Russia-China axis on the other.
On Sunday morning (July 31, 2022), most wanted Al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was taken down by the CIA in Kabul with a precision ‘ninja bomb’ R9X ‘Hellfire’ missile fired by a loitering drone from somewhere in Pakistan. The Egyptian eye surgeon was the next in the Al-Qaida wanted list after the group’s founder Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011.
After just a day in between, on Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, braved a furious China to land in Taiwan escorted by US air force fighters from Singapore.
Pelosi’s short trip marked weeks of ‘dare if you do’ postures by China even as PLA’s fighter aircraft including stealth J-20s made repeated forays inside Taiwan’s airspace during Pelosi’s stay in the island nation even as China declared a series of extensive live fire military war games in sea swaths that encircled Taiwan.
It is plausible that the US planned the timing of the two events as Zawahiri was under top secret surveillance for the past few months and could have been taken out any time the US wanted. The reason could be an attempt to regain and underline US power and credibility after a chaotic and humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 after two decades of occupation and counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan.
The US withdrawal was looked upon by many—including US allies—as letting its Afghan allies down in their time of acute need as the Taliban advanced into Kabul. The Pelosi visit would be a commitment to reassure Taiwan of US support. With public opinion in China vociferous in its criticism of the US after the Pelosi visit, there has been a considerable loss of face for President Xi Jinping as one of his cornerstone policies was China’s claim over Taiwan and its non-compromise.
Therefore, on the question of a Chinese reaction to the Pelosi visit, it is not a question of ‘if’ but of ‘when’. And in this, an upcoming military exercise in Latin America will be a suitable opportunity. In a week from now, Russia, China, Iran and militaries of about ten other nations will hold military war games titled ‘Frontier Sniper’ in Venezuela as part of the Russia-hosted ‘International Army Games’.
It will be for the first time that combined Russian and Chinese military games will take place in the western hemisphere. This move, besides firming up another platform block to challenge US’ primacy in a unilateral world, might have also been prompted by the commonly-held belief that the US is not comfortable with conflicts waged near its shores while being perfectly okay as long as conflicts take place in far-off locations.
Already, China has made several forays in the Caribbean including the inauguration of the China-Caribbean Development Center on July 6, 2022. In Latin America, there is a move to consolidate anti-US forces with Venezuela and Nicaragua leading the way. Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega has reportedly sought stationing of the Russian military in Nicaragua to guard its borders and to conduct joint exercises.
On the other hand, China has also forayed into Latin America with economic pacts with Uruguay, Nicaragua, and Ecuador even as its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is snaking its way well up to Argentina.
