16 years after, Indo-Sino dialogue reach nowhere

Hyderabad: The high level of dialogue that has been going on between India and China over the last 16 years has not yielded any tangible results, but both sides have not given up hope of reaching any positive result.

The 22nd meeting between the special representatives appointed for the border dispute talks is going to be held in the Taj city of Agra. It would not be wrong to expect that the talks scheduled on December 21 between the two special representatives India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China's foreign minister and state councilor Wang Yi will succeed in taking steps to resolve the border dispute based on ground reality.

From the discussions in the last 21 meetings between the Special Representatives of India and China, it is clear that resolving the border dispute is a very difficult process. In the summit held between Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Hu Jintao in 2003, it was decided that talks will be held at the level of special representatives to resolve the border dispute. It was only in the same round of talks that it was decided under which framework an attempt would be made to resolve the dispute.

In 2005, the summit meeting between Dr. Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao had set political parameters and guiding principles under which it was accepted that major geographical features and population settlements would be taken into account to resolve the border dispute.

There was also an informal agreement between the two countries that the actual control line would be determined by mutual agreement, but soon China backed out of this agreement. Due to the non-determination of the Line of Actual Control, many situations of confrontation have been witnessed between the armies of the two countries.

In the 1962 war, China forcibly occupied 34 thousand square kilometers of Aksai China, which is claimed by India. In the eastern region, China claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as Lower Tibet. China does not accept the treaties that were agreed upon with the local rulers of these areas during the British rule.

China shares borders with 14 countries and it has had border disputes with most of them. China has also fought wars with the erstwhile Communist Soviet Union and Vietnam in the past. By the virtue of its economic and military strength, China has settled its border disputes with almost all the countries except India and Bhutan. All these border agreements have been done on the terms to benefit the interest of China.

Pakistan has conceded a large area of Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir to China. Despite the size of China's economy being five times larger than that of India, India has not compromised its border interests. When India made a military intervention in favour of Bhutan in the Doklam area, China threatened India with war. China has now realized that it is not possible to cow down India on the question of the border by merely demonstrating military might and economic strength.

Despite the issue of international border and Line of control that has been settled between India and Pakistan, there are incidents of cross border firing every day, on the other hand, despite the Line of Actual Control has not been determined with China, there has not been a single shot fired at the border during the last 57 years. This evidence is enough to suggest that both these countries want to settle their disputes through peaceful negotiations.

The border dispute has had no adverse effect on trade and other relations between them. Mutual trade has now exceeded 80 billion dollars. The process of negotiations to settle the disputes has been going on for long and they continue. How China has favoured Pakistan on the question of Jammu and Kashmir, it is clear that it is following a strategy to continue to harness more pressure on India. India has also ventured to thwart China's strategy by strengthening its military ties with other mighty countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia at the diplomatic level.

In the current situation, it is not reasonable to expect that the border dispute between India and China will be resolved soon. Any agreement between the two countries will be based on the transaction. Such a consensus has to be created within the two countries that the agreement becomes readily acceptable at the public level.

India wants China to accept the Line of Actual Control with immediate effect so that confrontations between the armies of the two countries can be prevented. Incidents like Doklam have escalated tensions between the people of both the countries which also harm the negotiation process.

It is not right to expect any concrete result from the talks between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi scheduled in Agra this week. For the past few months, due to the tension created on the question of Jammu and Kashmir, the dialogue process between the two nations was stalled. Both countries realize that only if the boundary dispute is resolved, then the relationship between them can reach a new height.

China's economic growth rate has declined due to the ongoing trade war with the US for the past several months. Many American companies have wound up their work or reduced their business in China. Chinese companies eye India as a big opportunity in terms of trade and investment. China has decided to take concrete steps to address the ongoing trade imbalance against India.

The strengthening of economic relations between India and China will also have a positive impact on the border dispute talks. India's formula in the context of China should not allow price differences to be converted into controversy. Until the Line of Actual Control is determined, a situation of the clash will arise on many occasions.

To prevent these conflicts, both countries have developed a system that has been successful so far. The solution to problems is possible only by enhancing cooperation between the two countries. Both countries have to show immense patience in terms of resolving the border dispute.