Chennai: There is an increasing tribe of followers for popular bloggers who make weather updates on a real-time basis. ETV Bharat caught up with one such blogger and a budding weather expert.
Meet K. Srikanth, owner of blog titled 'Chennaiyil Oru Mazhaikkalam', who claims to be more accurate in weather predictions, particularly, North-East Monsoon. According to him, private weatherman can judge events better and make better.
Here is an excerpt from the interview with Chennai-based blogger K. Srikanth
Q. How do you differentiate 2015 North East Monsoon (NEM) and this year's NEM?
Answer: I do not think we should compare these two years' NEMs. There was a La Nina impact in 2021 that led to widespread rainfall till November, while 2015 experienced La Nino impact. Similarly, the Pacific Ocean witnessed high temperatures during 2015 NEM, and the temperature this year was less than normal leading to incessant rainfall.
Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole was positive in 2015 whereas it became moderately negative this year. So, we cannot compare these two NEMs. We can compare this year's NEM with 2005 because NEM's rainfall in 2005 was as same as 2021 NEM rain. In these two years (2005 and 2021) NEMs, rains started from October itself, whereas in 2015 NEM experienced rainfall only from November 7 to December 2.
How many cyclonic formations were there in 2015 and 2021?
There was no cyclonic formation in 2015. Even this year, the same thing has happened. Only convections, troughs of low pressure, led to rainfall. However, every week in this year's NEM, there had been convections and troughs of low events so that TN received daily rainfall.
Unlike previous years' NEMs, this year's NEM seemed to be different. Because all the districts in the state had received widespread rainfall and about seven districts, including Chennai, received over 1000 mm of rain. What is the reason?
The main important factor for such rainfall was disturbances formed in the South Bay of Bengal. For instance, two weeks ago, a low pressure formed in the South Bay of Bengal made landfall over northern parts of Tamil Nadu after coming off the East Coast of Sri Lanka, which is adjoining areas of Delta districts. Subsequent low pressure made landfall Off the South of Chennai.
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Since all these disturbances were nearing coastal areas in the state, coastal districts experienced widespread rain. During NEM, interior districts would usually not witness rain. But this time, things were different. Almost all the disturbances, formed in the South Bay of Bengal, had travelled across Peninsular India and reached the Arabian sea, because of which interior districts received heavy to very heavy rainfall.
The IMD has stated that the intensity of rainfall will gradually reduce in the coming days. How do you see?
I am in complete agreement with IMD's prediction. IMD also predicted that there is a new system that has formed over Andaman. However, this would not give much rain in Tamil Nadu. After that, there will be a dry spell for 10 days.
Since you have been a private weatherman for long years, your tracking of weather system is as same as IMD tracking?
Private weathermen do not study meteorology. IMD has various branches and officials at the Regional Meteorological Centres have to follow Standard Operating Procedure. However, private weathermen consider and compare the previous years' rainfall because of which sometimes they can judge events better.
