New Delhi: The total number of COVID-19 infected cases in India crossed the 200 mark late on Friday (258 at the time of filing) and the death toll has gone up to four. The global death toll has surged past 10,000 and the total number of infected has crossed 250,000 and this grim picture is VERY dynamic with the numbers being revised upwards every hour.
However, the relatively low figures for India should not lead to any kind of misplaced satisfaction or complacency. India may be jolted by a public-health tsunami if the community transmission rate shoots up and those who have corona symptoms have chosen to evade self-quarantining.
Thus it was very appropriate and timely that Prime Minister Modi in his address to the nation on Thursday (March 19) has called for 'self-discipline' and a demonstration of resolve and restraint.
Concurrently more quarantine centres are being set up and here the Indian armed forces are playing a quiet but commendable role. The most recent Covid quarantine facility enabled by the 'fauj' is the one set up in Visakhapatnam under the aegis of the Eastern Naval Command and this will augment the overall national effort.
Read: Global COVID-19 tracker
Earlier, there were four centres that were already functional – being Jaisalmer and Manesar (Haryana) managed by the Army; Mumbai (Navy) and Hindon (Air Force).
The Ministry of Defence has since announced that more quarantine facilities are being readied and may be made operational within 48 to 72 hours. These will include Jodhpur, Kolkata, Chennai (Army); Dundigal, Bengaluru, Kanpur, Jorhat, Gorakhpur (Air Force); and Kochi (Navy).
It is to be noted that the military quarantine facilities are being created in cities/nodes where there is a major armed forces (AF) facility and adequate space is available for ensuring the mandatory quarantine protocols as prescribed by the WHO and related guidelines. In addition, the core medical personnel of the army/navy/air force have the necessary training and skill-set to deal with a complex challenge.
The challenge is complex, for India has not faced such an exigency in the past where relatively large numbers of civilians have had to be kept in quarantine – or under observation – by military personnel. In a small but disturbing set of reports, some citizens who may have been infected chose to evade such protocols; and in a few cases, some persons protested at their being quarantined and the local police had to intervene.
Read: Minute precautions can save lives: PM Modi tweets video on COVID-19
These are early days and in the event that India has to deal with a more alarming third phase (like Italy, Spain and Iran) the sheer scale of India's vast demography will overwhelm existing prevention and testing facilities – both civilian and the small but critical sector being provided by the military.
Thus in keeping with the PM's exhortation, a contingency plan will have to be envisioned by every socio-political level – meaning state governments; district; taluk ; panchayat; village; mohalla; RWA, corporate houses, universities, colleges, schools and such like. The possibility that many quarantine facilities will be required at short notice will call for identifying appropriate venues (be the existing hotels, hostels, schools et al) for conversion to holding facilities for numbers that may run into hundreds – if not thousands – in a worst case scenario.
This is where the existing military quarantine facilities (MQF) can serve as a template for evolving and sharing SOPs – standard operating procedures that will begin with receiving citizens who need to be quarantined; keeping them monitored/healthy/fed/bathed/clothed and constructively occupied for 14 days (which is a major task given that MOST of them will want access to free wifi!) and finally releasing those who test negative. Those who are confirmed as infected by COVID-19 will need to be sent to other medical establishments where such cases would be treated.
Read: Health ministry issues advisory for hospitals, medical institutions in view of COVID-19
A sudden demand for resources, both HR and material will soon arise across India and this is where apart from trained medical staff – who are already under stress – dedicated volunteers will be required. These volunteers who at this stage may be designated 'quarantine sherpas' will have to be identified in small numbers and trained in the basic SOPs earlier outlined at the closet MQF. Team leaders would have to be identified and dummy drills carried out – to create appropriate comfort levels. If there is a surge in the numbers to be quarantined, more MQF kind of facilities will have to be created within hours. The Chinese model is relevant.
State governments and district officials in India would be well advised to identify retired personnel – both civilian and military – who have the necessary competence and stamina to create a volunteer gene-pool that will be available at short notice.
Social media can also be utilised in a force-multiplier mode both to create awareness and encourage donations for acquiring basic equipment and work spaces – that will include beds/towels/hospital clothing et al – and above all the safe disposal of used garments and disposables including gloves and masks.
With schools and colleges being shut for the next few weeks, it may be useful to bring teachers-students into the loop and train them to become the kind of empathetic sherpas India may soon need. Mass-media including celebrity anchors and social media influence leaders, as also educators could be urged to contribute in their own way – and shape the earnest Modi template into tangible action points.
India is at war. The coronavirus can be contained by the citizen-soldier turned quarantine-sherpa.
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