India Must Build Its Own AI Path, Not Copy The US Or China: Incedo CEO Nitin Seth
Seth says that India must pursue affordable, trusted AI through frugal innovation, shifting from services to products, while preparing for major job disruptions.
Published : February 18, 2026 at 2:21 PM IST
By Saurabh Shukla
New Delhi: As the world pours billions into the race for Artificial Intelligence, Nitin Seth, CEO of Incedo, believes India does not need to win by spending more; it needs to win by thinking smarter. In a conversation with ETV Bharat, on the sidelines of the India AI Impact Summit 2026, where he was in India participating in key discussions, Seth said India’s strength lies in building AI that is affordable, trustworthy, and grounded in its tradition of frugal innovation. Rather than chasing the models of the United States or China, he argued, India must chart its own path.
For India’s technology sector, he described this as a defining moment. For decades, Indian IT firms have powered global enterprises but captured only a small fraction of the value they help create. AI, Seth noted, offers a rare opportunity to change that—to move beyond back-end services and start building products and intellectual property at scale. The shift, however, will not be easy. He pointed out that between 35 and 50 per cent of current roles, particularly in white-collar segments, could be reshaped over the next 15 years. The way forward, he suggested, is to encourage entrepreneurship and support startups that can generate entirely new categories of jobs.
Despite the challenges, Seth struck an optimistic note. With a young population, clear policy intent from the government and growing momentum across the AI ecosystem, he believes India’s journey is just beginning. But lasting change, he emphasised, must start early—in schools that nurture curiosity, creativity, and the confidence to take risks. If India can make that shift, he said, it will not merely adjust to the AI era, but carve out a leadership role on its own terms. The following is an excerpt from the interview.
ETB: You’ve just stepped out after addressing a session at the India AI Summit. What are your immediate takeaways from the discussions? In your view, what should be the larger objective of this summit, and what does it truly mean for India’s AI ambitions?
Nitin Seth: First, it was quite an overwhelming feeling. I have been part of many AI summits and conferences, but never like this. On the positive side, the scale of the AI summit and the number of thought leaders, industry leaders, and educationists who have been brought together is very inspiring. But at the same time, it was a little bit like an Indian wedding. It was like Kumbh Mela without the spiritual bliss. So, maybe you know, it has ended up being a little bit of quantity over quality.
Now, to your other question about the objective of the summit: it must establish India’s leadership position in AI globally. At the same time, it should serve to mobilise the government machinery and various stakeholders internally, putting focused attention on AI, which is the defining trend of our times. In that sense, the summit carries both an external ambition and an internal mission.
ETB: Where does India stand today in the AI race alongside the US and China? And over the next decade, what must India prioritise to emerge as a serious global contender?
Nitin Seth: Both the US and China are far ahead in the AI race. The US is led by big tech players who are investing trillions of dollars and have built most of the AI infrastructure. China, in some ways, is even ahead of the US. They have taken a very strategic approach, developing AI not just from a private sector or enterprise perspective but also as a national tool.
Compared to them, India is still far behind. But the opportunity for India is tremendous. In fact, both the American and Chinese models have significant gaps that India can potentially fill. The American model is highly capital-intensive, making it costly with limited ROI. It is also very energy- and consumption-intensive, which is not sustainable from a planetary perspective. The Chinese model is more efficient but lacks trust.
This opens up a unique opportunity for India to leverage its traditional strength in frugal innovation—what we often call jugaad. Jugaad, in this context, can be a positive force. By combining frugal innovation with the idea of “safe and trusted AI”, which has been a major theme at this India AI Summit, I think it could be a huge opportunity for India.
ETB: India has traditionally been strong in tech services. With the government now prioritising AI, do you see this as the moment for India to move beyond services and emerge as a global technology leader? What should be the government’s key focus to enable that shift?
Nitin Seth: Very well said. I believe AI provides us with that opportunity because it is not a normal technology—it has the potential to help us leapfrog. The Indian IT industry is a large and powerful sector. While it’s often said that we haven’t built enough products, the industry has significant strengths both in technology and domain expertise.
Now is the time to make the shift from a services focus to a product focus. There is also a risk: if we don’t make this transition, the industry could decline. But if we do, the opportunity is enormous—we can capture far more value.
Today, across the technology value chain, India is doing perhaps 80 per cent of the work but only capturing 10 to 20 per cent of the value. This is the moment to take the next leap: to move beyond that 20 per cent and capture a much larger share of the 80 per cent of value that we are currently missing.
ETB: India has a strong demographic dividend, but with AI advancing rapidly, how do you see its impact on jobs? Are we looking at disruption or opportunity?
Nitin Seth: Let us be very clear—this is real. Over the longer term, in the next 15 years, 35 to 50 per cent of all jobs will disappear. That is a very big number, and the impact will be felt most in the services sector, particularly white-collar jobs. In some ways, it may be safer to be a plumber or a factory worker than a computer science engineer.
The disruption will be significant, and it will happen. We must prepare for it by creating new jobs. These jobs don’t exist today, and they will not automatically emerge with AI—that’s a misconception. To generate them, we will need new types of businesses and new ideas. This will require creativity and problem-solving at scale. But it is possible. If we rise to the challenge and create these opportunities, then the future can truly be ours.
ETB: You witnessed the computer revolution and the fear that came with it. Do you see the current anxiety around AI as similar, or is this disruption fundamentally different? And how can we prepare to sustain and adapt in this transition?
Nitin Seth: I would say the AI age—and both its threats and opportunities—is bigger than the Computer Age and the Internet Age. Those were two significant technological eras we have lived through, but this is larger. There is no escaping it; you cannot sit this one out. AI is going to impact us in a very big way. That is why I wrote Human Edge in the AI Age—to emphasise that humans remain deeply relevant. AI is becoming very powerful, and it will affect all work. Yes, it will impact jobs, but that does not mean human value disappears. It simply has to be expressed differently.
We must recognise that while people seek certainty and reduced risk, the future will demand a return to pioneering instincts—like those of early humans, who were adventurers, hunter-gatherers, constantly adapting to survive and thrive. I’m not saying we are going back to caves, but the world built over the last couple of centuries will change dramatically in the next 10–15 years. We must be ready for that.
What will be required is creativity and imagination that surpasses AI. And that comes from expanding our consciousness. Even a century ago, thinkers like Sri Aurobindo spoke of super-consciousness. That vision is more relevant than ever as we navigate this transition.
ETB: The Prime Minister has often said India cannot afford to miss another technology wave, including AI. Given the current policies and push from the government, do you believe India is moving fast enough to seize this opportunity, or does the pace and approach still need significant acceleration?
Nitin Seth: I feel very positive that the Government of India—and the Prime Minister in particular—has real intent to use AI as a way for India to leapfrog. I believe they genuinely want India to become a leader in this space.
At the same time, when it comes to our overall strategy and approach to AI, there is still much more that needs to be done. There are many good initiatives underway, but the magnitude of the challenge for India is perhaps greater than for other economies, largely because of the shape of our talent pyramid. We are a young nation, with more than 500 million people below the age of 35. That makes the challenge bigger—but it also makes the opportunity equally large.
