Tight Numbers Game Begins For Fourth Rajya Sabha Seat From Odisha

By Minati Singh

Bhubaneswar: The elections for the four recently-vacated Rajya Sabha seats in Odisha have taken an interesting turn, after three major parties announced the names of their candidates. One of the founders of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Dilip Roy, who later joined the BJP, has announced that he will contest as an Independent in the Rajya Sabha elections, making sure that the election for the fourth seat from the state will be exciting.

The Rajya Sabha elections are held under the preferential voting system, in which only the MLAs vote. There are a total of 147 MLAs in the Odisha Assembly. A candidate needs about 30 votes to win one of the four seats. The party-wise strength in the Assembly after the 2024 Assembly elections is as follows: BJP 82 (after by-elections), BJD 48 (after suspension of two MLAs), Congress 14, CPI(M) 1, and Independent 2.

While the picture for the first three seats is more or less clear, the fourth seat is the most interesting and decisive. All parties are eyeing the arithmetic and political equations for this seat. With 82 votes, the BJP can easily win two seats, spending 60 votes. With 48 votes, the BJD can secure the third seat.

Thereafter, the electoral math for the fourth seat becomes interesting. After the third seat, BJP will have 22 votes left (82-60), while the BJD will have 18 votes (48-30). That means neither with have 30 votes individually. This will make the 14 votes of the Congress, 1 of the CPI(M) and 2 of the Independents decisive.

Datteswar Hota, the joint Congress-BJD candidate for the fourth seat, can win easily, if the opposition manages to maintain their unity, and prevent any cross-voting. However, Dilip Roy appears to have BJP's 22 votes, in which case he would need just 8 more to win. This is considered difficult but not impossible.

If for some reason the opposition BJD and Congress fail to unite, then the second preferential vote of each voting member will be counted. If every party votes for separate candidates, the BJP will easily win the fourth seat, but if any candidate is absent or the vote is rejected, then the calculation will be different.

This is where the many years of political experience of former Union Minister and senior leader Dilip Roy is expected to come into play and help him win. By contesting without a party ticket or banner, but with the assured support of the BJP, he has projected himself as an Independent candidate.

"I'm hopeful that I will win this election. That's why I have decided to contest as an Independent. I will have good relations with everyone, meet everyone and ask them to vote for me. I will take time from Naveen Babu (Naveen Patnaik, BJD chief) and Bhakta Babu (Bhakta Charan Das, Odisha Congress president) and talk about this," said Roy.

He had earlier managed to win a Rajya Sabha seat through cross-voting in 2002. With the BJP's remaining 22 votes, he needs just 8 more votes. Assuming that he can gain the support of the two Independent MLAs, all he has to ensure is cross-voting by opposition MLAs.

The contest against the BJD and Congress's joint candidate Datteswar Hota will play a crucial role in political strategy in the state in the future, testing party loyalty and possibly creating a new equation. While the BJP today announced Manmohan Samal and Sujit Kumar as its candidates, the BJD has already declared Santrupta Mishra as its representative. BJP state president Manmohan Samal said, "We know Dilip Roy's victory is certain, so we are supporting him."