NC's 'Ill Timed' Statehood Protest Unlikely To Convince Centre Over Kashmir Policy, Say Observers

Srinagar: On Monday, Zamir Abdullah, the son of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, posted a video from New Delhi on his social media handle.

His face and nose were covered with a handkerchief as he marched with some National Conference leaders and workers in the national capital. "The draconian and repressive tool of tear gas shall never deter us, we continue to stand steadfast in our resolve for our dignity snd (sic) rights. #WeMarch," Zamir wrote in his post.

The young Abdullah, a lawyer who is also trying to find his foothold in politics, accompanied his father and his grandfather near Delhi's Jantar Mantar to stage a protest demanding the restoration of statehood to J&K. Forty-one legislators of the National Conference, its three Members of Parliament, along with Congress MLAs participated in the protest.

While Zamir's video and message implied they were tear-gassed, the reality was starkly different. Central Delhi was chaotic as thousands poured in to be a part of Cockroach Janta Party's Chalo Sansad march against paper leaks, unemployment, and alleged corruption.

It was the pro-CJP crowds, which, according to some reports, numbered above 20,000, who faced police batons and tear gas shells, not the National Conference leaders, as Zamir's post inferred. NC's protest, instead, was shadowed by the CJP march, which literally brought the heart of the national capital to a standstill.

Which brings us to a few important questions. Did NC choose a wrong time for its protest? Did it shake the nearby power corridors for delaying their long-pending promise of restoring J&K's statehood?

To understand it, ETV Bharat spoke to a few Kashmir and political experts. Let's first briefly refresh our memories to know what led NC to come all the way from Jammu and Kashmir, especially at a time when rains and floods are battering the UT, to make these demands on a day when the Centre was already caught up with managing the CJP protest.

The state of Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded to a Union Territory after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. It marked a defining moment in J&K politics, altering the way people thought and spoke about the place. For years after it, the UT was governed by Lieutenant Governors installed by Delhi, with the incumbent Manoj Sinha holding the office for over 5 years now.

Omar Abdullah grabbed the chance of becoming J&K UT's first Chief Minister in the 2024 Assembly election despite initially refusing to run for it. His party, the National Conference, promised to fight for the erstwhile state's special status in its poll manifesto. Despite the Supreme Court's directions to the Centre to fix a timeline to restore the statehood, the Centre has repeatedly said the wish can only be granted at an "appropriate time".

Two years in power, the National Conference has found it difficult to convince New Delhi. Which is what brought Omar and his team to Delhi on the first day of the Parliament's monsoon session on Monday. The National Conference aimed to build pressure on the central government, albeit with a disclaimer by leaders that the protest was aimed at 'reminding PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah of their commitment'.

Notwithstanding the dovish gestures and overtures by its leadership, the ruling NC's statehood protest, experts say, is unlikely to compel the Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government to restore the statehood or alter its own timeline.

The Delhi protest occurred amid the growing divide among J&K’s political parties. Regional parties, including political opponent Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led by former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti turned down the NC's invite, arguing the protest centred on statehood alone "legitimises" the abrogation of Article 370. She was among 52 national and regional leaders across the country invited to the NC protest at Jantar Mantar.

Radha Kumar, a former central government-appointed interlocutor on J&K, feels the absence of a united political front is one of the reasons for New Delhi not to be worried over the protest.

She said that the Modi government does not treat restoration of statehood as a priority for two reasons. One falls under the domain of security (law and order) and the second is the BJP's preference for maintaining tight control in border states including Jammu and Kashmir.

"They (BJP) have heavily invested in the Lieutenant Governor to maintain tight control. Any perception that it is giving in to the NC's protest would run contrary to the government’s narrative," Kumar said, identifying this as an additional factor for the delay in restoration of statehood.

An academic, she fears that the central government’s heavy-handed policy is "both undemocratic and lacking strategy".

"The policy of unending security clampdown works on fear, which is bound to lead to anger and even revival of armed attacks, as the Red Fort car bomb attack indicates," Kumar added.

"Moreover, relying on fear to control anger requires day-to-day security presence to keep people in constant fear. Where is the end goal? By contrast, the Vajpayee and Manmohan peace processes did have the end goal of securing peace through addressing people’s aspirations,” she said, citing the dipping terror graph after India and Pakistan upheld a truce.

NC workers protest to demand restoration of statehood to J&K (IANS)

Amitabh Tiwari, a leading political strategist, said the central government sees the restoration of statehood as a decision to be taken on its own terms rather than under political pressure.

He feels the NC protest was "wrongly timed" as the central government is dealing with the CJP protest, the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament and issues like a cabinet reshuffle.

"Statehood is a non-issue for them at this time. The BJP has been trying to consolidate their position in J&K. So it would like to take credit for restoration of statehood at its own time, maybe like the next election. But it is unlikely that the central government will buckle under NC pressure and allow it to take credit,” Tiwari added.

NC workers protest to demand restoration of statehood to J&K (PTI)

Noor Ahmad Baba, political analyst and a former university teacher, said the protest serves a domestic audience but is unlikely to shift New Delhi to change its policy on J&K.

"Right now, it is a symbolic protest. I don’t think the protest is going to influence New Delhi at this time unless it is substantially followed up,” he added.

Baba notes that the presence of political parties like Congress and non-NDA allies might annoy New Delhi and "alter" the political relationship between the centre and the union territory government.

Read More

1. Omar Abdullah Leads NC Protest In Delhi To Demand Statehood To J&K After Article 370 Abrogation
2. 'Half-Hearted Demand': PDP Chief Mehbooba Mufti Turns Down NC Invitation For J&K Statehood Protest; Wants Article 370 On Agenda