Will The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Ever End?
Ways and means must be found as soon as possible to resolve the conflict amicably under the globally accepted norms of international governance.
Published : March 1, 2026 at 6:53 PM IST
The 24th of February 2026 marked the completion of four years of the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which undoubtedly is Europe’s most devastating war since WWII; it has caused enormous loss of human lives and substantial material damages, besides causing disruptions in essential supply chains, particularly in the case of energy and food. The impact of the conflict is being felt beyond the region. Of late, there have been moments of discomfort between the US and its NATO allies over the handling of the crisis.
Numerous peace initiatives undertaken during 2022-2025 failed to deliver any meaningful results. The fate of the peace talks now being mediated by the US remains to be seen in view of the complexities of the issues involved.
In order to understand the current state of affairs, it would be relevant to briefly recall the backdrop in which the conflict broke out and developed subsequently.
Brief Background
Russia's invasion was preceded by the rejection of the proposals made by Russia to the US and NATO through two separate draft agreements on 17th December 2021. The two core demands made by Russia in these draft agreements included commitments from the US and NATO:
- NATO will not expand further eastwards by admitting former USSR States (now independent countries), e.g. Ukraine, Georgia, etc.
- The US/NATO will not deploy any forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997.
These demands were expectedly not acceptable to the US/NATO. From Russia’s perspective, Ukraine’s membership of NATO brings the western military alliance to the doorsteps of Russia and thereby pose serious threat to its security. Russia wants Ukraine to continue as a buffer State between NATO and Russia. Russia’s response to the rejection of its proposals was the launch on 24th February, 2022, of what Russia called “Special military operation” in Ukraine, whereas the West considers it a full - scale military invasion.
How has Ukraine managed to prolong the war?
The initial assessment by the scholars and defence experts was that Russia would bring Ukraine to its knees within weeks if not days. The assessment was based on the assumption that Ukraine, on its own, will not be able to withstand the onslaught from Russia in view of the comparatively stronger military strength of Russia. However, it soon became clear that the US and major European countries were seeing an opportunity in the Ukraine crisis, and together they decided to exploit the situation and weaken Russia economically and militarily. Sanctions were imposed on Russia; its overseas assets were frozen, and simultaneously, substantial financial and military assistance, including the sharing of real-time intelligence, was put at the disposal of Ukraine by the US and EU. The Russia -Ukraine conflict thus soon developed into a proxy war between Russia at one end and NATO at the other end, the latter firing from the shoulders of Ukraine. According to a CFR report, as on 31st December, 2025, the US Congress had made available $188 bn in spending related to the war in Ukraine. In addition, in late 2024, the US also provided the Ukrainian government with a $20 bn loan via the World Bank, which is to be repaid through interest generated from frozen Russian assets. According to the Council of Europe, the EU has, since the start of the war, mobilised Euro 104 bn in financial, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
The US and Europe have succeeded in putting the proverbial spoke in Russia’s wheels, but have failed in compelling Russia to withdraw. The sanctions haven’t yielded the desired results, Further, Russia has not only made significant territorial gains in the eastern part of Ukraine but has also incorporated Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation by conducting Referenda in those regions in late September 2022.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict under US President Donald Trump
The US approach to the conflict has undergone a visible change since the election of Donald Trump as the US President in January 2025. Whereas the US under President Joe Biden and its European allies were inclined to defeat Russia through military means and economic measures, Donald Trump is keen to go down in history for stopping the war and resolving the conflict.
The current Status
In the past over one year of Trump’s presidency, there have been moments of hope and despair for both President Trump as well as international community. However, it has not been possible to halt the war, despite the high-visibility meeting between President Trump and President Putin (Alaska, mid. August, 2025) and several rounds of direct talks between the Russians and Ukrainians set up and mediated by the USA.
The issues at hand are so complex that it will not be easy to reach an agreement unless both sides are willing to dilute their demands and make some compromises. The most contentious are the issues of the Ukrainian territories, Ukraine’s NATO membership and related to that the issue of “security guarantees” for Ukraine in the post conflict scenario. Russia is adamant not to move out of the eastern part of Ukraine currently under its occupation, comprising nearly one-fifth of Ukraine; this is in addition to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Russia is demanding global recognition of Crimes as an integral part of Russia. Ukraine is unwilling to make any compromise on this issue and cede its territories. President Trump is not averse to the idea of Russia retaining these territories, but the Europeans are on the side of Ukraine, maintaining that such a move will be against the globally accepted principle of sovereignty and respect for territorial integrity, and the handing over of the Ukrainian territories to Russia will create a bad precedent. The next is the issue of "security guarantees" for Ukraine, presuming that it is agreed not to admit Ukraine into NATO. (The prospects of Ukraine’s NATO membership are remote under the present circumstances. But, will Russia agree to the presence of the US/European forces on the Ukrainian territory instead of Ukraine’s NATO membership? Related to the resolution of the conflict are the issues of lifting of sanctions on Russia, unfreezing its overseas assets, compensations by Russia for the reconstruction of Ukraine, withdrawal of charges of war crimes against Russia, etc.
The Impact of the Conflict on India
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict put India in a tight spot. At the time of the beginning of the conflict, India was enjoying cordial relations with all parties to the conflict- Russia and Ukraine, as well as the USA and major European States such as the UK, France and Germany. The expectations from India from the Western partners were two-fold: join them in their anti-Russia campaign in general, and stop buying oil from Russia at discounted prices in particular. India refused to oblige them on both counts and remained committed to safeguarding its strategic autonomy in pursuing its policy of multi-alignment and according high priority to its energy security in overall national interests. India did not condemn Russia for its military action in Ukraine, but was explicit at the same time that it stood on the side of peace, underlining that "this is not the era of war" and that all disputes must be resolved peacefully through dialogue and diplomacy.
Over a period of time, the Biden administration in the USA and the European partners appeared to have come to terms with India’s position. However, President Trump, in his wisdom, decided in August this year to impose an additional "punitive" tariffs of 25% over imports from India on account of its refusal to stop purchase of discounted oil from Russia; this decision which raised the cumulative US tariffs on imports from India to as high as 50% obviously caused some strains in the bilateral relations. Fortunately, President Trump’s announcement in February this year to lift the penal tariffs and bring the overall tariffs down from 50% to18%, combined with the announcement of a framework agreement for the US-India Trade deal in the next few months, has removed the irritants for the time being. The ambiguity over whether or not India has made any specific assurances to US on discontinuing the purchase of oil from Russia as claimed by President Trump should be treated as addressed in the Foreign Secretary’s statement (February, 2026) in which he said inter-alia that India will maintain multiple sources of energy and diversify them to ensure stability, with national interest guiding all purchases.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has gone beyond the region and continues to pose a serious threat to global stability and security. It cannot be allowed to become a never- ending conflict with its devastating fallout for humanity. Ways and means must be found as soon as possible to resolve the conflict amicably under the globally accepted norms of international governance.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.
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