Why Iran's Clerical Regime Has Not Fallen: A Diplomat Juxtaposes Persian Glory And Modern Resistance
The prospect of regime change in Iran remains as elusive today as it was in the years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, writes Ambassador T V Narendra Prasad (Retd).
Published : April 7, 2026 at 10:33 AM IST
Iran, inheritor of an ancient Persian civilisation dating back more than 4,000 years, occupies a unique position in global geopolitics. With its vast natural resources, strategic geography bridging West Asia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus, and a deeply rooted cultural identity, Iran commands attention far beyond its borders.
This beautiful country, with a population exceeding 90 million, boasts the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea, and the majestic Alborz mountains. Cities like Tehran feature well-planned roads, lush gardens and parks, universities, and industries. The nation is rich not only in oil and natural gas but also in water and agricultural wealth, including a variety of fruits, nuts, and vegetables.
Shiraz, renowned for its breathtaking beauty, has inspired poets like Hafez Shirazi, whose mesmerising words are often attributed to the city’s allure. Tehran, once known as the "Paris of Asia," transformed into the Islamic Republic of Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This revolution established a clerical regime and marked a significant shift in Iran's political landscape.
Under the Shah, Iran was an imperial republic closely aligned with Western nations, particularly France and the United States. The Shah’s pompous nature was evident when he reportedly requested permission from the Indian government to celebrate a milestone in his enthronement at the Taj Mahal—only to be politely declined.
India and Iran have enjoyed civilizational linkages for centuries. Maharaja Ranjit Singh reached Tehran during his campaigns through Afghanistan and met the rulers there. The influence of the Persian language—known for its honey-sweet quality—extends to all Indian languages, as it was the court language during Mughal rule. Even Central Asian countries of Turkic origin were heavily influenced by Persian due to contiguous geography and the language's uniqueness. The famous Peacock Throne (Takht-e-Tavous), looted by Nader Shah, remains on display in Tehran.
Iran, Israel, and the US have been at loggerheads for over four decades since the Islamic Revolution. I witnessed the fervour at Inquilab Square when I landed in Tehran on my first posting after joining the Indian Foreign Service on February 13, 1995. Fiery speeches against the USA and Israel are a common theme in Iranian rallies. It’s a different matter that many Iranians continued migrating to the USA even after the revolution, as America remains a favourite destination for aspiring youth.
Huge hoardings proclaiming “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” are impossible to miss while passing through the city. Of course, most gatherings are well-orchestrated by the government and its agencies. You also cannot miss the large compound of the American embassy, scrawled with “Den of Spies.” It was under siege after the revolution for 444 days, with 66 American diplomatic staff as hostages.
Processions, demonstrations, and celebrations of the Inquilab (Revolution) or Friday prayers—drawing thousands—were thrust upon the people; voluntary participation by the majority was rare. The clerical regime faced challenges in fostering economic growth and curbing youth adoption of Western values, including dress and partying. It soon realized that stability and sustenance of Islamic tenets and mullah rule required stricter implementation of Sharia across schools, universities, and government offices.
The regime unleashed religious police, backed by the Basij—a nightmare for women, youth, and those rejecting Islamic values like hair covering, unshaven beards, full-sleeve shirts, non-alcoholism, regular prayers, and respect for clerics. I heard and saw harsh punishments, such as marrying young girls found in parks with partners to old mullahs in Qom’s theological schools—a city dominated by clerics—or blackening the faces of men in short-sleeved shirts.
The regime positioned itself as custodian of the Islamic Ummah (all Muslims worldwide), irking Saudi Arabia (guardian of Mecca and Medina) and Turkey (evoking its Ottoman legacy). Tensions between Sunni-majority Gulf countries and Shia-majority Iran led to occasional open clashes. Population-wise, the Middle East is dominated by Shias due to Iran’s 90 million-plus people.
Under Khomeini and later Khamenei, Iran enforced strict Sharia through structures like Basij, Pasdaran (IRGC), Guardians Council, and Expediency Council. The system stifled moderate leaders via checks and balances, showing zero tolerance for deviation or criticism of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader). The Majlis (Parliament) Speaker was always a hardcore loyalist overseeing the executive, while a senior cleric headed the judiciary to enforce Sharia.
Iranians often view themselves as superior to Arabs in history and culture, declaring so openly. Compulsory Friday prayers, conscription, and constant confrontation with the US and West bred simmering discontent among youth. University students chafed under strict Islamic rules, seeing religious rigidity as an impediment to global scientific and commercial progress.
The government curbed free information flow, Hollywood cinemas, and Western music. Even neckties for men are considered haram—no Iranian official wears one. Efforts to introduce science and technology came with caveats, perceived as regressive. Media is strictly controlled, with state television (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, IRIB) as a government mouthpiece. People watched satellite TV via dishes, risking heavy penalties.
The Internet and information revolution had a limited impact. Gossip, internal politics, and rivalries spread via secretive radio, online editions, and periodicals from within and outside Iran. President Rafsanjani in the early 1990s seemed a moderate administrator with influence, but the Supreme Leader ended his two terms per the constitution. His bid for Ayatollah status and spiritual leadership failed; rivals made him head of the Expediency Council as a buffer, but it didn’t last.
Supremacy of the Leader and the clerical regime remained the cornerstone. Later moderates like President Khatami, elected with youth support for reforms, failed too. Student demonstrations against oppression over four decades met harsh responses, including deaths and imprisonment at the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran.
Political analysts have predicted a bloody or non-bloody revolution against the regime for decades, citing discontent from a poor economy—due to internal mismanagement and Western sanctions—and devaluation of the Iranian rial, alienating the powerful Bazari (traders). Anti-establishment voices used banned radio and print media, but reported revolts were short-lived and unsuccessful. Even Khamenei’s recent killing during the war sparked no street uprisings.
Like analysts over the years, the Trump administration miscalculated the clerical regime’s internal resilience—not just religious structures, but Iran’s large population, military strength, and anti-US/anti-Israel sentiments instilled over decades. This war proves external forces cannot easily dislodge it, despite eliminating top leadership, including the Supreme Leader and military officials.
Iran is no stranger to war; it fought a decade-long conflict with Iraq while sustaining its economy and stability. Iran developed arms focused on Israel, emphasising long-range missiles against its arch-enemy. Gulf nations drew closer to Israel via the Abraham Accords to counter Iran. Despite sanctions and threats, Iran maintained oil and gas output through ties with China and Russia—following Chanakya’s dictum that an enemy’s enemy is a friend—for equipment and defense programs.
Even Mossad’s deep infiltration couldn’t sway IRGC seniors. Amid the war, IRGC and Pasdaran maintain full control of law and order, preventing revolts. Killing innocent civilians by the US and Israel backfires, hardening public resolve against regime change.
India and Iran share civilizational ties but have navigated tensions. Post-revolution, Iran monitored Muslim issues in India, criticising the Babri Masjid demolition in the early 1990s and expressing solidarity with anti-India elements in Kashmir, where Khomeini portraits hung in Shia homes. In 1995, as OIC head, President Rafsanjani cancelled a scheduled visit to India without reason—ostensibly over Babri.
Despite Shia-Sunni frictions with Pakistan, Iran backed it in past India confrontations. Iranians proved shrewd businessmen; no major Indian firms entered energy or construction under the clerical regime. India views Iran as vital for regional energy, transit to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia—especially as a neighbour until 1947. Yet relations have been blow-hot-and-cold, strained by India’s ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, and Israel.
India persisted with Chabahar Port investment, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and oil/gas interests. Imports peaked at $9 billion in 2018 but fell due to US secondary sanctions. Chabahar advanced slowly; Iran lagged in connecting infrastructure. The Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline stalled over politics and India-Pakistan tensions. Full potential remains unrealised due to Iran’s lack of vision and trust. Trade stayed basic: Indian rice, tea, pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, and tractors for Iranian crude.
Iran’s stubbornness troubles neighbours, fearing the export of hardcore Islam. It failed to deepen Central Asia ties despite civilizational links and perpetuates animosity with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It resents US bases in Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain.
In Bahrain, where Shias outnumber the Sunni royalty, Iran fomented unrest, pushing Bahrain toward Saudi protection. Saudis hate Iran’s Yemen role, backing Houthis who’ve targeted Saudi oil and airports with drones and missiles. Iran has sustained the war for over a month despite leadership assassinations, refusing to bow to the US—an outcome analysts didn’t expect.
If regime change was the US goal, it failed; Iran fights on, averting unrest. Iranians' pride and rich culture make takeover—like Venezuela’s—imprudent. Israel likely influenced US thinking, but the world now sees Iran’s military depth. Israel and Gulf states want a weak Iran, but is it feasible? An unstable Iran, with huge oil and the world’s second-largest gas reserves, harms global interests. Will the IRGC abandon the fight without revenge on Israel for the killings from Suleimani in 2019 to the Supreme Leader?
A peaceful, progressive Iran—ending support for Hezbollah and Hamas—benefits the region and world. Can the US install a moderate leader meeting Iranian and American wishes? We must wait and watch swift developments. The US pounding of Iran isn’t the solution; it risks prolonged regional instability and global recession. Carpet bombing or boots on the ground will only fuel Iranian resistance to regime change, as seen in US interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Regime change remains elusive, with no internal support emerging during the war as expected.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are those of the writer. They do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.)
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