Trump-Xi Meeting: An Important Node In Global Powershift
Trump-Xi summit will shape the discussions likely to take place throughout the year -Writes Politeia Research Foundation Chairperson Sanjay Pulipaka
Published : May 13, 2026 at 12:35 PM IST
Will the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing herald a new era of cooperation or mark a continuation of the managed contestation between the US and China? The meeting was originally scheduled for the last week of March and the first week of April. However, because the US President was indisposed due to the Iran war, it was rescheduled for 14-15 May.
The last time a US President visited China was almost nine years ago, and therefore, the proposed visit of US President Trump to China has acquired importance. The visit will be marked by an extensive ceremony and effusive commentary. However, behind the state dinners and diplomatic protocols, both countries will engage in tough negotiations with implications for global power relations.
Unlike during Trump's first term, China is now much better prepared for his harsh rhetoric. Trump and Xi Jinping have met about 6 times thus far, including state visits and meetings on the sidelines of various multilateral events. Chinese leaders have a much better assessment of US President Donald Trump and his diplomatic tactics.
This visit marks the first of many interactions that President Trump and President Xi Jinping will likely have this year. China is the chair of APEC, and the US is chairing the G20; policymakers from both sides will be visiting each other’s capitals frequently. The outcome of the conversation between President Trump and President Xi Jinping will shape the discussions likely to take place throughout the year.
Iran
Regardless of whether both sides formally acknowledge it, Iran will be a major topic of conversation. For China, the Iran War created a few challenges and offered a few opportunities. In 2025, China purchased about 80 per cent of Iran’s oil, which accounted for about 13.4 per cent of its oil imports by sea. The current Iran War has disrupted relatively cheaper oil flows from Iran to China.
The reduced oil flow from Iran is negatively affecting the Chinese economy. On the other hand, the Iran war gave China unexpected leverage. Pakistan facilitated peace talks between the US and Iran. Islamabad is also carrying messages between Iran and the United States. In conversations with Iran, whenever Islamabad encountered a roadblock, it turned to Beijing for assistance.
As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with close economic and political ties to Iran, China can nudge Iran’s negotiating positions. Therefore, Pakistan’s role as a facilitator in the Iran peace talks is backed by China. The United States is also concerned that China may provide weapons and support Iran’s war efforts.
President Trump called on the Chinese leadership not to provide weapons to Iran. Subsequently, Trump stated that a ship carrying weapons from China to Iran was apprehended, and added that China will face ‘big problems’ if it supplies air defence systems to Iran.
Given the twin possibilities of either extending military support or nudging Iran towards fruitful peace talks, China has new leverage in its negotiations with President Donald Trump.
Taiwan
Taiwan could be another major geopolitical issue that both leaders may discuss. Beijing’s statements on fully integrating Taiwan into China are well known. The US policy thus far has been not to “support independence for Taiwan or unilateral moves that would change the status quo.”
By contrast, China is keen that the United States should explicitly oppose Taiwan's independence and refrain from arms sales to Taiwan. While President Trump has expressed his displeasure that Taiwan ‘stole’ the US chip business, it is unlikely that he would make a major concession on Taiwan. Nonetheless, the Chinese leadership will explore every possibility to get the US to alter its stance on Taiwan.
Economic Issues
Economic cooperation will feature prominently in the discussion between the two leaders. There is considerable strain in the bilateral economic relations due to differences on a range of issues, including intellectual property rights, China’s trade practices, and Trump’s tariffs.
Last year, President Trump imposed tariffs of about 145 per cent on China. In response to Trump's tariffs, China imposed restrictions on exports of rare earth metals to the United States.
Rare earth metals are critical to the functioning of advanced technologies, including mobile phones, drones and fighter jets. Subsequently, an informal truce followed as both sides adjusted their punitive economic measures.
Given the slowdown in the country's growth, China would be keen to avoid another trade war with the US. The economic and resource interdependencies between the Chinese and American economies have also made it difficult for the Trump administration to persist with its strategy of imposing massive tariffs on China.
Given the economic challenges posed by Iran’s War, it is unlikely that the Trump administration will reignite a trade war. The Trump administration will demand that China buy agricultural commodities, such as corn and soybeans, in large quantities from the US. While China had earlier promised to do so, this did not translate into actual purchases.
The US leadership may also demand that China buy Boeing jet engines for civilian aircraft and other engineering equipment from the US. In the long run, it is unlikely that China will continue to procure such equipment without economic pressure.
Generating sustained economic pressure on China will require a cohesive regional economic strategy from the US. Under the Trump administration, it appears the United States has abandoned a regional strategy in response to China's economic rise.
Earlier US administrations discussed the Trans-Pacific Partnership and sought to work with allies and friends to create an alternative economic framework that celebrates free markets and transparency.
By focusing on bilateral trade relations and imposing tariffs on allies and friends, President Trump gave China an opportunity to scale up its regional engagement. Today, with $1.055 trillion in trade in 2025, Southeast Asian countries are China's largest trading partners.
AI and Technology
The digital technology domain has emerged as an important site of contestation between China and the US. The United States has imposed selective export restrictions on advanced AI and semiconductor chips.
Even if the US and China reach an agreement during Trump’s visit on advanced technologies such as AI and semiconductors, it will be only temporary. This is because China is playing a long game to emerge as a genuine technological superpower with very limited dependence on the United States and the West.
While China will seek to procure advanced chips from the United States, its long-term goal will be to avoid dependence on US chips and to emerge as an AI and semiconductor superpower in its own right.
Conclusion
There are a host of issues on which the US and China will have to work hard to find common ground. However, the success of the summit will be defined by unpredictable variables, such as the leadership’s negotiation styles.
Despite months of preparation, President Trump tends to turn state visits into personal diplomacy characterised by sudden shifts in policy positions. On the other hand, China will not alter its ambition to emerge as a superpower. The upcoming summit is not an endgame but an important node in the global power shift.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
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