Fragmented Iran Unites After Khamenei Assassination; Will Muslim Neighbours Align With US-Israel Against Tehran Or Stay Neutral?
The situation has spiraled into broader regional conflict, involving other Muslim countries in the neighbourhood for providing military bases to the US.
By Bilal Bhat
Published : March 2, 2026 at 8:35 PM IST
|Updated : March 3, 2026 at 7:36 AM IST
The United States and Israel primarily launched a military offensive aimed at bridling and hobbling Iran, with the ultimate goal of facilitating regime change. However, this catastrophic shift towards war seems to be providing an unexpected opportunity for Iran's religious establishment. The clerical leadership is now consolidating its base, which had been stumbling following the mass protests triggered originally after the death of a young woman in custody when she allegedly refused to wear a headscarf several years ago.
Young women and men, across the country, became deeply disgruntled after security forces responded with unchecked aggression against protesters. These defiant youths were rejecting the strict religious rules imposed on them by the regime led by the supreme leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian security forces used massive force against protesters to curb the voices, which resulted in several casualties. What started as internal and regional grievances, within no time, evolved into a national movement, and later garnered international attention, then giving the US President, Donald Trump, an opportunity to warn the Iranian government against the use of force towards unarmed civilians.
Despite the intensity of these protests, particularly the recent ones in January 2025, the US largely restricted its response to rhetoric. The country acted when it apparently had no major threat except for what they have been bragging about that Iran is making nuclear weapons. Had Donald Trump intervened when the country was protesting against the regime, the Iranian public might have responded differently. However, the sudden and abrupt assassination of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, appears to be a strategic 'miscalculation' in terms of the timing of the attack. Rather than triggering a collapse of the regime, these attacks on Iranian leadership have been framed as an attack on Iran’s sovereignty. Paradoxically, these attacks have unified a population that was previously fractured, consolidating support for a regime that, just months ago, faced its greatest domestic challenge in decades.
Unlike most nations, Iran's military structure is complex rather opaque in a lot of ways. These structures are entwined, making them sometimes vulnerable to external forces. Finding a Supreme Leader of the country at the headquarters of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran and getting killed at such an obvious location is a fallout of their structure. Khamineni and other military leaders of different groups were killed in the US and Israel’s joint operation. These webs interwoven functions through a system of parallel forces designed to monitor and balance one another. A key group within this security system is the IRGC, which runs a mobilisation wing known as the Basij. This wing is activated when the country is in crisis to control dissent and garner, gather and mobilise support for the regime when it needs the most. The entire apparatus resembles an intricate, interconnected cobweb, which becomes difficult for rivals to unravel on how each group designs its future course of action and strategy.
As the saying goes, people draw their behaviour largely from the agreed reality of the nation and their systems. Similarly, Iranian society is deeply fragmented, but unpredictable, even the liberals often invoke religious nationalism during "trying times," to show solidarity with the state against perceived foreign aggression. They justify their support, comfortably and unabashedly, for the regime that they were protesting against for months and years. The mass mobilisation and the subsequent protests in Iran for months and years together with the erosion of the "Axis of Resistance" was tempting and apparently looked opportune time for the fall of regime. The fall could have happened, may be naturally as people headed in that direction. However, the US alongside Israel chose military action and went to war against Iran. The biggest challenge that the US and Israel thought was an imminent backlash from Iranian proxies.
The "Axis of Resistance" has been significantly curbed and subjugated following the systematic dismantling of its leadership by Israeli forces in the wake of the October 7 attacks. The devastation of Gaza, the "decapitation" of Hezbollah's high command and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, had left Iran isolated. Previously, Tehran served as the central hub that harnessed and sustained these proxies, now, that entire network is in a shambles. Hamas fighting for its existence, Hezbollah oscillating between desperate resistance and surrender, Assad has disappeared from the scene. Houthis had a nuisance value until bigger forces came into picture and their game came to a close after Iran directly entered into this war.
Iran's geographical location is its greatest strength and its biggest liability. From a Western perspective, the regional control is possible if Iran plays a role for them in global trade. Currently, it serves as a geographic bridge to facilitate the seamless passage of Chinese goods into European markets. Iran is part of China’s Belt and Roads Initiative. Consequently, the West views a defiant or hostile Iran, a potential chokehold on international commerce. It seems, the US and Israel's attack on Iran aimed at decapitating the Iranian leadership and forcing a regime change, did not yield anticipated results. The situation has spiraled into broader regional conflict, involving other Muslim countries in the neighbourhood for providing military bases to the US. One thing which looks interesting is whether Iran's retaliation against neighbouring Muslim nations will force them to align more closely with the US and Israel against Iran or continue keep them in a neutral position.
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