In Depth | The Emerging Axis Where Taliban Draws Line For Its Erstwhile Godfathers In CIA And ISI

The former President of Pakistan, General Zia-ul-Haq once told Lt Gen Akhtar Abdul Rahman Khan, who was heading the Afghanistan Bureau of the ISI in 1979, that “the water in Afghanistan must boil at the right temperature.” This was the time when the Soviets had invaded the country, and Pakistan, along with the United States, wanted to support the resistance movement against the communist regime.

The Soviets no longer control Afghanistan. The Americans, after spending more than 20 years in the country, eventually had to leave, almost overnight, following the Taliban takeover in 2021. The Taliban has now completed five years in power, having inherited the advanced weapons and military equipment left behind by the US forces. The temperature in Afghanistan has risen so high that it has become neither easy for Washington to swallow the consequences nor safe for Pakistan to put a finger into the boiling water, fearing it could burn the entire hand.

Children ride on a motorcycle carrying Taliban flags during celebrations marking the fifth anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power, in Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Nava Jamshidi)

The Taliban’s five years in power are a stark reminder of how an operation launched decades ago by Pakistan’s ISI, in partnership with the CIA, to establish influence in the region appears to be diminishing by the day. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the ISI deployed army officers inside the country to help run the anti-Soviet resistance, with the larger objective of ensuring that Pakistan retained command and influence over Afghanistan after the Soviet defeat.

Brigadier M. Yousuf and Major Mark Adkin, in their book(Afghanistan-The Bear Trap. The defeat of a superpower), described the objective as making Afghanistan another Vietnam, with the Russians stepping into the shoes of the Americans.

The author, a former Pakistani army Brigadier, who was a key person in the Afghanistan Bureau of the ISI also described a department that was referred to as the “software of war”, where CIA money was used to fuel Afghan militias fighting the Soviet army.

Huge quantities of clothing and rations were purchased and sent to the south and east of the Hindu Kush, where Pashto-speaking Afghan fighters were based. Aid was also provided to areas to the north and east of the Hindu Kush, where Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks, many of them Dari- or Persian-speaking, lived.

The regions dominated by Pashtuns later fought against the northern factions after the US invasion of Afghanistan. The northern forces, which were trained and supported by the Americans, eventually fought against the Taliban. The Americans appeared oblivious to the fact that Pashtuns had historically resisted attempts by outside powers to subdue them. Even the British had struggled to bring the region’s warring tribes and clans under their control.

Pakistan had a different agenda when it supported the Afghan Mujahideen. With India and the Soviet Union being allies, Pakistan feared that it could be squeezed out strategically. For the Americans, meanwhile, the Soviet Union was a natural enemy, and Washington wanted Moscow to face what the US had faced in Vietnam. Supporting the Afghan resistance was therefore an extension of American foreign policy.

The intensity with which the US supported the Afghan resistance was comparable to the zeal with which Washington is today backing Israel in its war against Gaza. The US congress’ support to fund the Afghan war against the Soviets was overwhelming.

Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi talks to Taliban delegates from across the country as they gather for a meeting opening celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban's return to power, at Loya Jirga Hall in Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Siddiqullah Alizai)

Congressman Charles Wilson, an avid supporter of US assistance to Afghanistan, was quoted by The Daily Telegraph on January 14, 1985, during a visit to an Afghan base camp at Zhawar, about five kilometres inside Afghanistan, opposite Miram Shah town in Pakistan. Wilson was the first American politician to have ventured into Afghanistan.

The Pakistan Army, meanwhile, had its own men operating inside Afghanistan to gather intelligence and help direct assistance to Afghan fighters. Many of them went missing or became casualties of the war. The Times reported in 1989 that two Pakistani Army intelligence officers had been captured by the Soviets in Kabul. They reportedly confessed to espionage and were imprisoned for more than 16 months at Pul-e-Charkhi, a prison where inmates were said to prefer death to enduring the living nightmare. Both men were disowned by Pakistan. Apart from the military conflict, an intelligence war was being fought in parallel.

The West, including the United States, has repeatedly criticised the Taliban for depriving Afghan women of their rights. Yet the question of women’s rights was also used by the Soviets during their occupation of Afghanistan. After the invasion, the Soviet-backed government made education for Afghan women a priority, but the policies were widely perceived by sections of Afghan society as an assault on their culture and traditions. The very army that the Soviets trained eventually turned against them.

Now, with the Taliban in control, Afghanistan appears to be developing closer relations with India and Russia, as well as China, while its relationship with Pakistan and the United States has become increasingly complicated.

The recent event in Delhi, where the Afghan embassy marked five years of Taliban rule and invited Indian diplomats, was another indication of the changing equations. At the same time, clashes involving Afghan and Pakistani forces along the border have added to the bitterness between Kabul and Islamabad. The Taliban leader, Amir Muttaqi’s 2025 visit to India and his decision to travel to Deoband UP to meet clerics at Darul Uloom Deoband marked a significant shift in regional equations and may have certainly rattled Pakistan. The Taliban’s decision to hold a press briefing in Delhi and subsequently allow women journalists to participate could also indicate a degree of understanding between India and the Taliban that both sides appear comfortable with.

This emerging axis, which places Pakistan and the United States on one side while the Taliban grows closer to the very forces that the CIA and ISI once sought to keep at bay, marks a significant geopolitical shift. How Pakistan and Washington navigate this rough patch they created for themselves is an interesting development to watch.The water that Zia-ul-Haq wanted to boil at the “right temperature” may have eventually boiled over. And the powers that once believed they could control its temperature are now struggling to deal with the consequences.

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