Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Trump’s Bet On A Post-Conflict Middle East
Trump’s return to the White House has created an opening for Riyadh to rebuild, reset, and recast its ties with Washington.
By Vivek Mishra
Published : November 25, 2025 at 7:05 AM IST
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) visit to Washington comes at a pivotal moment for both the region and the United States. For years, the US–Saudi partnership -- rooted historically in oil, security, and mutual convenience -- has appeared uneasy.
President Joe Biden’s earlier vow to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over human-rights concerns, followed by a cold, awkward visit to Jeddah, symbolised the lowest point in bilateral ties in decades. The Democratic administration’s emphasis on human rights had recalibrated the relationship into a values-based framework that Riyadh neither accepted nor saw as sustainable.
Yet, MBS’s worldview has always been more transactional, pragmatic, and future-oriented. His ambitions for Vision 2030, megaprojects like NEOM, and a rising profile for Saudi Arabia in geopolitics demand predictable partnerships and deep economic cooperation. These conditions align far more comfortably with Donald Trump’s approach.
Trump’s return to the White House has therefore created an opening for Riyadh to rebuild, reset, and recast its ties with Washington on terms that better suit both sides.
Trump’s Middle East Agenda
The backdrop to the visit is Trump’s renewed focus on reshaping the Middle East through two parallel bets in the region.
First, there is a post-Gaza regional order, rooted in conflict management and reconstruction; and second, a revived connectivity and normalisation agenda, building on the Abraham Accords from his first term.
The visit by MBS also coincides with Trump’s broader ambition to lower regional temperatures while simultaneously pushing warring parties into backchannel negotiations. The frequent presence of his envoys like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Gulf capitals has signalled both diplomatic hyperactivity and a desire to reclaim Washington’s lost influence.
But these efforts face formidable headwinds. The most significant remains Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resistance to any meaningful Palestinian statehood, which continues to frustrate the White House’s efforts to build a post-war Gaza framework. Trump’s aspiration for a Gaza reconstruction plan, where the US hopes to be front and centre, remains hostage to Israel’s internal politics and shredded consensus after the October 7 attacks.
Nonetheless, the Trump administration has recently scored a diplomatic breakthrough at the United Nations, where a resolution endorsing a Board of Peace chaired symbolically by Trump signals Washington’s revived appetite for global leadership. Much now depends on whether the US can convert this symbolic leverage into real movement on the ground.
Decoupling the Saudi–Israel Normalisation
One of Trump’s central strategic calculations has been to de-hyphenate US–Saudi normalisation from Saudi-Israel normalisation. For much of the last decade, Washington treated these two tracks as inseparable: better American ties with Riyadh would come only if
Saudi Arabia normalised relations with Israel. But Riyadh’s calculus has shifted. The MBS visit to Washington made clear that normalisation with Israel remains a bridge too far. While the Saudi leadership privately recognises the strategic benefits of normalising with Israel, public opinion is overwhelmingly opposed, especially post-Gaza. Instead, the kingdom is prioritising a direct reset with Washington first, without the baggage of Israeli domestic
politics. Trump has accepted this reality and appears ready to deepen ties with Riyadh, irrespective of progress on the Israel track. The lavish, almost unprecedented welcome accorded to MBS in Washington reflected precisely this shift: the United States is signalling a new Middle East policy anchored not in values or conditionality, but in influence, investment, technology, and strategic competition with China.
New Pillars of US–Saudi Relations
The US-Saudi partnership is now being rebuilt on three major pillars: economic leverage, defence cooperation and emerging tech partnership.
On the back of sovereign funds like the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia carries unmatched spending power. Trump, whose foreign policy is guided heavily by economic diplomacy, sees Riyadh as a central node in his plan to attract foreign capital into the US economy. MBS, in turn, is eager to invest in American tech, infrastructure, energy and defence to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economic base. The prospect of Saudi investments reaching a ‘trillion dollars’ over the next few decades is now part of Washington’s strategic imagination.
A major agenda item during MBS’s visit was the proposed sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia - a subject Israel has traditionally opposed due to concerns over maintaining its qualitative military edge. Riyadh, however, views advanced US military technology as essential to its long-term security needs, particularly after Israel’s controversial strike on Doha and Iran-backed militias testing Saudi deterrence across the region. Any F-35 deal will fundamentally reshape the regional balance of power.
The Middle East is rapidly becoming a global hub for AI, cloud computing, chip manufacturing, and data infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are aggressively positioning themselves as the next global tech centres, and Washington is keen to ensure that this transformation happens with American technology and not Chinese. For the US, keeping the Chinese AI ecosystems out of the Gulf has become a strategic priority. Access to US high-end chips, cloud architecture, and AI research partnerships could turn the Gulf into the world’s next major innovation corridor.
At a deeper level, the recalibration underway is part of Washington’s broader effort to counter China’s expanding footprint in the region, from digital infrastructure and surveillance technologies to Belt and Road connectivity. Unlike during the Obama and Biden years, when Washington signalled retreat, Trump’s return marks a re-entry into Middle Eastern geopolitics. For the first time in over a decade, the US is treating the Middle East not merely as an energy or counterterrorism theatre, but as a technology, capital, and geopolitics battleground. Saudi Arabia stands at the heart of this reimagined regional strategy.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
