Prepare Now For Heat, Water And Crop Risk

Andhra Pradesh and Telangana may be heading into a season where heat, lightning, water stress and crop risk intensify together. But we can prepare now. The India Meteorological Department’s first-stage forecast says the 2026 southwest monsoon is most likely to be below normal at 92 per cent of the long-period average, with El Niño development during the season being a key reason for concern.

In our region, a delayed or weaker monsoon does not just mean less rain. It can also mean a longer spell of heat and humidity before the rains set in, more uncertainty for sowing, and rising stress on water, crops and health. The first people to feel this are farmers and agricultural workers. June is not a waiting room between summer and monsoon. It is when fields are prepared, seeds are readied, borewells are watched anxiously, and livelihoods depend on timely rain.

Representational Image (Getty Images)

If the monsoon is delayed, many workers remain outdoors through a longer spell of intense heat and humidity. That exposure itself is a health risk. The heat risk is already there. In Andhra Pradesh, APSDMA has alerted that temperatures crossed 40°C in 200 mandals, with 44.7°C in Kadapa district, 44.3°C in Nellore district, and 44.2°C in Tirupati district. Rayalaseema is already under heatwave warning. In Telangana too, temperatures have reached 44.4°C in Jagtial and around 44.3°C in Adilabad, Mancherial, Nalgonda, and Nizamabad.

Heat in our region does not arrive alone. As humidity builds before the monsoon and the atmosphere turns unstable, thunderstorms become more frequent. Telangana is already seeing thunderstorm, lightning, and gusty-wind warnings even as the heat remains high. Coastal Andhra is also swinging between hot, humid weather and thunderstorm risk, while Rayalaseema stays under heatwave alert.

Thermometer at agricultural field with dry soil and small plants (Getty Images)

That is why lightning must be taken far more seriously. The same farmers waiting for rain, working in open fields, or taking shelter under a lone tree can suddenly become vulnerable to lightning. Nationally, lightning caused 2,560 deaths in 2023, making it one of India’s biggest weather killers. Andhra Pradesh recorded 99 lightning deaths that year, the highest among the southern states, while Telangana recorded 47.

This is the sequence we should prepare for now. A developing El Niño raises the risk of a delayed or weaker monsoon. That stretches the heat deeper into June. Outdoor workers remain exposed just when labour demand is high. The same pre-monsoon transition can also bring thunderstorms and lightning, adding another fatal risk in the fields. And if rainfall then turns patchy or inadequate, the next blow is water stress, followed by sowing disruption and crop loss.

Reservoir levels are already a warning sign. Mid-April reporting put Srisailam at 15.62 per cent of gross capacity and Nagarjunasagar at 47.14 per cent. The water levels of these reservoirs matter for irrigation, drinking water planning, and power management if the monsoon stumbles. A weak or delayed monsoon does not stop at the farm gate. It can tighten water access in towns and villages, unsettle crop decisions, and later show up in food prices and rural incomes.

Representational Image (Getty Images)

This is why both states must shift from response to preparedness. We already know enough to act. IMD issues heatwave warnings, district-level alerts, and thunderstorm and lightning forecasts. APSDMA and state systems are active. But the last mile is still weak. Too often, water is arranged after distress becomes visible. Crop advisories arrive after sowing windows are missed. Lightning awareness rises only after deaths are reported.

Preparedness now should be practical. Farmers and labourers need altered work hours, shaded rest points, drinking water access, and stronger public messaging on heat illness. Every village needs repeated lightning safety campaigns before the thunderstorm season peaks. Agricultural departments should issue contingency advisories on sowing windows, crop choice, and irrigation planning if rains delay. Water managers should already be reviewing reservoir operations, groundwater status, and drinking water plans for vulnerable mandals.

A warming climate is turning the pre-monsoon and monsoon transition in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana into a season where heat, lightning, water stress, and crop risk intensify together. The question is no longer whether we can forecast enough to prepare. The question is whether our institutions are willing to act before losses begin.

Close-up of children holding a planet at the beach (Getty Images)

We are at that moment to prepare for longer heat, more lightning danger, tighter water conditions, and crop stress. Responding only after these risks begin to unfold is not management. It is failure by delay.

Roxy Mathew Koll is a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and a lead author of recent IPCC reports.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)