Heat Waves, Super El Niño: Indian Farmers Need To Be Ready For Summer 2026
The best potential way out of the problem is to abandon monoculture cropping and aim for climate resilient drought tolerant heirloom or native varieties.
Published : March 19, 2026 at 7:59 AM IST
With the IMD already warning of severe heat waves, India is definitely getting hotter. Many parts of the country are reporting unusually high temperatures for March. Delhi reported its hottest day in 50 years. Mumbai was no different and reported very high temperatures. From the hills in Una, Himachal Pradesh, to parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, all are reporting unusually high temperatures. So what does it mean for our farmers and critical crops, such as wheat, which are due for harvest and horticulture crops like mango?
Before we answer this, let's go deeper into the heat wave by looking at other parts of the country. Goa, Maharashtra, Telangana, Gujarat, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and even Kashmir are reporting unusually hot March. Various state governments have also announced compensations fro heat strokes related deaths.
For Himalayan states, the predicament is very grave, because despite heavy rainfall last year, the Himalayan region is reported to have very little winter snow and almost a “snow drought”, which potentially threatens the water availability and temperature regulation for the mountain ecosystem. Less snow means the bare mountain top is now absorbing the heat and not reflecting it. This is making the mountains hotter, and reports are already pointing towards increased risk of forest fires, drought-like conditions, and increased temperatures, not only in the Himalayan region but also in the North East states and Western Ghats.
But these are not the total of all our troubles. Experts and reports are pointing towards a deadly Super El Niño affect by the summer of 2026, which could generate huge weather and climatic irregularities in the Kharif and disrupt the monsoon patterns in India. India could very well see a weak monsoon and a prolonged summer with climatic disturbances.
In the last five years, India has been badly bruised by the vagaries of the weather. It has led to major disruptions from cloud bursts to massive cyclones and various extreme temperature events, leading to increased heat stroke deaths in the country.
If we compare the patterns of weather, due to aggressive deforestation in the last decade, the micro-climate and the ecosystem's resilience have also been compromised. Rainfall patterns have been the first victims of this devastation. India in the last three years also saw its driest August and one of its driest Octobers. So, judging from the data, we can safely conclude that India is experiencing a transition phase in its weather and seasons.
So what does it mean for our agriculture? First, for the wheat crop, not all is rosy, especially in the northern areas. Due to rain-filled kharif 2025 (July to October season), farmers planted rice even quite late in the season, due to which the Rabi sowing of wheat was delayed. The fertiliser shortages also had their role to play, but mainly, many farmers planted the wheat later than usual. So, as a result, the wheat crop is still many weeks away from harvest, and the temperatures across the country are drastically rising. Reports already are pointing to farmers' protests for relief due to heat stress, the wheat crop is shriveling and in some cases, the grain is turning violet.
The high heat has also made the un-harvested wheat crops in Punjab, Haryana, UP, etc more vulnerable to pest attacks.
If we turn to horticulture, Apple farmers in the Kashmir region are already reporting heatwave damage. There is a premature bud breaking in Apple trees in the valley. Himachal is no better and farmers are scared, as the Himachali apple has not received the required “chill” time essential for its healthy fruiting and increased heat waves in the Himalayan regions are shrinking water and stressing the trees.
Down in the plains, due to heat, we see early flowering of mango trees, which is welcomed, but due to excessive heat, there is light rain expected in many parts of the country, which could potentially come with fast winds and hail in northern hilly regions. The rain will not only reduce the atmospheric pressure buildup in the hinterlands, delaying and dampening our monsoon, but also damage the flowering mango trees. As the fruiting is early, the rains could be detrimental to the mango this season.
Overall, the weather situation doesn’t look bright. It portends a warmer summer and dry monsoon. Farmers sowing in-between season of Zaid, will be forced to irrigate excessively and should also be prepared to face extreme temperatures. The best potential way out of the problem is to abandon monoculture cropping and aim for climate resilient drought tolerant heirloom or native varieties. They should go for multi-cropping and also plant crops in a phased manner so as to climate-proof themselves, because it doesn’t look like the weather is on our side this year.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
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