Analysis | Implications Of Joint Defence Pact Between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye And Pakistan

The signing of the joint defence agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, is a very significant development in regional and global geopolitical equations.

A nuclear power, a NATO member and an oil-rich, wealthy Gulf nation in West and South Asia have joined forces, and that too with a NATO-style clause that an attack on any of the signatories would be considered as an attack on all of them. This is an expanded version of the security pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed in September 2025, and it is unique.

It comprises Pakistan, a nuclear power which can provide deterrence. Türkiye can provide military equipment and technology, and Saudi Arabia, with its deep pockets, can fund this security architecture.

The contradictions in the security arrangement

The moot question is whether such a security arrangement among countries from different regions can guarantee peace and security in the region?

A contradiction within the grouping is that Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have been competing with each other and have been aspiring to be the leader of the Islamic World or Umma.

Saudi Arabia, being the custodian of the holiest places of Islam, and Türkiye, not willing to shed its ‘Ottoman Empire legacy ', have both been at the forefront of safeguarding issues related to Islam.

Of course, Pakistan and Türkiye have close relations for various reasons, and Türkiye has continued to support Pakistan on its stance on Jammu & Kashmir. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has raised the Kashmir issue and urged a peaceful resolution at platforms like the United Nations General Assembly.

Türkiye actively supported Pakistan with supplies of drones and other defence equipment during Operation Sindoor. It's a strange combination of powers, and it is likely that Pakistan actively followed up the idea, borne out of the ongoing war in the region.

The clear beneficiary of this defence pact would be Pakistan, as it was working hard to prevent an Operation Sindoor-type attack.
Since the composition of this grouping goes beyond one region, it immediately puts the efficacy of such an agreement in question.
It's widely perceived in the region that the US failed to guarantee the security of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia during the ongoing Iran conflict.

This is the main reason behind Saudi Arabia's pursuit of such an arrangement, as it couldn’t count entirely on Washington’s deterrence capabilities as Iran launched attacks on countries in the region to put pressure on the US. Among the many dangers was the threat to desalination plants, which are critical infrastructure for countries in the region.

Still, the signatories preemptively clarified that it's not a collective force against any one country, even though it’s a known fact that all three countries are against Israel and its policies in the region. Such a clarification was needed, as otherwise the pact would not have been supported by the US.

US President Donald Trump welcomed the Mecca defence accord, hailing it as a major step towards self-reliance and regional security.

How countries in the region view the pact

For Israel, the agreement leads to the inevitable delay in formal normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia, and signals internal divisions within the Gulf region, which is to its strategic advantage.

While the defence agreement is obviously a strategic threat, Tel Aviv can reconcile it as the US has leverage over Saudi Arabia.

Iran views it as no direct threat and a sign of dwindling confidence of regional countries in US security guarantees. Some Iranian leaders opined that the pact is as good as the security cover provided by the US to Saudi Arabia.

Amid all this, the changing equations between the two powerful Gulf nations of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cannot be ignored.
During this war, the UAE has pursued its own policy, including its decision to come out of OPEC even as it has managed its relations with Iran.

There were reports in the media that a high-level UAE delegation visited Tehran in the midst of the war and accepted some demands of Iran to prevent any further attacks which would damage its ecosystem for tourism and investments. It could be seen that in the latter part of the war, the attacks were more on other countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain and to an extent on Qatar.

The UAE economy, which has been flourishing due to tourism, investments from the West and re-export businesses, depends on peace and security.

According to some reports, the close relations between Crown Prince and Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed have suffered in recent times. This could be a reason for the UAE not joining such a security agreement in the region.
Of course, the UAE signed the Abraham Accords while Saudi has not due to its stance on establishing a Palestinian state.
It’s a question one has to ponder: Why has the UAE not gone for a formal security agreement, as its security is also at stake and it depends solely on US security guarantees.

It may be noted that it is more vulnerable to attacks from Iran, being the nearest as compared to Saudi Arabia and has territorial disputes on the Tunb islands with Iran.

Implications for India

The security pact certainly has implications for India as Pakistan is involved. India has close relations with Saudi Arabia, while Pakistan is a rival. India's relations with Türkiye have not been so friendly, due to the stance on northern Cyprus and Ankara's support to Islamabad.
The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson rightly said that India is watching and studying the agreement closely as it impacts India's security domain.
A key question is whether this agreement will act as a deterrent to Pakistan’s misdeeds. In the recent past, during the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, there has been no overt support from Saudi Arabia even though they signed the security pact last year.

This pact also shows how Pakistan has successfully revived close security ties with Saudi Arabia, and this might pay financial dividends to fix economic troubles. The quick rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye came as a surprise to many.

What next?

This agreement has the potential to attract more countries, taking it closer to the idea of an Islamic NATO.
Bangladesh has expressed an interest in joining.

The pact may not be used against India’s interests, but Pakistan may use it as a deterrent. India's good relations with Saudi Arabia may not permit Pakistan to go for any misadventures or take shelter under this pact.

There is a possibility that the UAE may lead or join another group of like-minded countries in the region and beyond. India and the UAE have close relations and are part of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a planned multi-modal trade and infrastructure network, and I2U2, a strategic economic cooperation group consisting of India, Israel, the United States and the UAE.

Of course, the progress of IMEC is in a dilemma after this agreement, as Saudi Arabia is part of it and its participation is critical.
Overall, the agreement per se may not provide security to Saudi Arabia, which was evident from the Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers two days after the agreement was signed.

But what it does show is that the region is shifting away from a US-led security order that has been in place for over five decades.

(The writer is a former Ambassador of India and served at the Ministry of External Affairs as the Head of Gulf Division)

(The facts and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)