Elections, Exiles And Minority Fears: Why Bangladesh’s 2026 Vote Matters For India
Bangladesh’s 2026 parliamentary elections will shape India’s eastern security as Tarique Rahman returns, Awami League is barred, and minority violence tests Dhaka’s democratic future.
Published : December 26, 2025 at 8:46 PM IST
|Updated : December 26, 2025 at 10:26 PM IST
New Delhi: Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections scheduled for February 2026 have become one of the most consequential political events in South Asia for India, as Dhaka navigates a dramatic political reset marked by the return of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman after 17 years of self-imposed exile in London, the exclusion of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League from the polls, and rising anxiety over minority safety.
With New Delhi publicly calling for “free, fair and inclusive” elections, the outcome will determine not just who governs Bangladesh, but how stable and predictable India’s most important eastern neighbour will remain.
“We are all aware of the recent developments in Bangladesh,” External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said while addressing a weekly media briefing here on Friday.
“We have been closely following them. As far as law-and-order situation is concerned, I have been apprising you from time to time as to what our position has been and should be. The unremitting hostilities against minorities in Bangladesh, including Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists, at the hands of extremists is a matter of great concern. We condemn the recent gruesome killing of a Hindu youth in Mymensingh and expect that the perpetrators of the crime will be brought to justice.”
Jaiswal pointed out to the fact that over 2,900 incidents of violence against minorities, including cases of killings, arsons and land grab have been documented by independent sources during the tenure of the interim government.
“These incidents cannot be brushed aside as mere media exaggerations or dismissed as political violence,” he said.
As far as the return of Tarique Rahman is concerned, Jaiswal said that India supports free, fair and inclusive elections in Bangladesh.
“This development should be seen in that context,” Jaiswal said.
He further stated that India’s point on Bangladesh has been clear and consistent throughout.
“India stands for strengthening our ties with the people of Bangladesh,” the spokesperson stated. “We favour peace and stability in Bangladesh. We stand for free, fair, inclusive and participatory elections which have to be held in a peaceful atmosphere.”
Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections scheduled for February 2026 are shaping up to be one of the most consequential political events in South Asia in recent years – not just for Bangladesh, but for India as well. The combination of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s dramatic ouster in August 2024, the subsequent banning of her Awami League from contesting the election, and the return of Tarique Rahman after 17 years in exile has created a political reset in Dhaka that New Delhi cannot afford to ignore.
For nearly 15 years, India’s Bangladesh policy revolved around Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League. Under Hasina, Dhaka cracked down on anti-India insurgent groups, deepened security cooperation, supported regional connectivity projects, and maintained a broadly secular political orientation. Few neighbours gave India the kind of strategic comfort that Bangladesh did during this period.
That certainty collapsed with Hasina’s fall in August 2024. Her departure left a vacuum that has yet to be filled by a stable political consensus. The subsequent decision to bar the Awami League from contesting the 2026 elections has further polarised Bangladeshi politics and raised serious questions about electoral legitimacy.
For India, the fear is not just about who wins, but about how they win. A government that emerges from a widely questioned or exclusionary election risks lacking domestic legitimacy – making it more vulnerable to street politics, military influence, or external manipulation, including by China or Islamist forces.
Tarique Rahman’s return after 17 years in exile has dramatically altered the electoral landscape. Long regarded as the de facto leader of the BNP, Rahman is widely seen as the frontrunner to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister if the party wins.
In New Delhi, Rahman was once viewed with deep suspicion. During the BNP–Jamaat-e-Islami government of 2001–2006 under the prime ministership of his mother Khaleda Zia, anti-India insurgent groups operated freely from Bangladeshi soil, and bilateral ties deteriorated sharply. That historical baggage still looms large in Indian strategic thinking.
However, Rahman’s more recent messaging has been markedly different. He has signalled support for secularism, stability, and improved relations with India – a shift that New Delhi is quietly taking note of. For India, this opens the possibility of working with a post-Hasina Bangladesh that is not hostile to its core interests, provided Rahman translates rhetoric into policy.
“It is time for us all to build the country together,” Rahman said after reaching Dhaka on Thursday. “In this country, there are people from the hills, plains, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Christians. We want to build a safe Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, no matter who a woman, man or child is, they should be able to leave their homes safely and return safely.”
According to Bangladesh-based researcher and journalist Shahadat Shadhin, if Rahman comes to power, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka are going to be better than what it is now under the current interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.
“An expert group is working on BNP’s foreign policy under Tarique Rahman,” Shadhin told ETV Bharat over phone from Dhaka. “I am hopeful of better India-Bangladesh relations because Tarique Rahman has been attracting academics. He is meeting with South Asian experts. I think he will be practical and follow realpolitik.”
An Indian expert on the politics and economy of Bangladesh concurred with Shadhin.
“Yes, India-Bangladesh relations will improve if Tarique Rahman comes to power,” the expert told ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity. “He wants to bring peace, stability and prosperity to Bangladesh. Without India’s support, that will not be possible.”
The expert further stated that the world has changed since the time when Rahman’s mother Khaleda Zia was the Prime Minister.
Then comes the question of the ban on the Awami League from participating in the elections.
“If you see the electoral map of Bangladesh, the Awami League is still popular in various places,” Shadhin said. “If Awami League candidates stand as independents, they may win from some places.”
According to the Indian expert quoted above, many Awami League members have shifted to other parties, including the BNP.
“It remains to be seen whether they can actually file their nominations,” the expert said.
Ultimately, the February 2026 elections will determine whether Bangladesh enters a phase of stable democratic transition or slides into prolonged political turbulence. For India, this is not just about personalities like Tarique Rahman or Sheikh Hasina, but about whether Dhaka remains a reliable, secular, and strategically aligned neighbour. That is why, as Bangladesh heads to the polls, New Delhi is watching more closely than ever – not just to see who wins, but to see whether democracy itself holds.
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