Trivedi Signals Scope For India-Bangladesh Reset, Ganges Treaty Renewal In Focus

New Delhi: India and Bangladesh are approaching a potentially consequential moment in their bilateral relationship, with the proposed visit of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to India coinciding with negotiations over the future of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty.

Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi’s optimistic assessment of the relationship and his assurance that outstanding issues can be resolved suggest that New Delhi wants to use renewed political engagement to create momentum on difficult questions.

Speaking to the media on Wednesday evening after separate courtesy meetings with Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trivedi said discussions covered a range of issues and were held in a positive atmosphere.

“Once Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to India is confirmed and the joint working group sits down with the necessary documents, everything will move in a positive direction,” the Dhaka Tribune news website quoted Trivedi as saying.

On the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty between the two countries that is set to expire in December this year, he said the joint working group of the two countries was already discussing the matter.

“I hope they will meet soon,” the High Commissioner said.

“There is no issue that cannot be resolved. Whatever is necessary in the interests of the people of both countries will be done.”

Trivedi’s meetings with Foreign Minister Rahman and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Islam, and his description of the discussions as positive, indicate that diplomatic channels between New Delhi and Dhaka are becoming more functional after a period of considerable strain.

Since the political transition in Bangladesh following the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka experienced a period of uncertainty.

India’s concerns over the direction of the new government that assumed power in February this year and Bangladesh’s concerns over India’s handling of migration and border issues created friction.

However, several developments this year have indicated efforts by both sides to rebuild confidence.

The proposed visit of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to India could become an important political milestone in this process.

India has already invited Rahman to attend the BRICS Summit in New Delhi in September, an invitation that could provide an opportunity for direct engagement between the two governments at the highest level.

For New Delhi, the importance of such a visit would go beyond protocol.

It could provide the political space necessary to discuss a range of sensitive issues simultaneously - water sharing, border management, security cooperation, trade, connectivity, energy, visas and people-to-people ties.

Rather than allowing individual disputes to dominate the relationship, both sides could begin rebuilding a broader framework of cooperation.

The most consequential element of Trivedi’s statement is his reference to the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty.

Signed on December 12, 1996, the treaty governs the sharing of Ganges waters at Farakka during the lean season from January 1 to May 31. It has a 30-year validity and is due to expire in December 2026. The treaty’s renewal is, therefore, not merely a technical matter; it has become a major test of the political relationship between India and Bangladesh.

The treaty’s future has particular significance for Bangladesh because the Ganges is crucial to agriculture, fisheries, navigation and the livelihoods of communities in the country's southwest.

For India, the issue involves not only its obligations to Bangladesh but also the interests of the states through which the river system flows, particularly West Bengal.

This makes the negotiations politically and hydrologically complex.

Trivedi’s assertion that “there is no issue that cannot be resolved” is diplomatically noteworthy.

It conveys an approach in which the Ganges treaty is being treated as a negotiable bilateral challenge rather than as an issue that could become a source of confrontation.

His statement that “whatever is necessary in the interests of the people of both countries will be done” also provides room for both sides to present the eventual outcome domestically as a mutually beneficial arrangement. That is important because water-sharing negotiations are highly sensitive in both countries.

According to Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading commentator on transboundary water issues, the High Commissioner’s comment on the renewal of the Ganges Waters Treaty bodes well for ties between the two countries.

“Trivedi is not a career diplomat,” Sinha told ETV Bharat. “He has been given the rank of a cabinet minister after being appointed as High Commissioner to Bangladesh.”

He said that both India and Bangladesh are treating the Ganges Waters Treaty not as a crisis but as an opportunity.

“The technical committee between the two sides are met in March and May this year,” Sinha elaborated. “Regular meetings are happening. These are technical experts like hydrologists and civil engineers who are part of the Central Water Commission and they’re assessing the whole situation.”

He said that it is not just about the renewal of the treaty but renewing it under a new framework.

“The treaty was signed in 1996,” he said.

“In the last 30 years, we’ve seen the impacts of climate change and there’s been the changing dynamics of the river. There’s been rising water demand on both the sides and there’s been a great number of ecological concerns because these are very sensitive areas.”

Basically, the central challenge for the next treaty will be that the hydrological conditions of 2026 are not necessarily the same as those prevailing in 1996.

This means that the negotiations could increasingly move beyond the narrow question of dividing available water at Farakka. The two sides may have to consider a broader approach involving basin-level management, data sharing, conservation, flood management, river restoration and the possibility of increasing dry-season flows.

Sinha expressed the view that by giving positive signals about the renewal of the Ganges Waters Treaty, Trivedi has built up a new confidence in bilateral ties between India and Bangladesh.

For the new government in Dhaka, the Ganges treaty is likely to be an important measure of the quality of its relationship with New Delhi.

The issue has acquired additional political salience because the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government wants to demonstrate that it can secure Bangladesh’s interests while maintaining constructive relations with India.

The treaty could, therefore, become a confidence-building instrument. If New Delhi and Dhaka can reach an understanding before the existing agreement expires, it would demonstrate that the two countries can resolve difficult issues through negotiation despite political changes.

A successful Ganges treaty renewal could have a value extending beyond the water issue. It could reinforce the credibility of India’s Neighbourhood First policy and demonstrate that New Delhi is capable of managing difficult disputes with its neighbours through sustained institutional dialogue.

This is where Trivedi’s reference to Tarique Rahman’s proposed India visit becomes particularly important. A high-level political meeting could provide the broader framework within which technical negotiations on the Ganges treaty are pursued.

The next few months will be crucial. The immediate objective should be to ensure that the Ganges treaty does not become a deadline-driven crisis. Both sides will need to intensify negotiations, exchange reliable hydrological data and identify areas where the existing framework can be modernised.

In strategic terms, the significance of Trivedi’s statement lies in its timing: with the Ganges treaty set to expire in December 2026 and a new political leadership in Dhaka seeking to establish its relationship with New Delhi, India appears to be signalling that it is ready for substantive engagement.