South Asia's New Political Order: What It Means For India's Neighbourhood First Policy

New Delhi: A wave of political upheavals across South Asia over the past four years has brought a new generation of leaders to power in countries central to India's regional diplomacy.

The protest-driven rise of National People’s Power alliance’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Sri Lanka, the political transition in Bangladesh that saw Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) assume office after the ouster of the Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister, and the emergence of Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party as Prime Minister-elect of Nepal this week following a youth-led uprising signal a broader transformation in South Asian politics.

These recent political transitions in South Asia share a common thread: they were all driven by large-scale public dissatisfaction with governance and economic management.

In Sri Lanka, the economic collapse in 2022 triggered the Aragalaya Revolution, a nationwide protest movement that ultimately reshaped the country’s political landscape. The movement reflected deep public anger over corruption, economic mismanagement and declining living standards. The political fallout eventually led to the rise of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President in 2024, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s leadership.

Bangladesh experienced a similar moment of political upheaval when student-led protests over job quotas escalated into a broader mass movement that forced the exit of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. The subsequent elections brought Tarique Rahman to power in February this year, ending an era that had defined Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policy for over a decade.

And now, Nepal's political transition represents perhaps the most striking generational shift. In September 2025, a youth-led movement driven largely by Gen Z activists brought down the ruling coalition government. The political momentum generated by this uprising has now propelled engineer-rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah to the position of Prime Minister-elect, signalling the rise of a new political generation in Kathmandu.

Together, these developments suggest that South Asia is entering a period of political fluidity where governments are more vulnerable to public mobilisation and leadership changes may become more frequent.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman Tarique Rahman takes oath as prime minister during a swearing-in ceremony at the National Parliament building in Dhaka on February 17, 2026. (AP)

For India, these developments are poised to test the resilience and adaptability of its Neighbourhood First Policy, which seeks to prioritise stable and cooperative relations with immediate neighbours.

New Delhi's Neighbourhood First Policy has been built on the principle of strengthening political trust, expanding economic cooperation and improving regional connectivity. However, the emergence of new leadership may alter the diplomatic equations that India has long relied upon.

India enjoyed particularly strong ties with Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, marked by cooperation on security, connectivity and economic integration. The arrival of a new political leadership in Dhaka could introduce uncertainties in the relationship in these initial days, especially if domestic political pressures push the government to recalibrate foreign policy priorities.

In Sri Lanka, India played a crucial role in supporting the country during its economic crisis through financial assistance and humanitarian aid. New Delhi played its cards well in dealing with Colombo by hosting Dissanayake on his first state visit to a foreign country after assuming office. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also went on a state visit to the Indian Ocean island nation in April last year. And, then again, when in late 2025 Cyclone Ditwah caused severe damage along Sri Lanka’s eastern coast, India mobilised a swift humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) response.

Nepal, meanwhile, has historically had a complex relationship with India, shaped by geography, trade interdependence and periodic political tensions. The emergence of a new generation of leaders in Kathmandu could redefine how the country approaches its foreign policy choices.

One of the key strategic concerns for India will be the growing influence of China in South Asia. Over the past decade, Beijing has expanded its presence across the region through infrastructure projects, financial assistance and strategic partnerships linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.

Political transitions often create openings for external powers to deepen engagement with new governments. China has been adept at leveraging such moments to strengthen economic and strategic ties.

For India, maintaining its position as a trusted development partner in the region will therefore be critical. This will require not only diplomatic engagement but also the timely delivery of infrastructure projects, investments and connectivity initiatives that benefit neighbouring economies.

However, what has emerged as the biggest challenge for the new governments in South Asia is the war in West Asia.

"At the time of elections in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, nobody thought about the war that was launched by the US and Israel against Iran," former Indian diplomat Amit Dasgupta, who served at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Secretariat in Kathmandu as Director Economic and Trade and as Special Assistant to the Secretary General, told ETV Bharat. "Governance is not easy at a time of extreme global turbulence."

Dasgupta said that West Asia was a source of remittances for South Asian countries.

"Workers from South Asia are now being repatriated," he said. "Oil prices will be jumping through the roof. Without energy, how do you run the machinery? When these new governments were elected, they promised a better life for the people. But they are now faced with a very difficult situation. I will be extremely sympathetic to these newly elected governments."

Coming to India’s Neighbourhood First Policy, Dasgupta said that South Asian countries will have to take a collective decision on how to face the challenge after the war broke out in West Asia. "Some economies are more fragile than others,” he said. “Such economies will need a lot of hand-holding."

Stating that the Neighbourhood First Policy does not mean that India imposes itself on countries, Dasgupta, however, expressed the view that New Delhi has to recognise that it is faced with a massive challenge.

"The neighbourhood is extremely important for India’s foreign policy," he said. "But, at the same time, we should know our limitations."

Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae said that there is a new aspirational youth in India’s neighbourhood.

"Youth should be the core focus of our foreign policy," Rae said. "Economy forms a major dimension in this."

Taken together, South Asia is entering a period of political transformation that could redefine the region’s strategic landscape. As new leaders take charge in Colombo, Dhaka, and Kathmandu, India’s diplomatic agility will be put to the test. The success of the Neighbourhood First Policy will depend on New Delhi’s ability to adapt to changing global political realities while continuing to offer tangible economic and developmental benefits to its neighbours.

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