Sheikh Hasina's Bid To Return To Bangladesh In December Seen As A Political Move To Revive Awami League

New Delhi: Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's plan to return to her country despite the possibility of arrest reflects a complex political calculation.

It is aimed at challenging the legal proceedings against her, reviving the Awami League’s political fortunes and reasserting her place in Bangladesh’s deeply polarised political landscape, said analysts.

Addressing a media briefing organised by the Foreign Correspondents Club of South Asia in New Delhi virtually on Wednesday, Hasina reiterated her desire to return to Bangladesh in December. She maintained she cannot stay away from her people who are facing many difficulties.

“Whatever fate awaits me, I will return to my people. I cannot stay away while my beloved countrymen are suffering… I want to go back in the month of December. I give the exact date when the time comes,” she said.

She said that the ban on her party, the Awami League, should be lifted, political prisoners released and media freedom restored.

Hasina fled to India on August 5, 2024, after a student-led mass uprising forced her government from power. Since then, Bangladesh has undergone a dramatic political transformation.

The Awami League has been banned, numerous criminal cases have been filed against its leaders, and Hasina herself has been convicted in absentia in cases linked to the 2024 crackdown, a verdict she rejects as politically motivated. Bangladesh has also sought her extradition from India.

According to Bangladesh-based journalist Saifur Rahman Tapan, Hasina’s intention to return to Bangladesh is essentially a move to challenge her political opponents.

“One cannot say for sure that she will be able to return within the timeframe she has declared,” Tapan told ETV Bharat over the phone from Dhaka. “But it will reap her political dividends for sure.”

At the same time, he said that without the current government’s help, Hasina cannot return to Bangladesh.

“On the other hand, our government is facing some pressure from a section of people who were involved in the July 2024 uprising to bring her back home and make her face punishment,” Tapan said. “In such a situation, the government is in a dilemma.”

Last month, Hasina had announced that she intends to return to Bangladesh in December despite the risk of arrest and even the possibility of facing the death penalty.

The most immediate reason appeared to be Hasina’s own declaration that she wants to contest the cases against her in person rather than remain indefinitely in exile.

She argued that the charges and death sentence are politically motivated and unconstitutional. Returning would allow her to directly challenge the judicial process instead of allowing judgments in absentia to stand uncontested.

Hasina has urged other exiled party members, including former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal who also faces a death sentence, to join her.

Since 2024, the Awami League has been banned, many senior leaders have been arrested or gone into exile, party properties have been seized or attacked, and its organisational structure has largely collapsed inside Bangladesh.

A physical return by Hasina could become the rallying point for loyalists and exiled leaders seeking to reorganise the party.

Critics, however, argue that such a return could further polarise Bangladesh’s politics.

Hasina has consistently maintained that she remains the legitimate political leader of Bangladesh and that her removal resulted from extraordinary political circumstances rather than an electoral defeat.

Returning would reinforce her narrative that she never accepted permanent exile and continues to regard herself as a central political actor capable of challenging the current political order.

The current government headed by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has made the July 2024 uprising central to its political legitimacy.

Recent moves - including converting the former Prime Minister’s official residence into a museum commemorating the uprising - reflect efforts to institutionalise a narrative portraying the fall of Hasina’s government as a democratic revolution.

Hasina’s return would allow her to contest that narrative directly and present her own account of the events of 2024.

The Bangladesh government has pushed for Hasina's extradition from India and has restricted Bangladesh media from broadcasting her statements.

So, the question is: can the Awami League be revived? Critics say it is not all that easy; supporters say there is a possibility.

“The Awami League’s revival is certain,” Tapan said. “But not within the declared timeframe. Before December, there may be changes in the political landscape of Bangladesh that may help revive the Awami League. Or else, it may take some more months.”