From Pipeline To Intelligence Channels: Signs Of A Reset In India–Bangladesh Ties

New Delhi: After months of uncertainty in India-Bangladesh relations, early signals suggest that New Delhi and Dhaka may be cautiously rebuilding engagement following the return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power.

With Tarique Rahman assuming office as Prime Minister in February this year, a combination of quiet intelligence exchanges and expanding energy cooperation – including diesel supplies through the Bangladesh–India Friendship Pipeline – is emerging as the foundation of a possible diplomatic thaw.

The growing role of India in Bangladesh’s fuel supply chain – especially diesel – has acquired fresh strategic significance after the change of government in Dhaka. With BNP’s Rahman assuming power, New Delhi and Dhaka are cautiously recalibrating their relationship after several months of political uncertainty following the ouster of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.

Energy cooperation has emerged as one of the most practical pillars through which both countries can stabilise ties.

Bangladesh relies heavily on diesel to run its economy. The fuel powers transport fleets, irrigation pumps in agriculture, inland waterway vessels, industrial generators and even some power plants during electricity shortages. Diesel accounts for roughly 63 per cent of Bangladesh’s total petroleum consumption, making it the backbone of the country’s fuel system.

Historically, Dhaka depended overwhelmingly on West Asian suppliers such as Kuwait for diesel imports. But over the past two decades the country diversified its sources to include Singapore, Malaysia, China and India. This diversification was partly driven by concerns about supply disruptions in the Bay of Bengal and the Strait of Hormuz and the volatility of global shipping routes.

Among these new suppliers, India has emerged as the most strategically important, even though it does not always supply the largest volume.

The key reason is infrastructure connectivity. The commissioning of the Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline in December 2022 created the first direct cross-border petroleum supply route between the two countries. The pipeline transports diesel from the Numaligarh Refinery Limited in Assam to the Parbatipur depot in northern Bangladesh.

Through this route, diesel reaches Bangladesh within about two days, far faster than maritime shipments. It reduces shipping costs and vulnerability to maritime disruptions. Recently, a shipment of 5,000 tonnes of diesel arrived in Bangladesh through this pipeline.

Muhammad Rezanur Rahman, Chairman of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), said the shipment was delivered under a long-term arrangement through which India supplies around 180,000 metric tonnes of diesel to Bangladesh each year via the cross-border pipeline. Officials noted that the delivery is particularly important at a time when global oil markets are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions disrupting shipments along major maritime routes in the wake of the West Asia conflict. The latest consignment is expected to help sustain adequate fuel stocks to support power generation, transportation and agricultural activities in northern Bangladesh.

For Bangladesh, which imports roughly 4.3 million tonnes of diesel annually, the pipeline does not replace sea-borne imports but acts as a reliable emergency buffer and strategic reserve supply channel.

India’s state-owned Indian Oil Corporation Limited remains one of the key suppliers facilitating these exports.

Relations between India and the BNP have historically been complicated. New Delhi enjoyed particularly close ties with the previous government led by the Awami League’s Hasina. During her tenure, Dhaka cooperated extensively with India on security issues, including acting against insurgent groups from India’s northeastern region that once operated from Bangladeshi territory.

With the BNP returning to power, India has been keen to ensure that pragmatic areas of cooperation – especially trade, connectivity and energy – continue unaffected.

Fuel supply cooperation fits this objective perfectly for several reasons:

Diesel shortages would quickly affect transport, agriculture and industry. Reliable imports from India help cushion supply risks. India’s northeastern refineries are geographically closer to Bangladesh than many maritime suppliers. Cross-border energy infrastructure creates mutual incentives to maintain stable political relations. Given the current maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pipeline supplies from India provide an alternative route. Thus, even if political relations fluctuate, energy interdependence acts as a stabilising factor.

Against this backdrop, a discreet security engagement earlier this month drew considerable attention in strategic circles. According to reports, Bangladesh’s newly appointed Director General of the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), Maj Gen Mohammad Kaiser Rashid Chowdhury, made a low-profile visit to New Delhi soon after taking office. During the visit he held meetings with senior Indian security officials, including Lt Gen RS Raman, Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI) of India, and Parag Jain, chief of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW)

The meetings were not publicly announced and were described by officials as routine intelligence consultations, but the timing made them politically significant.

According to Prabir De, Professor at the New Delhi-based Research and Information System for Developing Nations (RIS) think tank and an expert on the economy and politics of Bangladesh, these are very new and positive developments in India-Bangladesh bilateral ties.

“The new government in Bangladesh has rightly realised that India is a trusted all-weather friend,” De told ETV Bharat. “Whether it be the Bangladesh DGFI’s visit or the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka meeting the ministers of the new government there, these are all very positive developments in terms of bilateral relations.”

He said that India’s augmentation of diesel supply is a signal of energy support during a critical time in the eastern neighbour.

“These are step-by-step measures to improve bilateral ties,” De said.

Bangladeshi academic and political observer Sharin Shajahan Naomi said that the BNP always had a functional relationship with India, though unlike during the Awami League’s rule.

“This time, Tarique Rahman has taken up a very mature leadership role,” Naomi said over the phone from Dhaka. “It is a time of crisis in Bangladesh. They are seeking India’s support, especially because of the war in West Asia. The economy in Bangladesh is not in good shape.”

She also said that there are possibilities of mob violence in Bangladesh continuing like those that were seen during the interim government’s tenure following the ouster of Hasina.

“So, Bangladesh’s intelligence apparatus needs support from India’s intelligence agencies,” Naomi said. “India also needs the support of Bangladesh in terms of fighting terrorism and handling the situation in Myanmar and the Rohingya issue.”

She said that the interim government led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus was very unpopular among the common Bangladeshis.

“Our people here have share very good sentiments about India,” Naomi said. “They don’t have any problem with India. The top priority of the current government is support from India in terms of security.”

Taken together, the two developments - the steady expansion of fuel trade and the quiet intelligence engagement in New Delhi - suggest that India and Bangladesh may be attempting a cautious reset after the political transition in Dhaka.

While ideological differences between governments may remain, both sides appear to recognise that energy interdependence, border security cooperation, and regional stability are areas where cooperation remains mutually beneficial. These could help ensure that the political change in Bangladesh does not derail the broader trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations.

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