Gold May Touch Rs 1.5 Lakh And Silver Rs 2 Lakh By Diwali 2026: Observers

By Saurabh Shukla

New Delhi: Gold and silver have surged to record highs, with gold touching Rs 1,32,294 and silver reaching Rs 1,70,415. Market experts believe the rally may continue, predicting that gold could reach Rs 1.5 lakh and silver Rs 2 lakh by next Diwali, driven by global economic uncertainty, festive demand and safe-haven buying. However, they also caution that a post-Diwali correction of 5 to 10 per cent cannot be ruled out.

Meanwhile, Silver prices fell as much as 6% on Friday, marking the largest single-day drop in six months as precious metals retreated from their recent rally. The metal recovered slightly later in the day but was still poised to close down 4.75%.

The decline came as concerns over U.S. credit quality and China–U.S. trade tensions eased. President Donald Trump’s comments on Friday helped alleviate concerns about trade frictions, while positive results from regional banks stabilised the stock market and pushed bond yields higher. Rising interest rates typically weigh on gold and silver prices, as these metals do not generate interest income.

In the international market, silver was down 4.24%, after hitting a high of USD 54.63 before closing at USD 51.80.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India, silver posted its biggest correction since inception, tumbling by 16,715 points from the day’s high to low.

MCX Data (17 Oct 2025)

• High: 1,70,415
• Low: 1,53,700
• Close: 1,56,604

Director at Ya Wealth Global, Anuj Gupta, told ETV Bharat that gold continues to shine as a preferred safe-haven asset with strong fundamental and technical backing. Central banks are persistently accumulating gold with over 244 tonnes purchased in just the first quarter of 2025. A weakening US dollar (USD), persistent inflation and rising geopolitical tensions are further fueling the demand for gold.

Gold Silver on Technical charts

ETF (exchange-traded funds) inflows are also on the rise and showing increased investor interest that supports higher prices. Technically, gold charts reveal a strong uptrend beginning mid-2025 with frequent breakouts above resistance levels signalling sustained bullish momentum.

"The key zones remain where previous liquidity grabs occurred, reinforcing the current trend. Given these factors, gold is expected to reach around 4500 to 5000 USD per oz (ounce) levels on the international front and Rs 1,40,000 to 1,50,000 per 10 gram on the MCX near to Diwali 2026, with potential for further upside beyond these milestones," Gupta added.

Gupta believes that Silver will remain structurally tight for the fourth consecutive year, driven primarily by industrial and green energy demand. "Its growing applications in electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels continue to push demand higher amid constrained supply and low above ground inventories," he said.

From a technical perspective, he said that silver’s strong breakout in 2025 has set a powerful upward momentum, with resistance near recent highs and firm support along its uptrend line. As with gold, "key liquidity zones mark important levels for traders to watch. Silver prices may rise to around 60-70 USD per ounce internationally and Rs 1,80,000 to Rs 2,00,000 per Kg on the MCX by Diwali 2026, maintaining a bullish trajectory as industrial demand and supply constraints persist," he said.

Anuj Gupta also cautions that after Dhanteras, a 5 to 10 per cent correction in gold and silver prices is possible. However, prices may start rising again with the onset of the wedding season.

Commenting on the outlook, Navneet Damani, Head of Research Commodities and Currencies, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said that we have achieved our target for Gold on both COMEX and the domestic front at 4,000 USD and Rs 1,20,000 respectively.

While bouts of correction may emerge, "persistence above the all time highs could take prices towards 4,250–4,500 USD on COMEX and, assuming USDINR at 89, Rs 1,28,500 to 1,35,000 on the domestic front from a medium- to long-term perspective," said Damani.

Similarly, Damani added, "for silver we have achieved our domestic and COMEX target of Rs 1,50,000 and 50 USD. Sustained momentum above the all-time highs could extend this rally towards 75 USD on COMEX and Rs 2,30,000 domestically, assuming USDINR at 89, from a long-term perspective."

Where Ritual Meets Return

CEO of Prabhudas Lilladher Wealth Management, Inderbir Singh Jolly, said that this Dhanteras, gold is rewriting its role, no longer serving merely as an auspicious adornment but emerging as a core strategic asset. "Globally, spot gold breached 4,300 USD per ounce, posting its biggest weekly gain in nearly two decades. Domestically, prices have climbed to Rs 1.32 lakh per 10 grams (24K). From a financial perspective, gold is benefiting from multiple tailwinds: a weak dollar, expectations of US rate cuts, and aggressive central bank accumulation," he said.

Culturally, gold remains woven into India’s spiritual and social fabric. Long before markets existed, Indians regarded gold as a safeguard against misfortune and a conduit for divine blessings, especially on days like Dhanteras that are associated with Goddess Lakshmi and prosperity.

Inderbir Singh Jolly added, "Families across generations have passed down gold as both a gift and a legacy, an asset that transcends markets and seasons. This Dhanteras, gold bridges two worlds: it is both a prayer to tradition and a hedge for portfolios. For investors, the message is clear: buy thoughtfully, balance ritual with risk, and prioritize quality, liquidity, and portfolio allocation, not emotional impulse."

No Buying Through ETFs

According to Anuj Gupta, when investors buy gold through ETFs, the funds are physically backed, meaning that Asset Management Companies are required to purchase physical gold. However, due to a surge in demand and a resulting shortage of physical gold, procuring it has become challenging. As a result, some AMCs have temporarily stopped accepting fresh orders for gold ETFs. Once the situation stabilizes, they are expected to resume gold purchases through ETFs.

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