Seven Winters, One Worry: Where Has Kashmir’s Snow Gone Amid A 65% Rainfall Deficit?
According to the Meteorological Department data, Kashmir valley received 100.6 mm precipitation against a normal of 284.9 mm.
By ETV Bharat Jammu & Kashmir Team
Published : March 3, 2026 at 6:53 PM IST
Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit, with the core December to February period of 2025-26 ending 65 percent below normal, according to data of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar.
The region received just 100.6 millimeters of precipitation against a normal of 284.9 mm during December 2025 to February 2026, marking one of the driest winters in recent record.
The data reveal that February’s near collapse in precipitation pushed the season into one of its weakest performances in recent decades.
December 2025 began with a sharp deficit. The region recorded only 13.0 mm of precipitation against a normal of 59.4 mm, a departure of minus 78 percent.
January 2026 saw some activity from Western Disturbances, helping prevent a total seasonal collapse. The month recorded 73.4 mm against a normal of 95.1 mm, reflecting a deficit of 23 percent. However, the partial recovery was not enough to offset December’s steep shortfall.
February proved disastrous. The region received just 14.2 mm of precipitation compared with a normal of 130.4 mm, marking an 89 percent deficit.
Officials described February as “one of the driest in recent record,” noting that the sharp decline dragged the overall winter seasonal total down by 65 percent.
The latest figures confirm that every winter since 2019-20 has ended below normal in Jammu and Kashmir.
Seasonal departures over the past seven winters show a clear downward pattern: minus 20 percent in 2019-20, minus 37 percent in 2020-21, minus 8 percent in 2021-22, minus 34 percent in 2022-23, minus 54 percent in 2023-24, minus 45 percent in 2024-25, and now minus 65 percent in 2025-26.
The only winter close to normal in recent years was 2021-22 at minus 8 percent.
In contrast, earlier years recorded surplus winters. The 2016-17 season ended 29 percent above normal, 2018-19 recorded a 36 percent surplus, and 2012-13 saw a 14 percent excess.
Meteorological officials say the repeated deficits since 2019 indicate an emerging pattern rather than isolated variability.
“Seven consecutive deficient winters indicate that this is not random variability alone but a sustained shift in seasonal precipitation behavior,” a senior official at the Meteorological Centre Srinagar said. “The repeated winter shortfalls suggest increasing variability in Western Disturbance strength and frequency, greater intra-seasonal concentration of rainfall events, and longer dry spells between active phases.”
Winter precipitation is critical for the Himalayan region. Snow accumulation in higher reaches feeds rivers and springs, recharges groundwater systems, sustains irrigation for orchards and crops, and regulates early-season temperatures through snow albedo.
With December nearly dry, January subpar and February collapsing almost 90 percent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially.
Experts warn that back-to-back winter deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that the Kashmir Valley traditionally depends on during late spring, summer and autumn.
“The snowpack is essentially our natural reservoir,” said Dr Riyaz Ahmed, an expert based in Srinagar. “If winter precipitation continues to underperform at this scale, downstream river flows and groundwater recharge will be impacted, especially during peak irrigation demand.”
Apple growers and orchardists across south Kashmir have also expressed concern, saying reduced soil moisture and snow insulation could affect bloom cycles and early crop health.
The deficit was widespread across both Kashmir and Jammu divisions.
In Kashmir Division, Srinagar recorded 84.2 mm against a normal of 236.5 mm, a 64 percent shortfall. Anantnag saw a 62 percent deficit, Budgam 71 percent, Bandipora 60 percent and Baramulla 58 percent below normal.
Kulgam recorded one of the sharpest drops at 80 percent below normal, while Shopian registered an 82 percent deficit. Kupwara recorded 64 percent below normal and Pulwama 51 percent. Ganderbal fared relatively better but still remained 39 percent below normal.
In Jammu Division, Jammu district recorded a 64 percent deficit. Kathua saw a 66 percent shortfall and Ramban 62 percent below normal. Udhampur recorded 57 percent below normal and Reasi 56 percent.
Kishtwar emerged among the worst affected, with only 36.0 mm recorded against a normal of 369.9 mm, reflecting a staggering 90 percent deficit. Doda was 49 percent below normal.
Poonch recorded a comparatively lower deficit at 21 percent, while Samba was 28 percent below normal and Rajouri 41 percent.
Officials said the widespread nature of the deficit underscores the scale of the seasonal drying trend.
According to the Meteorological Centre Srinagar, the short-term forecast indicates partly cloudy conditions from March 3 to 6, with a brief spell of light snow over isolated higher reaches on March 4.
From March 7 to 9, generally cloudy conditions are expected, with light rain and snow over higher reaches at isolated to scattered places. Similar conditions are likely from March 10 to 11, followed by generally dry weather from March 12 to 14. Cloudy skies are expected again on March 15 and 16.
The department has advised farmers to continue farm operations.
It also said a further rise in day temperatures by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius at most places is likely to continue over the next four days, followed by a fall of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius at many places thereafter.
As Jammu and Kashmir enters the spring transition period, meteorologists say close monitoring of precipitation trends will be critical.
“If this drying pattern persists in the coming years, it will require serious adaptation strategies in water management and agriculture,” the senior official said. “Winter precipitation is the backbone of our hydrological cycle. Its sustained decline cannot be ignored.”
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