Rajya Sabha Polls: Will NDA Sweep All Five Seats In Bihar, Or The Opposition Will Unite To Win One
The five seats of the Upper House of the Parliament in Bihar that will go to poll are becoming vacant on April 9
By Dev Raj
Published : February 28, 2026 at 6:51 PM IST
Patna: The elections to five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar scheduled for March 16 have boiled down to two fundamental questions – will the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) be able to lure three Opposition MLAs to sweep all the seats, or will the Opposition manage to put up a united front to grab one of them?
As per the formula under the proportional representation system for election to the Rajya Sabha, this time 41 'first-preference' votes are needed in the 243-member Assembly to win each of the five seats. Every MLA (voter) has a single transferable vote, and they can rank candidates as per their preference.
The numbers game and the NDA
The NDA has 202 MLAs, while the Opposition has 41, of which 35 belong to the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) or the Grand Alliance, five are of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and one is of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
On the basis of the numbers, the NDA has the required strength to win four of the five seats, but will need the support of three MLAs from outside its fold to win the fifth one. This can happen only when at least three Opposition legislators either crossover, or there is split in one of the Opposition parties, and the new faction supports the ruling coalition.
The situation becomes interesting as political parties can issue a whip in Rajya Sabha elections and direct their MLAs on whom to vote.
Moreover, the 'open ballot system' is used in voting, which means the legislators have to show their votes to their authorised party representatives before casting them. Those who violate the whip could be disqualified under the Xth Schedule of the Constitution.
Several NDA leaders have claimed over the last couple of months that the Opposition parties in the state were poised for splits. Some of them hinted at an imminent break in the Congress, which has six MLAs.
"Just wait and watch. Many of the Opposition MLAs are impressed by the development and welfare in Bihar under the NDA rule. They will vote for our candidates, and we will win all five Rajya Sabha seats," a senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader told ETV Bharat.
Where does the Opposition stand?
Among the Opposition, the break-up of MLAs in INDIA or the Grand Alliance includes 25 from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), six from Congress, two from CPI(ML), and one each from the CPI(M) and the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) and totals to 35. The AIMIM has five seats, and the BSP has one, but they are outside the Grand Alliance fold.
If the entire Opposition sticks together, it can manage to win one of the Rajya Sabha seats, else will witness the NDA emerge victorious on all of them.
However, RJD national working president and Leader of Opposition in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, has already announced that his party-led alliance will field its own candidate for the fifth seat.
It effectively means that the RJD will put up a candidate, but also leaves it to worry about arranging the other six seats required to win the seat. It will need the support of AIMIM and BSP to win.
On the other hand, AIMIM Bihar unit president and MLA Akhtarul Iman has also asserted that his party will field a candidate in the election to the Council of States. Knowing that his party is far behind in the number game, he has appealed to the RJD and other Opposition parties for support. He also met Tejashwi on Friday evening over it.
"I have requested Tejashwi and the RJD to support us in the Rajya Sabha polls. We will return the favour in future. We are going to hold a meeting in Patna on Sunday to discuss the issue and take a decision on it," Iman told ETV Bharat.
AIMIM leaders said that their national president, Asaduddin Owaisi, will decide whom to field in the Rajya Sabha election.
The vacancies and the election
The five seats of the Upper House of the Parliament in Bihar that will go to poll are becoming vacant on April 9 with the retirement of Amarendra Dhari Singh and Prem Chand Gupta of the RJD, Union minister Ram Nath Thakur and Rajya Sabha deputy chairman Harivansh from Janata Dal United (JDU), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha.
The notification for the election was issued on Thursday (February 26). The last date for nominations is March 5, and polling will be held at the Bihar Legislative Assembly on March 16. Counting of votes, if required, will be done in the evening on the day of the voting.
Neither the NDA nor the Opposition has announced its candidates so far.
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