Monsoon Set To Cover Entire Country In 2-3 Days; IMD Warns Of Extremely Heavy Rain
India's rainfall deficit has reduced to 12%, with the IMD forecasting heavy rain, a flash-flood risk and full monsoon coverage | Ankita Kumari reports.
Published : July 8, 2026 at 2:24 PM IST
|Updated : July 8, 2026 at 3:12 PM IST
New Delhi: As India's rainfall deficit narrowed to 12 per cent after the first week of July recorded above-normal monsoon activity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday forecast widespread rainfall across large parts of the country over the next few days.
Extremely heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, while the southwest monsoon is expected to cover the remaining parts of the country within the next two to three days.
The latest INSAT-3DS thermal infrared satellite imagery released by the IMD showed extensive cloud cover over central, eastern and northern India, with dense cloud bands stretching across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and the Bay of Bengal, indicating active monsoon conditions over much of the country.
The weather office said the southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of Gujarat and additional areas of Rajasthan and Haryana.
"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of North Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, and hence entire country during next 2-3 days," the IMD said.
Rainfall Deficit Narrows To 12%
The improved rainfall comes as the Centre reviewed the progress of the monsoon and kharif season at a high-level meeting chaired by Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister P K Mishra.
According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office, the onset of the monsoon over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra was delayed by about 10 days.
"However, with rainfall till July 7, the all-India deficit is down to -12 per cent. The first week of July has seen above-normal monsoon activity. Weak to moderate El Nino is expected in July and August," the PMO said.
Officials also noted that an El Nino year does not necessarily result in below-normal rainfall and said the overall monsoon situation is being closely monitored as July accounts for more than 30 per cent of the season's rainfall.
Weather Systems Driving Rainfall
IMD scientist Akhil Srivastav said monsoon conditions remain favourable, particularly over northern and central India, due to multiple weather systems working simultaneously.
"A low-pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression and has now weakened into a cyclonic circulation. This system has increased rainfall activity over eastern India, central India and the west coast, particularly Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha," he said.
According to the IMD's morning bulletin, the well-marked low-pressure area now lies over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh and is likely to weaken gradually. At the same time, the seasonal trough extends from southwest Rajasthan to Bangladesh, while an offshore trough from south Gujarat to central Kerala and a western disturbance over northwest India are continuing to keep monsoon conditions active across large parts of the country.
Srivastav said Maharashtra and Gujarat are likely to continue receiving heavy rainfall, which may disrupt operations. He urged people to follow IMD advisories and colour-coded alerts, avoid taking shelter under trees or weak structures during thunderstorms, and check traffic conditions before travelling.
Heavy Rain Likely Across Northwest, Central, East And South India
The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall across several parts of northwest India over the next few days, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan until July 11.
On Wednesday, heavy rainfall is likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan, while East Rajasthan could receive very heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40-60 kmph are also likely over parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan. Moderate to intense lightning activity has also been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India: The well-marked low-pressure system will keep monsoon activity vigorous over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha over the next few days.
The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall likely over parts of the state on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is also expected over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning. Officials said the weather system is expected to weaken gradually, but widespread rainfall will continue before easing.
West Coast: Konkan and Goa, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra and Saurashtra & Kutch are expected to remain among the wettest regions during the current monsoon spell.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra, while isolated places in Gujarat, Konkan and Goa could receive extremely heavy rainfall. The IMD has also forecast thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50-70 kmph over parts of Gujarat.
The weather office warned that intense rainfall could trigger urban flooding, waterlogging and traffic disruptions in low-lying areas.
East And Northeast India: The active monsoon is expected to bring widespread rainfall across Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and the northeastern states over the coming week.
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall has also been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, while Bihar, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to witness heavy rain at isolated places.
The IMD warned that continuous rainfall could lead to overflowing rivers, localised flooding and landslides in vulnerable hilly districts across the Northeast.
Southern States: Monsoon activity is expected to remain active across peninsular India, with Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and interior Karnataka likely to receive widespread rainfall over the next few days.
Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and parts of interior Karnataka. Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka may receive very heavy rainfall, while thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50-70 kmph are likely over Karnataka, Telangana and parts of Tamil Nadu.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are also expected over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
Red Alerts And Flash Flood Risk
For Wednesday, the IMD has issued red alerts for Palghar in Maharashtra and Aravalli, Sabar Kantha, Navsari, Valsad, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman in Gujarat, where extremely heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of around 60 kmph are very likely.
The weather office has also warned of a moderate flash flood risk over parts of Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, North and South Goa, Pune, Nashik, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Bharuch, Indore, Dewas, Dhar, Hoshangabad, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi during the next 24 hours.
A low-to-moderate flash flood risk has also been forecast for parts of Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram, where heavy rainfall could trigger surface runoff, inundation of low-lying areas and landslides.
Climate Change, Kharif Sowing and Safety Advisory
Experts say the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events reflects a changing climate, with India witnessing more intense rainfall over fewer days. Such events have become more common in recent years, often leading to floods, landslides and disruption of normal life.
Although El Nino is expected to strengthen during the monsoon season, weather experts said its impact could still be moderated depending on ocean-atmosphere conditions. While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently remains neutral, a shift towards a positive phase later in the season could help offset some of El Niño's impact on the monsoon.
An ICICI Bank report said the monsoon has gathered momentum in July despite uneven rainfall across the country. As of July 6, cumulative rainfall stood at 20 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), but activity has improved significantly over the past few weeks.
According to the report, East and Northeast India continue to face the highest rainfall deficit at 41 per cent below normal, while rainfall has improved in Northwest India (19 per cent below normal), Central India (5 per cent below normal) and South India, which has recorded 15 per cent above-normal rainfall.
The report noted that 17 of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions are still rain-deficient, while 16 have received normal rainfall and three have recorded excess rainfall. States such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal have received normal rainfall so far, while Tamil Nadu has recorded excess rainfall.
Despite the recent improvement, kharif sowing is 20.8 per cent lower than last year, with 35.1 million hectares covered as of July 5, compared to 44.3 million hectares during the same period last year, mainly due to delayed monsoon rains in key agricultural states. Rice, pulses and coarse cereals have recorded the sharpest decline in acreage, though improving rainfall and rising reservoir levels are expected to support sowing in the coming weeks.
The PMO said the Centre is closely monitoring the monsoon situation, particularly since July accounts for more than 30 per cent of the season's total rainfall. During the high-level review meeting, officials said contingency plans have been updated for 262 vulnerable districts, while weekly Crop Weather Watch meetings are being held to monitor rainfall, reservoir levels, crop sowing, pest attacks and input availability.
Fishermen, Residents Advised To Remain Cautious
The IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the northwest, central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, including waters off the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal, until sea conditions improve. Strong winds and rough seas are also likely over parts of the Arabian Sea.
Residents in areas prone to heavy rainfall have been asked to remain alert for waterlogging, urban flooding, reduced visibility, traffic congestion, landslides, and falling rocks, particularly in hilly regions. The weather office said even moderate rainfall of 5-15 mm per hour could inundate low-lying areas, disrupt traffic, damage crops left in the open and affect weak structures.
People have been advised to check traffic conditions before travelling, avoid waterlogged roads, stay away from weak buildings and trees during thunderstorms, and follow official weather advisories and colour-coded alerts.
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