Missiles Over West Asia: Why The US-Israel Attack On Iran Is A Strategic Test For India

New Delhi: The dramatic escalation in West Asia following US and Israeli strikes on Iran Saturday has pushed the region to the brink of a wider conflict – and placed India in a deeply complex strategic position.

With US President Donald Trump confirming “major combat operations” and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launching retaliatory missile and drone strikes toward Israel, the crisis threatens to reshape regional geopolitical stability. For New Delhi, the consequences go far beyond diplomacy – touching energy security, diaspora safety, maritime trade routes and its carefully balanced ties across rival blocs.

Saturday’s developments come days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his visit to Israel, where he reiterated India’s long-standing position that dialogue and peaceful resolution remain the only viable path forward. During his visit, Modi emphasised that peace in West Asia is tied to India’s security and that dialogue reflects “the call of the Global South”.

West Asia remains central to India’s energy lifeline. A wider conflict involving Iran could threaten maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments. Any disruption would likely push crude prices sharply higher.

India, as one of the world’s largest energy importers, is highly vulnerable to oil price spikes. Elevated prices would widen India’s current account deficit, increase inflationary pressures, and complicate fiscal management

Even if physical supply remains uninterrupted, war-risk premiums and insurance costs for tankers could increase import bills.

Apart from this, nearly nine million Indians live and work across West Asia. While Israel hosts a smaller Indian community compared to Gulf states, a broader regional war could spill over into countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

India may need to prepare contingency evacuation plans similar to past operations conducted during crises in Yemen during the 2015 conflict and Lebanon during the 2006 war.

Late on Saturday evening, India expressed deep concern at the recent developments in Iran and the Gulf region.

“We urge all sides to exercise restraint, avoid escalation, and prioritise the safety of civilians,” a statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs reads. “Dialogue and diplomacy should be pursued to de-escalate tensions and address underlying issues. Sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states must be respected. Our missions in the region are in touch with Indian nationals and have issued appropriate advisories asking them to remain vigilant, stay in contact with the missions, and follow local security guidance.”

Earlier in the day, the Indian Embassy in Tel Aviv issued an advisory urging all Indian nationals in Israel to exercise utmost caution and remain vigilant at all times.

Indian nationals are strongly advised to strictly adhere to the safety guidelines and instructions issued by the Israeli authorities and the Home Front Command,” the advisory reads. “All Indian nationals should remain in close proximity to designated shelters and familiarise themselves with the nearest protected spaces in their area of residence or work. Indian nationals are advised to avoid all non-essential and unnecessary travel within Israel until further notice. Citizens are encouraged to monitor local news, official announcements, and emergency alerts regularly.”

On February 23, the Indian Embassy in Tehran, citing an earlier advisory issued on January 5, had urged all Indian nationals who are currently in Iran (students, pilgrims, business persons and tourists) to leave Iran by available means of transport, including commercial flights.

But the fact of the matter is that any instability in the Gulf and the West Asian Arab economies would also affect remittance flows – a key component of India’s foreign exchange earnings.

India is now also faced with the challenge of strategic balancing between Israel, Iran and the US. India maintains strong and growing ties with Israel in defence, agriculture and technology. At the same time, it has historically maintained civilisational and energy ties with Iran, including connectivity interests through the Chabahar port, in which New Delhi has invested heavily.

It is obvious that a prolonged conflict will complicate India’s diplomatic space. Open support for Israel could strain ties with Iran. Then again, silence or neutrality could disappoint strategic partners in Washington and Tel Aviv. And in the face of all this, escalation between the US and Iran risks further sanctions regimes, affecting India’s economic engagement options.

C Uday Bhaskar, strategic affairs expert and the Director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies think tank, expressed the view that the consequences of the current attack on Iran will be wide-spectrum: from energy and maritime security to diaspora safety and a churn in the regional strategic grid.

“Immediately, energy stability will be a high priority,” Bhaskar told ETV Bharat. “India consumes about two billion barrels annually, and with each $1 increase in crude prices, it would add roughly $2 billion to the import bill.”

He said that disruption to maritime security in the Arabian Sea will have an adverse impact on maritime trade.

“Insurance prices will go up, and re-routing around Africa is a possibility,” he said.

Bhaskar further said that India’s credibility as a non-aligned state will also be affected.

“This attack on Iran will be a stress test for Indian foreign policy and the sagacity of the political leadership, he said. “Endorsing the US-Israeli action to denuclearise Iran and engineer a regime change will be a heavy cross for India in the long run.”

According to Muddassir Quamar, Associate Professor at the Centre of West Asian Studies in the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Saturday’s developments will be very concerning for India because of the possibility of the expansion of the war.

“Iran has attacked US bases in the Gulf area,” Quamar said. “If attacks keep happening in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, the Houthis in Yemen, the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilisation Force of Iraq may join the war. This will lead to the expansion of the regional war in West Asia.”

He said that, if this happens, oil supplies and maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea will be affected.

“This can hit India’s economy as well as other Asian economies,” he said.

Quamar further stated that with the situation escalating fast, Indian missions in the region are issuing advisories to Indian nationals.

As far as India’s strategic balancing act in the region is concerned, he said that India’s interests are more aligned with the US and Israel than with Iran.

“India would be more concerned about Indian citizens in the Gulf countries,” Quamar said. “If Indian casualties happen, it will adversely affect India’s ties with Iran.”

Taken together, the unfolding crisis presents India with a multidimensional challenge – economic vulnerability, diaspora safety, diplomatic balancing and long-term strategic recalibration. At a time when India is deepening ties with Israel while preserving links with Iran and the Gulf, the latest West Asia crisis underscores a hard reality: stability in the region is not just a diplomatic preference for India, it is a strategic necessity.