June Could Be India’s Most Unpredictable Month, Say Experts

New Delhi: India could be heading into one of its most unusual and complex weather periods in recent years, with meteorologists warning of a rare combination of below-normal monsoon rainfall, intense heat stress, high humidity, severe thunderstorms and possible delays in monsoon progress.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast below-normal rainfall for June and downgraded its seasonal southwest monsoon outlook to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), raising concerns about the impact of a developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, weather experts say parts of the country could experience dangerous humidity levels, dust storms, lightning and powerful thunderstorms during the transition into the monsoon season.

The unusual mix of weather extremes has led some experts to describe the situation as a “Great June Weather Clash,” a collision between heat, moisture and atmospheric instability occurring simultaneously across different parts of India.

Monsoon Forecast Turns Weaker

According to the IMD’s latest long-range forecast, rainfall during June is likely to remain below normal, at less than 92% of the monthly average. The broader June-to-September monsoon season is also expected to be weaker than normal, with all-India rainfall projected at around 90% of the Long Period Average.

The primary reason is the growing likelihood of El Niño conditions developing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, El Niño events tend to weaken the Indian monsoon circulation and are often associated with rainfall deficits, delayed sowing and increased heat stress.

Climate models indicate that weak El Niño conditions may emerge during June and strengthen gradually through July and August.

India's Climate Vulnerability Hotspots (ETV Bharat Graphics)

Heat and Humidity Could Create Dangerous Conditions

While temperatures across north India may not reach record-breaking levels immediately, experts warn that humidity could become an equally important factor.

Meteorologically, temperatures around 39°C to 41°C combined with increasing moisture from the Bay of Bengal can create severe heat stress. Under such conditions, the “feels-like” temperature can become significantly higher than the actual air temperature.

Geospatial expert Rajesh Paul said India is witnessing a rare interaction between extreme heat and incoming moisture.

“Extreme heat over north India is interacting with moisture from the Bay of Bengal, creating dangerous humidity levels and severe thunderstorms at the same time. While temperatures may stay around 40 degrees Celsius, the perceived temperature could approach 50 degrees in some areas. Meanwhile, concerns over a weaker monsoon and El Niño conditions are raising the risk of uneven rainfall and heightened weather volatility across the country,” he said.

The phenomenon is linked to what scientists call the wet-bulb effect, where high humidity prevents sweat from evaporating efficiently, making it harder for the human body to cool itself.

Experts Urge Caution Over Extreme Heat Claims

However, some climate experts caution against assuming that extreme humid heat is already imminent across northwest India.

Prof. S.N. Mishra, climate change expert and Visiting Professor at TERI University, said current atmospheric conditions do not yet indicate a major heat-stress emergency over the region. “The monsoon has appeared somewhat elusive right from the beginning. Based on the present synoptic situation, the actual onset and subsequent progress of the monsoon may get delayed by a few days or remain weak,” Mishra told ETV Bharat.

He explained that repeated western disturbances have kept temperatures below normal across much of northwest India and maintained northwesterly winds, limiting moisture intrusion from the Bay of Bengal. “This is preventing very high feels-like temperatures. Higher humidity generally requires sustained easterly or monsoonal flow, which remains elusive at present,” he said.

Mishra added that the absence of intense heat over northwest India, while providing relief to residents, may also indicate a weaker seasonal heat low, an important driver that helps pull the monsoon northward.

Thunderstorms, Dust Storms and Lightning Threat

Even as rainfall remains below normal overall, scientists expect the pre-monsoon period to remain highly active.

The interaction between hot land surfaces and incoming moisture can generate towering cumulonimbus clouds, the thunderstorm systems responsible for intense rainfall, lightning, hailstorms and damaging winds. Meteorologists say these storms may produce sudden squalls, dust storms and localised heavy rainfall events despite the broader seasonal rainfall deficit.

Some atmospheric models suggest strong vertical instability over parts of north and central India, creating conditions favourable for severe thunderstorms during the opening weeks of June. Such weather systems can bring wind gusts exceeding 70 to 90 kmph in isolated locations, along with dangerous lightning activity.

Monsoon May Arrive, But Progress Could Slow

Another factor worrying forecasters is the possibility of atmospheric blocking patterns over the Arabian Sea.

Weather experts say anti-cyclonic circulation in the upper atmosphere can sometimes slow the advance of monsoon currents even after the monsoon reaches Kerala.

This means India could witness a paradoxical situation where the monsoon officially arrives in the south, while large parts of central and northern India continue experiencing dry conditions, heat and dust storms. “The more important question is not just when the monsoon begins, but how it progresses after onset,” Mishra said. “Even in a season where below-normal rainfall is predicted, the subsequent evolution and movement of the monsoon system will ultimately determine rainfall distribution and the overall seasonal outcome.”

Climate Change Making Weather More Complex

Environmental scientist Hishmi Jamil Husain said the emerging pattern highlights how climate risks are increasingly occurring together rather than separately.

“This June weather clash is a powerful reminder that climate risks are no longer defined by a single hazard,” Husain told ETV Bharat. “We are witnessing the simultaneous interaction of extreme heat, oppressive humidity, severe convective storms and erratic monsoon systems. The result is a compound weather event where the human body experiences far greater stress than indicated by air temperature alone.”

According to him, the combination of heat, humidity, delayed rainfall and severe thunderstorms poses challenges not only for public health but also for agriculture, water management and urban infrastructure.

A Challenging Start to the Monsoon Season

For farmers, disaster managers and policymakers, the coming weeks could prove crucial. A weaker monsoon forecast, coupled with heightened heatwave risk and localised severe weather events, means India may face a season marked by sharp contrasts, intense storms in some regions, rainfall deficits in others and fluctuating heat stress across large parts of the country.

While meteorologists stress that long-range forecasts do not rule out periods of heavy rain or active monsoon spells, the overall outlook suggests that June 2026 could begin with a complex battle between heat, humidity, storms and a potentially sluggish monsoon, a weather pattern that scientists will be watching closely in the weeks ahead.

Also Read:

1. India Likely To Witness Lowest Monsoon Rains In 11 Years, Raising Concerns For Agriculture And Food Security
2. Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain Alert In Most Parts Of India Till June 3; IMD Forecasts 90% Of Long Period Average Rainfall This Monsoon