Joshimath Still In Danger Zone, Subsidence On, Need Continuous Monitoring: Scientists

Dehradun: If you live at Joshimath (now Jyotirmath) in Chamoli district of Uttarakhand, the ground beneath your feet may not be safe. Reason: the process of the town's gradual shifting continues unabated. The town had garnered attention in 2023 due to land subsidence.

According to scientists at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, the rate at which the slope is moving is extremely slow at present. But heavy rainfall during the monsoon season could accelerate this movement. Consequently, Joshimath could once again begin to give way, posing a challenge in the future.

Cracks had begun to appear inside homes at Joshimath as early as 2022, signalling the onset of land subsidence in the town. No one took it seriously. However, in 2023, when massive fissures began to open up in the ground, the entire world's attention turned toward Joshimath, and the issue was finally treated with the gravity it deserved. Subsequently, it evolved into a global concern.

Over 800 Houses Developed Cracks

The severity of the situation in 2023 can be gauged from the fact that land subsidence in Joshimath caused cracks to appear in over 800 houses. Several hotels had to be demolished. Water began to seep out from beneath the ground at various locations across the town, creating an atmosphere of panic. In response, the government constituted a 35-member expert team comprising representatives from various agencies, including the NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority), GSI (Geological Survey of India), and CBRI (Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee).

Joshimath Land Subsidence Report Made Public Following HC Order

This expert team conducted a meticulous study of the land subsidence at Joshimath and submitted its findings to the government. As the report had not been made public until recently, the matter was taken to the Nainital High Court. Following the court orders, reports from eight different institutions — detailing the actual causes behind the land subsidence at Joshimath — have now been made public.

NDMA Report

This report identifies inadequate drainage systems and anthropogenic activities as the primary causes of the land subsidence at Joshimath. In a subsequent report released by the NDMA, it was revealed that out of 2,152 houses at Joshimath, 1,403 had been affected. Of these, 472 houses were deemed to require reconstruction, while 931 required repairs. Furthermore, 181 buildings that had become critically unstable were evacuated. However, as time passed, residents began returning to and residing in their old homes. Consequently, a significant threat now looms over these individuals as the monsoon season approaches.

Subsidence Upto 14.5 Metres

Studies conducted during the initial phase revealed that land subsidence in various parts of Joshimath has ranged from a few centimetres to as much as 14.5 metres. Additionally, experts noted that the town of Joshimath is situated atop debris from ancient landslides, a factor contributing to the continuous sinking of the ground. Currently, Manish Mehta, a scientist at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, is also conducting a study on the situation at Joshimath.

"The initial phase of our study has disclosed that the Joshimath region is not situated on landslide debris, but rather atop a mound of debris left behind by a retreating glacier. In other words, the debris left in place following the glacier's retreat—estimated to be approximately 7,000 years old — forms the foundation upon which the town of Joshimath is built," said Mehta.

Current Status Of Joshimath

Vineet Gahalaut, director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (Dehradun), says that the study report regarding the land subsidence at Joshimath is available on the website of the USDMA (Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority). "While the ongoing process of slope subsidence at Joshimath cannot be halted entirely, continuous monitoring of the area should have been maintained," said Gahalaut. "What will we do if the slope begins to slide rapidly during the next monsoon season or in the immediate future? Are we going to wait for cracks to reappear in the houses?"

He added, "We need to have a robust monitoring system in place so that, in the event of slope movement, we can immediately alert residents that the time has come for them to evacuate. Work needs to be undertaken in this direction."

Joshimath Is Still Subsiding

Gahalaut also said that merely identifying houses that have developed cracks and declaring them 'vulnerable' will not suffice. Although he is currently unsure whether people are still residing in these specific homes, a misconception persists among the public that Joshimath has ceased to subside. However, in reality, the town continues to slide and the rate of subsidence is currently very slow.

"The fear is this: Does the rate of slope movement accelerate during the monsoon season? What if the speed of subsidence in Joshimath increases once again amidst the monsoon rain, leading to further slippage in certain areas? What is our contingency plan for such a scenario? There is an urgent need to discuss, deliberate upon, and implement measures regarding this. Everyone talks about 'carrying capacity', yet there is a persistent shortfall when it comes to its actual implementation," said Gahlaut.

Toe Protection Work Underway

Vinod Kumar Suman, secretary of the Uttarakhand Disaster Management Department, says work has commenced on addressing the damage caused by land subsidence at Joshimath — specifically, in those areas where the ground was subsiding.