Interview | 'Iran's Calculated Move Is To Pressure The US Through Regional Economic Leverage': Expert On US-Israel-Iran War

Hyderabad: In this exclusive interview with Eenadu-ETV Bharat, Raja Karthikeya, a former international civil servant, argues that the US-Israel war on Iran is the culmination of a decades-long strategic clash rooted in regime change ambitions, Israeli security concerns, and Iran's existential fight to preserve its system and territorial integrity.

While dismissing the possibility of a Third World War, Raja Karthikeya warns of severe regional instability, economic disruption, and heightened political risk, particularly affecting oil-dependent economies such as India. He decodes India's delicate balancing act between its strategic partnership with Israel and historic ties with Iran, examines the resilience and internal challenges of Iran's political system amid leadership losses and public discontent, and explains Iran's strikes on Gulf countries as a calculated attempt to pressure the US through regional economic leverage.

Excerpts from the Interview

Question: What are the main reasons behind the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran?

Raja Karthikeya: In my view, the crisis in West Asia has been in the making for a long time, almost 46 years. There is a clear clash of interests between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

The US and Israel have made it clear, as President Trump has said, that they seek a change of the entire system in Iran. They call it regime change. Israel says it sees a security threat from Iran and therefore all possible threats, whether from missiles or from groups that Iran supports in the region, must be eliminated. For the US, protection of Israel is a core security interest in the region.

For Iran, this is almost an existential war. Iran is also concerned about preserving its geography. The map of Iran has remained unchanged for about 150 years, and there is a desire to keep the country together.

The interests of the US, Israel, and Iran are completely incompatible. Sadly, there is very little middle ground. We cannot even say there was a breakdown of talks, because negotiations were still going on in Geneva last week, and another round was possible in Vienna this week. But suddenly, airstrikes were launched, and now the possibility of talks seems very remote.

Question: Will this war lead to a Third World War?

Raja Karthikeya: I do not believe so, and I certainly hope not.

However, there is a possibility that this war will create extreme challenges within West Asia. The region has prospered due to oil wealth and economic policies. For example, the UAE has done very well. But now, political risk in the region has increased significantly. Insurance premiums will go up. There will be disruptions to airlines and shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

This will impact not just regional economies but particularly Asian economies, certainly India, which depends heavily on oil supplies from the region. India's economy could be affected if the war continues for a long time.

Question: Iran is a friendly country to India, and Israel also has good relations with India. In this scenario, what should India's stand be?

Raja Karthikeya: No manual tells you exactly what position to take in a conflict. Ideally, you should maintain cordial relations with all countries at all times. But in reality, this is not always possible.

India has tried to balance its relationships with Israel and Iran, particularly in the last 10 years. India has a strong defence relationship with Israel and is moving toward a comprehensive strategic partnership. On the other hand, India has age-old historic ties with Iran.

India also has the second-largest Shia population in the world after Iran. India and Iran signed a lease agreement for the port of Chabahar, which is crucial for India to access Central Asia and potentially European markets. So both relationships are important.

However, at present, India has been less vocal in expressing support for Iran. While it has expressed concern, developments such as the Prime Minister's call to the UAE suggest that India may be taking a position without explicitly stating it. We will have to see how the conflict unfolds.

The longer the conflict continues, countries like India, which are not directly involved, will suffer regardless of which side gains the upper hand.

Question: Khamenei and top Iranian leaders have been killed. What is the next target of Israel and the US?

Raja Karthikeya: That is something you would have to ask the Americans and the Israelis. Their stated goal is the complete change of the system, or regime, in Iran. The question is whether they have the capacity to achieve it. In Iran's system, the Supreme Leader is the highest authority. However, the system has been preparing for this kind of conflict for a long time. We saw how quickly a transition council was created with the President, the Chief Justice, and a senior cleric to guide the country toward the election of the next leader.

Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has gone through several crises and appears fairly resilient. The challenge will be whether it can exercise authority over military decisions while nearly every part of the country is being bombed.

Another concern for the Iranian government is public opinion. Following recent protests and the government's response, there is significant discontent. Some people want reforms, some want a complete change of the system, and others support it. There is no consensus, but there appears to be broad-based support for some form of change.

Question: How do you manage public opinion while facing airstrikes and being in a state of war?

Raja Karthikeya: This will be a major challenge for the Iranian system. As for US and Israeli targets, it is difficult to say. However, they will likely try to take advantage of any internal challenges Iran faces at this time.

Question: Iran is attacking Gulf countries. How will this affect the world, particularly India?

Raja Karthikeya: One possible reason Iran has launched attacks on Gulf countries, which say they did not participate in US and Israeli strikes, is the presence of US military bases in those countries. There are close to 50,000 US soldiers in the region.

Notably, Iran did not launch strikes on Oman or directly on countries like Syria, where there are no US bases. Instead, it has focused on countries that host US forces.

Iran's stated reason is that it is targeting the US military presence. However, another possible explanation is that these Gulf countries influence the US. Iran may be calculating that these countries will pressure the US to stop the war because their own economies are being hit.

For example, the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia stopped production after a drone attack. Kuwait has closed its airspace. In Dubai, the hotel industry has been badly affected. These countries depend heavily on oil production, tourism, and their role as transit hubs for international airlines and shipping.

As Iranian attacks continue, stopping the war will become increasingly important for them. Iran appears to be counting on these Gulf countries to weigh in with the US to halt the conflict.

Also Read

1. Fragmented Iran Unites After Khamenei Assassination; Will Muslim Neighbours Align With US-Israel Against Tehran Or Stay Neutral?
2. US-Israel Aggression On Iran: Loop Of War And Resistance Will Continue