Rising Winter Heat Threatens India’s Wheat Harvest And Food Security: Study
India’s wheat growth rate has sharply declined across major producing states due to a 0.5 degrees Celsius rise in winter temperatures per decade.
Published : June 1, 2026 at 5:10 PM IST
New Delhi: Amid rising winter temperatures and warmer nights, India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, with an annual output of 107 million tonnes, faces threat to the crop yields and grain quality.
A latest study by Climate Trends, ‘Wheat Under Stress: Climate Change, Rising Heat, and Adaptation Pathways in India’s Major Wheat-Growing States', shows that winter temperatures in key wheat-growing states like Punjab and Haryana rise by up to 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade and February temperatures climb 0.69 degrees per decade, which badly impacts the overall wheat production, threatening food security.
The study also assesses how rising temperatures, particularly warmer winters, increasing night-time temperatures, and more frequent terminal heat events are already disrupting wheat growth cycles across the five major wheat-producing states: Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
The findings come just days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised the 2026 monsoon forecast down to 90 per cent from the earlier 92 per cent of the long-period average. This places the kharif outlook in the below-normal category. It also claims that due to the strongest El Nino event since 2015-16, India’s food systems are already entering a period of compounding climate-induced stress.
The decadal growth rate of wheat in key producing states, including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat, has shown a decline over the past three decades (1995-2025), particularly in the northwestern regions of Punjab and Haryana. In Haryana, the growth rate fell from 30% during 1986-95 to -2.6% between 2015 and 2025, with Punjab showing a similar downward trend.
Nighttime temperatures have risen faster than daytime temperatures across all wheat-growing states. In Gujarat, night temperatures are rising nearly three times faster than daytime temperatures. In Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, minimum temperature increases are the sharpest of any variable measured. Night-time warming increases plant respiration rates, causes premature maturity, and depletes the carbohydrate reserves that convert into grain weight during the filling stage. The crop exhausts itself before it matures.
“One of the most under-recognised and worrying threats to India’s wheat production is the steady increase in night-time temperatures. Our analysis revealed that minimum temperatures are rising faster than maximum temperatures across major wheat-growing states. Warmer nights increase respiration and create physiological stress on plants. This means that the plant exhausts its carbohydrate reserves instead of converting them into grain,” said Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead, Climate Trends and lead author of the study.
“At the same time abrupt warming in February and March is shortening the grain-filling window. This accelerates maturity, resulting in shrivelled kernels, lower grain quality and reduced yields. What we are witnessing is not simply hotter weather; it is the gradual alteration of seasonal patterns that made India’s wheat systems productive and predictable,” she said.
Ram Singh, a marginal farmer from Gujarat, said that farming wheat has become much harder than before as winters are not cold enough, resulting in seeds not germinating properly in the high October heat.
“When the crop is growing, sudden heat in February or March dries the grains too early, reducing both yield and quality. And if that wasn’t enough, unexpected rain during harvest can ruin the entire crop lying in the fields,” he said.
Singh also raised concern about increasing pest attacks, making the storage difficult due to humidity.
“The grain doesn’t last as long as it used to. Earlier, we could store wheat for years; now it spoils within months. With high losses, rising costs and so much uncertainty, farming feels like a constant risk. Some families in my village are even leaving agriculture because it is becoming too difficult to survive. Others are trying to adjust by sowing earlier, changing crop varieties or following weather advisories,” the farmer said.
Prof. Surendra Kumar Dhaka, University of Delhi, said that over the past few decades, a clear shift has been witnessed in climatic patterns that are directly affecting wheat productivity. “Winters are becoming warmer and shorter, which disrupts the crop’s natural growth cycle. At the same time, we are seeing an increase in unseasonal rainfall during the harvest period, often linked to delayed and intensified western disturbances. This untimely rain raises humidity levels, damages standing crops, and affects grain quality through discolouration and fungal infections,” he said.
Prof. Dhaka termed the scenario a “compounding effect”, which means warmer winters speeding up crop growth, unseasonal rains adding moisture at the wrong time, and elevated humidity amplifying damage both in the field and in storage. “This combination is significantly affecting grain quality and farmer returns, highlighting the need for better post-harvest management and climate-resilient strategies,” he added.
Umendra Dutt, Executive Director, Kheti Virasat Mission (KVM), said, “Climate change impacts on wheat cultivation in Punjab and Haryana are no longer projections—they are clearly visible on the ground. Farmers are experiencing rising temperatures, shortening winters, and increasing night-time heat, all of which are affecting the crop at every stage—from poor germination to reduced tillering and, most critically, shrivelled grains during the grain-filling phase.”
Dutt also blamed unseasonal rainfall and humidity during harvest for damaging grain quality and increasing post-harvest losses. However, he said, this was not merely a climatic challenge but reflected a deeper crisis of soil health and ecological imbalance.
“Decades of chemical-intensive agriculture have weakened the living strength of our soils, reducing their capacity to buffer heat, conserve moisture, and support resilient crops. As a result, wheat has become far more vulnerable to even small climatic variations,” he said.
Dutt said there was an urgent need for course correction in the country’s agricultural paradigm and food security approach. He stressed the need for adopting input-intensive, yield-centric systems towards soil-centric, climate-resilient farming.
“Practices such as mulching under ecological crop residue management, enhancement of soil organic matter, and use of indigenous seeds can significantly improve resilience to heat and moisture stress. Farmers who are adopting ecological and natural farming practices are, in fact, contributing to climate mitigation and long-term food security. They must be actively supported through policy measures, including a restructuring of MSP and the broader agricultural subsidy regime to incentivise soil regeneration, crop diversification, and sustainable farming systems. If we are serious about securing the future of wheat and food systems in India, supporting such transitions is not optional—it is essential,” he explained.
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